Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

del roy · 27-04-2018 10:00am

Just bringing todays bets to the top.

3.35 Khafoo shememi 1pt e/w 16/1
Firstly, Addeybb could be anything and a rating of 109 could easily be a slap in the face to the handicapper. However there are 8 runners and Khafoo shememi e/w at 16/1 may just be a better bet. Some stats in our favour, Sandown form reads 113 ok the two wins were only listed races however he is fit having spent some of the winter racing in Maydan, Ryan Moore in the saddle, 16/1 and the trainer is 11 winers from 54 runners the last 14 days 20%, even I am not operating a strike rate that good.

4.20 Bravissimo 1pt e/w 20/1
Bravissimo looks well handicapped to me, looks like Willie has given him two runs around here over the last year with what I presume was a plan to come here at some stage.
Currently rated 126, he seems well in compared to some of the horses he was racing against over the last 12 months. The plus side is Mullins is in red hot form at Punchestown, really low weight which around here over 2m5f will be a big help, tongue tie for the first time, he has raced at the course before. Step up in trip will suit
The negatives are we know nothing about the jockey, Miss Kate Farrell (7). She is however 1 from 2 in chases so that’s something. Too early to say whether Kate will be a plus or a negative but with 10st-3LB and Kate taking 7LB off there will be worst 20/1 shots running tomorrow.

Jerry

del roy · 27-04-2018 7:16pm

3.15 scrutiny 9/1 2pt e/w 4th
3.35 dawson city 33/1 1pt e/w 6th
4.40 ramonx 16/1 1pt e/w unpl

three bets for tomorrow.
email to follow.

Don't like to moan as luck swings your way eventually but the rides on Scrutiny and Dawson city were terrible.

del roy · 28-04-2018 9:30pm

11 bets
2 winners
+59.5pts

5.40 sir roderic 7/2 5 pts win max bet

Sir roderic has raced 28 times, his life time form reads 0455/1132111290/003058003800-09
He has being running in class 2 and 3 handicaps over the last 15 months.
The last time Sir Roderic raced in a clas 5 was back in April 2016, he actually ran in two class 5 races that month and won both of them.the handicapper has finally relented. He had a wind op in Nov 2017 and this is his third race since the op. I think we should take note.

Cherry_Cola · 28-04-2018 11:19pm

Sir Roderic looks to be in the 5.20.

del roy · 29-04-2018 12:19pm

4.15 cleonte 12/1 1pt e/w 2nd returns 3.8pts
INFO STUFF

5.40 sir roderic 7/2 5 pts win max bet

razorhead · 29-04-2018 4:27pm

del roy wrote: »

4.15 cleonte 12/1 1pt e/w
INFO STUFF

5.40 sir roderic 7/2 5 pts win max bet

Ouch Del......

del roy · 29-04-2018 4:31pm

razorhead wrote: »

Ouch Del......

Yeah Razor but swings and roundabouts lets hope we are on the right side more than the wrong side of them finishes.

Anyway the biggie still to come.

del roy · 29-04-2018 5:28pm

4.15 cleonte 12/1 1pt e/w 2nd returns 3.8pts

5.40 sir roderic 7/2 5 pts win max bet lost (jesus that ran terrible)

loss of 3.2pts for today

13 bets
2 winners
+56.2pts

del roy · 29-04-2018 5:40pm

8.20 Max liberman 8/1 1pt e/w

Hacked up in a jumpers bumper here earlier on in the year and will feel like he is running lose with 9st 5LB plus jock taking 7LB off.
5th to Venice beach when trained by Aiden O' Brien the 1st 2nd and 3rd in that race are all rated 90 plus. Max runs off 66 tomorrow excluding the claim.

8/1 looks too big to me.

Jerry

Jayd0g · 29-04-2018 5:56pm

del roy wrote: »

8.20 Max liberman 8/1 1pt e/w

Hacked up in a jumpers bumper here earlier on in the year and will feel like he is running lose with 9st 5LB plus jock taking 7LB off.
5th to Venice beach when trained by Aiden O' Brien the 1st 2nd and 3rd in that race are all rated 90 plus. Max runs off 66 tomorrow excluding the claim.

8/1 looks too big to me.

Jerry

Gone in to 4/1on Paddy Power

del roy · 29-04-2018 5:58pm

Jayd0g wrote: »

Gone in to 4/1on Paddy Power

JAY
is that just now

ffs I got the message off Jerry backed it, put the kettle on for a cup of tea, made myself a cup of tea which took about 5 minutes and put it on here straight away.

Jayd0g · 29-04-2018 6:03pm

del roy wrote: »

JAY
is that just now

ffs I got the message of Jerry backed it, put the kettle on for a cup of tea, made myself a cup of tea which took about 5 minutes and put it on here straight away.

About 8 mins ago

del roy · 29-04-2018 6:05pm

Jayd0g wrote: »

About 8 mins ago

some other person must have tipped it, I can't see our gang moving that quick, half of them still in the pub

del roy · 29-04-2018 6:12pm

Lads
just phoned Jerry. He said there is a guy in the U.K who is excellent and he also put it up. Jerry says he has quite a following so he reckons thats what happened.
Said to Jerry, I hope your not following some stupid fooker in the U.K. He said don't knock it sure THERE ARE LOADS FOLLOWING SOME STUPID FOOKER FROM IRELAND.

Jayd0g · 29-04-2018 6:44pm

del roy wrote: »

Lads
just phoned Jerry. He said there is a guy in the U.K who is excellent and he also put it up. Jerry says he has quite a following so he reckons thats what happened.
Said to Jerry, I hope your not following some stupid fooker in the U.K. He said don't knock it sure THERE ARE LOADS FOLLOWING SOME STUPID FOOKER FROM IRELAND.

Do we know who this guy in the UK is?

ballyhagan · 29-04-2018 7:29pm

It was tipped on Racing UK.

del roy · 29-04-2018 7:29pm

ballyhagan wrote: »

It was tipped on Racing UK.

what time today. Thanks

ballyhagan · 29-04-2018 7:31pm

I can't tell. I saw it just now.

del roy · 29-04-2018 7:32pm

Windsor 7.40 Quothquan 2pts e/w 14/1 2nd 9/1
The racingpost says Quothquan may need further however he has run well at Kempton at distances between
2m btn 1L ¼ 5th of 13
1m4f btn 1L ¼ 3rd of 6
1m3 btn 3L 2nd of 10
1m btn hd 2nd of 14
1m btn 1L ½ 3rd of 13
1m btn 13L 10TH OF 11
Obviously I would prefer another 2f but the slow ground at Windsor will ensure none of the others horses will be sprinting away from Quothquan.
Connection have mostly kept him to right handed tracks. He has only raced twice at Windsor resulting in a win and a third both over a mile. This really is a race were anything can win as there are a lot of first time out horses, horses who will not go in the ground and doubtful stayers.
Looking at big fields at Windsor they seem to finish in slow motion maybe because they go for home very early (in my view). There is more rain forecast to fall tomorrow which should suit Quothquan.

Southwell 8.20 Max liberman 8/1 1pt e/w 5th

Hacked up in a jumpers bumper here earlier on in the year and will feel like he is running lose with 9st 5LB plus jock taking 7LB off.
5th to Venice beach when trained by Aiden O' Brien the 1st 2nd and 3rd in that race are all rated 90 plus. Max runs off 66 tomorrow excluding the claim.

8/1 looks too big to me and to all others. 4/1 now, silly price now 3/1 even as short as 5/2 with some. ffs 7/4

del roy · 30-04-2018 10:00am

Jayd0g wrote: »

Do we know who this guy in the UK is?

No but we know who the Irish stupid fooker is. eh Jerry.

sent Jerry a text yesterday saying
my old man used to say..never bet on a horse to do something he never did before. ie, sir roderic regarding distance.

reply...bobo mac never raced further than 3m over hurdles, first time for everything that's why there are bookmakers.

slimshady007 · 30-04-2018 8:02pm

del roy wrote: »

Windsor 7.40 Quothquan 2pts e/w 14/1
The racingpost says Quothquan may need further however he has run well at Kempton at distances between
2m btn 1L ¼ 5th of 13
1m4f btn 1L ¼ 3rd of 6
1m3 btn 3L 2nd of 10
1m btn hd 2nd of 14
1m btn 1L ½ 3rd of 13
1m btn 13L 10TH OF 11
Obviously I would prefer another 2f but the slow ground at Windsor will ensure none of the others horses will be sprinting away from Quothquan.
Connection have mostly kept him to right handed tracks. He has only raced twice at Windsor resulting in a win and a third both over a mile. This really is a race were anything can win as there are a lot of first time out horses, horses who will not go in the ground and doubtful stayers.
Looking at big fields at Windsor they seem to finish in slow motion maybe because they go for home very early (in my view). There is more rain forecast to fall tomorrow which should suit Quothquan.

Southwell 8.20 Max liberman 8/1 1pt e/w

Hacked up in a jumpers bumper here earlier on in the year and will feel like he is running lose with 9st 5LB plus jock taking 7LB off.
5th to Venice beach when trained by Aiden O' Brien the 1st 2nd and 3rd in that race are all rated 90 plus. Max runs off 66 tomorrow excluding the claim.

8/1 looks too big to me and to all others. 4/1 now, silly price now 3/1 even as short as 5/2 with some. ffs 7/4

Was counting my winnings on Quothquan, was sure he'd outstay them a furlong out. Great analysis on them going for home too far out. Place money at least.

del roy · 30-04-2018 8:06pm

slimshady007 wrote: »

Was counting my winnings on Quothquan, was sure he'd outstay them a furlong out. Great analysis on them going for home too far out. Place money at least.

Me too slim, 9 times out of 10 the horse on the outside usually on better ground hangs on but not today.

Thats two very close finishes with big priced horses we have lost out on.

del roy · 30-04-2018 8:30pm

so close to having a 30pt profit for the day.
3pts profit for the day.

15 bets
2 winners
+59.2pts

del roy · 30-04-2018 10:08pm

Brighton 5.25 it's how we roll 1pt e/w 12/1
I gave this horse twice last year when it was rated in the mid 60s. down to 55 with the claimer taking 3LB off surely gives it a chance in this race. Looking at his form he has some decent races at Windsor which like Brighton has a long straight.
IT'S HOW WE ROLL is only a 4yr old and last year when only a 3yr old was not beaten far in better races than this.

Jerry

del roy · 01-05-2018 10:31am

5th May 2000 guineas
RAID 50/1 2pts e/w

I would not normally have 2pts e/w on many horses over 25/1 however the Guineas this year in my view is wide open and Raid is no 50/1 shot.
Having only the second start of his life when fourth in the Greenham and entitled to have learned plenty there, this is a tough step up from the Greenham.
The son of Havana Gold has only been seen on a racecourse once before winning as he liked at Doncaster in November, (second, sixth and eighth have won on the AW over the winter. he’s proven on soft ground if the heavens open this week however clerk of the course is not expecting much rain if any to fall on the course this week. Although I am not sure my self they will escape the rain.
Trainer has been on record saying Raid has progressed very well over the winter.

Last 10 winners of the Greenham
2008 Paco Boy Richard Hughes Richard Hannon Sr. 1:27.14
2009 Vocalised Kevin Manning Jim Bolger 1:27.81
2010 Dick Turpin Ryan Moore Richard Hannon Sr. 1:22.72
2011 Frankel Tom Queally Henry Cecil 1:24.60
2012 Caspar Netscher Shane Kelly Alan McCabe 1:32.32
2013 Olympic Glory Richard Hughes Richard Hannon Sr. 1:26.14
2014 Kingman James Doyle John Gosden 1:26.95
2015 Muhaarar Frankie Dettori Charles Hills 1:20.80*
2016 Tasleet Paul Hanagan William Haggas 1:25.38
2017 Barney Roy James Doyle Richard Hannon Jr. 1:23.08
2018 James Garfield Frankie Dettori George Scott 1:26.98

2018 was not the slowest on record and with such a tight finish involving four horses the form of the race may not point to a guineas winner. However if you look at the race RAID was off the bridal and finished really well to finish 4th. He may have got a bit tired towards the end.
I put the times up to point out the race was actually not run that fast and I think a faster pace plus the extra furlong should suit RAID much better than the Greenham’s 7f race. I think the dip will suit this horse very much. The reason I say he got tired at the end of the Greenham race and not as some may point out he didn’t stay is, his dosage.
Raid has a dosage index of 0.41. He should get this mile standing on his head. Incidentally RAIDs sire Havana Gold has raced 4 times at Newmarket, finishing 1st 1st 2nd 2nd . He obviously liked the dip however I know it is not wise to use this stat on offspring, I just thought I would add it.

The Trainer David Simcock does not enter horses in big races without some evidence to back it up. Here is what he has to say about RAID.
Won a 6f maiden on the soft at Doncaster first time, although he’s a little bit quirky and hadn’t shown us much at home. He hadn’t shown us much at home before the Greenham on Saturday either, but the step up to 7f proved ideal and we were absolutely delighted with his run in fourth, beaten a length and a half, in a first-time hood. He raced really well between the two pole and the half-furlong, then probably just got a little tired, and if he he’d sustained his run he’d probably have finished second. I’ll speak to Sheikh Fahad and [his racing manager] David Redvers to decide where we go next, but we know he likes a bit of juice and that will no doubt influence the decision. I think in the right conditions we’d be looking to go to a Guineas somewhere.

This is an ante post bet if the horse does not run we lose our money.

sdoc13 · 01-05-2018 10:46am

del roy wrote:

This is an ante post bet if the does not run we lose our money.

365 are 50/1 with nrnb

kiers47 · 01-05-2018 11:47am

sdoc13 wrote: »

365 are 50/1 with nrnb

To add to that.
Id be surprised if there wasn't 50/1 available on the day or the day before after final decs considering the profile and the ones ahead of him in the betting.

del roy · 01-05-2018 12:04pm

Friday 1st June 2018
The Oaks…..Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w

I think this is a seriously good filly. Her 3yr old form reads 131. I am really interested in colts and filly’s who win over the mile distance at the young edge of two.
Her 2yr old form reads 131. She started her career at Yarmouth of all places where she made all and duly won. Comments of race were
Made all, ridden over 2f out, driven over 1f out, going best after and stayed on well, comfortably (op 5/2). The form of the race has not worked out great with only the second horse winning so far.

On to Chantilly for the Prix d'Aumale (Group 3) (2yo Fillies) (Turf) 5 runners. Wild illusion went off 7/2. They decided to give her some cover in the small field of five runners. Two things may have happened that day
1. She hated being held up.
2. She just did not run her race that day for whatever reason.
She was only beaten 1L 3/4L.
They must have went home and realised they did the wrong thing by holding her up. Three weeks later they supplemented her for the Total Prix Marcel Boussac - Criterium des Pouliches (Group 1) (2yo Fillies) (Turf).
Here’s what the post say
However, Appleby has seen an improvement in her form at home and after a meeting with Sheikh Mohammed the call was made to roll the dice and supplement the filly.
Under a positive James Doyle ride, that gamble paid off spectacularly, as the daughter of Dubawi led early in the home straight before staying on stoutly for a 25-1 success over the previously unbeaten Polydream.
“She came forward a lot for her last run and we were delighted with her at home," said Appleby. "I spoke to his highness in depth about her and he said, 'Go for it, if you're happy with the horse'."

Fast forward to the races James Doyle takes the lead as soon as the stalls open, makes all and wins by 1L and ¾ beating France’s big hope, the unbeaten Polydream.

Make no mistake to do what she did at 2yrs old to some very well bred horses over a mile when her pedigree is packed with stamina gives her a big shout in this year’s oaks. Also her win was a second faster than the Oaks fav Happily who is 6/1. Wild Illusion has a dosage index of 0.50 which is excellent.

I am not mad on her for the 1000 Guineas as her stamina at 2yrs of age helped her beat the well bred milers but it will be much tougher as a 3yr old
They say the guineas is the best trial for the Derby and Oaks so let’s see if she tries to make all the running and more importantly will she be passed.

This is an ante post bet if the horse does not run we lose our money.

Jerry

del roy · 01-05-2018 1:22pm

Hi

just tiding up the thread.

Brighton 5.25 it's how we roll 1pt e/w 12/1
I gave this horse twice last year when it was rated in the mid 60s. down to 55 with the claimer taking 3LB off surely gives it a chance in this race. Looking at his form he has some decent races at Windsor which like Brighton has a long straight.
IT'S HOW WE ROLL is only a 4yr old and last year when only a 3yr old was not beaten far in better races than this.

7.45 Haines 2pts e/w 7/1
Haines raced 33 times, lifetime flat form 077/5033311/1125504/121452684/1695-237
looks ordinary nothing to see here however his lifetime form at Kempton reads 211511
Clearly loves it around here, an eye catching run at Wolverhamton in a really good 2m race in Feb 2018 with tonights jock up gives him an excellent chance here.

Sorry for all the bets landing on a quiet Tuesday morning however I am away for awhile and the next bet will probably be Saturday afternoon.

Jerry

Future antepost bets

5th May 2000 guineas
RAID 50/1 2pts e/w

Friday 1st June 2018
The Oaks…..Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w

del roy · 02-05-2018 8:24am

5.25 it's how we roll 1pt e/w 12/1 8th
7.45 Haines 2pts e/w 7/1 3rd returns 5.5pts

loss of 0.5pt for the day

17 bets
2 winners
+58.2pts