Crunch Time for EU with EVS and EU Green Deal

Ev fan

The EU has serious decisions to make on the EU Green Deal. EV adoption at best is about 15% of the market. The plan calls I think for 22% of the market in EV in 2024 and rapidly rising thereafter. Manufacturers aren't selling enough at current prices with the constraints that EU made batteries apparently cost 15k, and above the 78% mix Manufacturers are fined eur 15k for every additional ICE car produced?? Then of course you have Chinese companies now focusing on selling in Europe given their own market is maturing and getting highly competitive. The easy option would be to roll back on the Green Plan commitments. I sincerely hope that for the sake of the environment and the lead that the EU has taken up to now that some other solutions are found and pdq.

MrMusician18

I think a roll back on the green deal targets is far more likely than allowing Chinese car makers to make up the difference. The commission have said that what happened to solar in Europe will not be allowed to happen to car manufacturing - which was that it was better to allow cheap Chinese panels to flood the market and meet environmental targets vs protecting European manufacturing and jobs.

I think what we will see are the Chinese tariffed out of Europe at least until domestic manufacturers have caught up on price.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052679#Comment_122052679

You can't just put a new or higher tariff on Chinese cars. That would be against the GATT treaty that Ireland (and many other countries) have signed up to. The only tariffs you can put on are import duty (@10%) and VAT, and these already apply to all cars coming in from China

MrMusician18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052746#Comment_122052746

I think they can if they find that the reason they are cheaper is because of state subsidy or dumping. There's currently a 48.0% anti dumping tariff on Chinese bicycles I think for that reason.

Probably a reasonable case for anti dumping tariff since domestic demand in China has slowed generally.

That said, my "expertise" in international trade has lapsed since brexit is out of the headlines so I'm open to correction.

Notch000

which manufacturer will be first to have the balls and announce there pulling out of the European markets.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052793#Comment_122052793

And make all cars more expensive for everyone? There would be severe repercussions for any politician implementing that. You can do it the other way around though, like the USA have done. Subsidise cars made in the EU. No benefit of that for Ireland though.

shimadzu

No point penalizing the end user, the EU need to put pressure on car manufactures to create cars that target mainstream rather than the upper end of the market. Cars sold above 35K should have a luxury tax applied to encourage a greater focus on affordable transport. Adding tariffs to Chinese EVs will have a negative effect on EU environmental goals.

Ev fan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052900#Comment_122052900

The other big issue is that European manufacturers make a good bit of their income (up to 50% for VW?) from sales directly in China so this might limit options. EU wide subsidy might be a practical option like the US.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052798#Comment_122052798

Mitsubishi ~5 years ago. And they're coming back.

MrMusician18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052900#Comment_122052900

The USA actually does both. It applies 27.5% tariff to Chinese EVs while offering tax credits for domestic produced ones.

There are practically no Chinese EVs sold in the USA as a result.

drunkmonkey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052964#Comment_122052964

The incentive should be on safety whether that is drivers, occupants, pedestrians or the environment. Driving up the cost of safer cars is insane, not sure if it still goes on but manufacturers had to take safety equipment out of Irish cars due to VRT reasons. Utter madness.

munchkin_utd

funny this thread was started.

Theres a report just out from the European Court of Auditors stating that the 2035 ban on ICE may be needed to be rethought and/ or electric car prices need to halve to meet EV adoption targets, but also somehow not rely on chinese imports which would impact on the 3 million auto manufacturing jobs in Europe.

https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2024/0423/1445081-electric-cars/

Del2005

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053123#Comment_122053123

Doesn't happen anymore as the EU now requires all new cars to have a huge amount of standard safety features, which people complain about because they can't turn them off!, so all Irish cars are safe. Not like the good old days when people got to choose between ABS or CD player and most went with the CD player.

I don't think that the Chinese BEVs are as big a treat as people think, yet. The ports are full of them so they are having the same problem as every other manufacturer, no one wants a BEV. The people who wanted to buy BEVs have them, now they need to convert general public to wanting them and they don't want them. It's not helped by removing the grants and constant price cuts by manufactures.

munchkin_utd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053495#Comment_122053495

indeed, there was a radio article on the other night that Antwerp/ Zeebruge port is chocked with Chinese cars lying about the place, partially lack of demand, partially abusing the car park at the port along with a lack of distributor and sales network that they have nowhere to send the cars to await an end buyer except just leave them at the port taking up space.

This chinese trade rep is even admitting that they are almost literally dumping Evs in Europe because theres only so much domestic demand

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/04/11/unsold-chinese-evs-are-piling-up-at-european-ports/

masterK

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053435#Comment_122053435

Another example of clickbait, the headline states that E-car prices need to half but the actual article states the price of EV batteries need to half

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053654#Comment_122053654

Not even sure why it is saying that. Take a Tesla Model 3, €38.6k on the road. Is there even a comparable (size / spec) petrol / diesel on the market for that sort of money? And the serious savings only start after you've bought it

Even without the few grand subsidy, EVs are already at price parity. Or even beyond it. And prices of batteries are indeed coming further down.

Jizique

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053654#Comment_122053654

GiGivEn the collapse in lithium price, i suspect the battery price has already halved

munchkin_utd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053705#Comment_122053705

youre right, its a shedload of power for the money, but what do you do if you havent the money?

What is needed are more Astra Evs or Mgs with non sportscar power, at lower prices

eagerv

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053705#Comment_122053705

True, you wouldn't get much of a Golf, Civic etc for that price. And the Tesla is loaded with standard equipment. What other car within close price range comes with heat pump, heated/cooled leather(ish)😉 seats, memory electric seats/wheel, power boot, rear seat screen etc etc. And that's before you even look at the performance, economy and total cost of ownership.

prawnsambo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053818#Comment_122053818

But that's probably the lowest price possible for a car of that spec and range. The battery is still too much of a proportion of the cost for that to lower much. Smaller cars with a lower range could be produced for (say) 25k here. But the battery cost would still be a higher proportion of the overall. Battery prices have been dropping and have halved in the last seven years. But at $140/kWh, it's still a big percentage of the cost of the car and with the demand for more range is probably increasing as a percentage.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053869#Comment_122053869

Where do you get that figure of $140 / kWh? Pretty sure I read about a deal that Tesla did with BYD for the blade batteries in Berlin at $80 / kWh at pack level and that was a couple of years ago.

Even as an end user, you can buy good quality LiFePO4 cells from an EU supplier for €60 / kWh plus VAT today. And the production of sodium cells is only ramping up, they will be subtantially cheaper than that in a few years time

The price of cells will further go down, but this is irrelevant for the EV uptake imho. The only reason some manufacturers struggle to make a margin on EVs is because their production processes are not all that efficient and because they simply do not yet have the economies of scale that the likes of BYD and Tesla have…

prawnsambo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053957#Comment_122053957

From here. This is the global price, doesn't necessarily mean everyone is paying it. LiFePO4 is cheaper obviously, but not many are using them in EVs.

https://cleantechnica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/BNEF-battery-price-drop-chart.png

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053968#Comment_122053968

Ok well those are average prices - the big players pay far less than that. And from last year. This year alone has seen a substantial drop.

All budget cars already have, or should have, LiFePO4 or Sodium-ion batteries. No point comparing the expensive high performance lithium ion battery that goes into a Porsche Taycan, to what goes into a $20k Chinese econobox EV

Jizique

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052972#Comment_122052972

Not in a few years - they cut their profit target on China again at full year, it is probably closer to 20% now. Remember they own Porsche which is struggling in China.

Jizique

Dying to hear about the economies of scale at Tesla's factories which are probably only running at 50% utilisation - whether Berlin, Austin or Freemont, with China probably still around 75%

Gerrymandering reborn

Given the recent tensions between EU and China, I'm very sure the EU would happily push back the ICE ban date (which looks very likely) than allow Chinese to own the automotive sector in Europe

prawnsambo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053987#Comment_122053987

The average prices still give a very good indication of how battery prices have been dropping. And it's not been huge over the last few years. There was even a rise after covid in 2022.

Not sure I'd trust LFP yet. I know it's a very niche case, but I have one in my golf trolley. Went great for four years and then lost SOH alarmingly fast. Within about four weeks, went from normal to about half its range. Always was charged exactly according to the manufacturer's charging guidance.

unkel

LFP is far from niche. Pretty much all home storage and new grid attached storage is LFP. The number of cycles is several times higher than lithium ion and it can't go on fire. And it obviously is substantially cheaper.

And as always, batteries stand or fall with the way they are implemented. Your golf trolley most likely had a crap BMS / no battery cooling / heating. Same as most eBikes, mobile phones, etc. Likely dead or unusable within a couple of years. You get the picture. In cars this is much better. Even the worst car battery setup ever - the good old Leaf / Fluence - still have about 60-70% of range left after 14 years of zero battery conditioning. LFP literally lasts a lifetime, many times the life of a car.

Ev fan

Maybe the arrival of smaller cheaper EVs might boost things - eC3 - Renault 5 due to launch later this year - Dacia Spring? Renault 4? Kia EV3?? Could the VW ID2/ Cupra equivalent be faster tracked? Is Tesla Model 2 a dead duck?

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058348401/crunch-time-for-eu-with-evs-and-eu-green-deal

Maybe start mining for lithium and other necessary minerals in large open cast mines in Europe? With consequent pollution of water and air and so on.

Can't see that being too popular. Didn't RTE do a programme on lithium deposits in the south east a while back?

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122054880#Comment_122054880

Lithium mining in Europe

https://emag.directindustry.com/2022/11/03/lithium-what-are-the-main-mining-projects-in-europe/