‪Leinster Team Talk/Gossip/Rumours Thread IX: The Last Jordi [****]

So is anyone else considerably nervous about this one? As in, put a few quid on Sarries 1-12 at 3/1 to offset the devastation of losing nervous?

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I would never get against Leinster. On one of those betting websites.

Which website was it, by the way? Just so I know to avoid it.

While you are morally prohibited access to such sites by your soul, I am legally prohibited access to such sites by my host nation's government. All I can tell you is that Oddschecker lists that price as available on Skybet. How up-to-date that is both unknown to me, and presumably irrelevant to you.

SOB, Ruddock and Conan all back training this week. Apparently Rhys is absolutely flying it. Putting in his best ever GPS figures at the moment. He’ll be hungry to win something after seeing the lads do the Slam. Could well be a big addition, not just from a playing perspective.

molloyjh wrote: »

SOB, Ruddock and Conan all back training this week. Apparently Rhys is absolutely flying it. Putting in his best ever GPS figures at the moment. He’ll be hungry to win something after seeing the lads do the Slam. Could well be a big addition, not just from a playing perspective.

Going by Lancaster's enthusiasm, they might be throwing Ruddock straight into the mix from the start. If they could do that and have Conan and Leavy alongside him with Murphy to come in, I'd take a lot of optimism from it.

It would be great to have a forward bench of McGrath, Tracy, Porter, Ryan/Toner and Murphy to bring onto the field between 50 and 60 minutes.

With our back three injuries, I think the temptation to start Lowe is too much. I'd go with himself and Daly, I reckon. McFadden will probably start if available, though. Adam Byrne looked sharp at the weekend. I'd be happy enough to see him in the 23 also.

EDIT: Forget about Lowe if the above post proves accurate. Critical that McFadden is fit now.

Looking at stats down the years, the home team has won their quarter final over 80% of the time (since 2010, 32 games, 26 home wins)

No away team has won a quarter final in the last 2 seasons.

Worryingly, the last team to win an away quarter were Saracens, who have managed to win an away quarter final twice (also considering they beat Munster away in the Semi last year also)

So while home advantage is an obvious bonus, Saracens are the most likely team to take a home scalp. They don't seem to care where they play.

Combining this with the fact they're an obvious quality side who love to dominate sides and wear them down, I am very worried.

The flip side of this is Leinster are the obvious form team. We've beaten the leaders in 3 different leagues home and away this year.

We have a pack that Saracens will find incredibly difficult to dominate. 5 of the potential pack starters this weekend are just off the back of starting in a historic game against Twickenham, combine this with Fardy, potentially SOB and Ruddock and that is a unit that any team in the world, test or otherwise, will struggle to get the upper hand on.

Yes I am worried about this weekend, but Saracens fans are definitely in the same boat. And if they're not, they really should be

.ak wrote: »

If it’s a choice of Jordi or SOB for the bench I’d almost be tempted to go for Jordi. Yes, SOB is world class, but I can’t help but feel he’s been held together with glue currently and has so little game time under his belt, where as Jordi has been motoring along nicely.

I don't think there's even an almost about it, for me. SOB is class but, as you say, he breaks from a gust of wind.

If it's a call between an in form Jordi Murphy or a returning SOB who has had a few breakdowns in the past year, I'd gladly take Murphy particularly given the fitness concerns of Ruddock and Conan.

I don't want to be in a situation where Ruddock/Conan exits early on and we're hoping SOB can hold it together for an hour. I'd like him to get at least 2 games under his belt elsewhere before throwing him in to a game of this importance.

The other 4 back row players are more than good enough to beat Saracens.

Buer wrote: »

I don't think there's even an almost about it, for me. SOB is class but, as you say, he breaks from a gust of wind.

If it's a call between an in form Jordi Murphy or a returning SOB who has had a few breakdowns in the past year, I'd gladly take Murphy particularly given the fitness concerns of Ruddock and Conan.

I don't want to be in a situation where Ruddock/Conan exits early on and we're hoping SOB can hold it together for an hour. I'd like him to get at least 2 games under his belt elsewhere before throwing him in to a game of this importance.

The other 4 back row players are more than good enough to beat Saracens.

I think Wales made a similar mistake though by playing Navidi and Moriarty ahead of Tips and Faletau. If you're world class players are fit then you play them IMO, doesn't matter if the other choices are in form.

I'm sure people would have been calling for Chris Farrell to start vs Scotland as well had he not gotten injured.

If O'brien is fit he starts for me. First because he's one of our best players and two because you don't want any question marks over a sub, start the guy who might break down.

Ruddock would be the unfortunate one to miss out if I was picking and all are available

I'd be starting O'Brien if he's fit. If the worst happens and 2 back rows are injured then Fardy shifts into the back row and your 2 starting locks play 80.

The last few years SOB has almost specislised in getting himself fit just at the right time and delivering but this feels like too big an ask for me, when the alternative is Murphy it's a no brainer who to go with IMO. I think this type of game will be tailor made for him, it'll be a tactical battle and every player will need to be on their game, no player in Ireland is better than Murphy at quietly and efficiently fulfilling his role for his side.

I think Saracens will come and tackle for their lives, try to silence the crowd and hope their experience wins out in a nervy affair. Our kicking game will be key IMO which is why I'd be tempted to go with Byrne on the wing.

whatawaster wrote: »

Have they really been hit that much worse, or is Leinster's depth just so good that we don't notice as much?

Clermont's injury crisis was ridiculous. They had one fit half back for a good chunk of games.

Bazzo wrote: »

Clermont's injury crisis was ridiculous. They had one fit half back for a good chunk of games.

Didn't they get a medical joker in at 10 who then went and got injured as well at one stage? Their situation has been as bad as any I can think of.