Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Options
1…2627293132…325

Comments

  • Options
    #842
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    LeinsterDub wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1092910377283829761

    So many issues.
    How does anyone know what's inside the trucks for one?
    Why would GPS be useful?
    How does anyone know what standards they are conforming too?
    Etc

    If the entire system is dependant on suppliers registering everything themselves online, and there is nothing at the border itself to check anything, then what is there to stop "Smugglers Ltd" from driving from Belfast to Dublin with all kinds of goods that do not conform to EU regulations? If they don't self declare online, don't carry GPS tracking etc etc, how would either government intercept them?

    Have they really not grasped that optional border controlls are not border controlls? The point of the backstop is that the controlls have to happen somewhere, if not at the land border, then in NI ports, or if the backstop is UK wide, than at UK ports.


  • Options
    #843
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users Posts: 4,298 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    I thought they wanted a time limit on the backstop?

    Its almost like they don't know what they want.


  • Options
    #844
    breatheme
    Registered Users Posts: 375 ✭✭breatheme


    judeboy101 wrote: »
    German manufacturing is slowing and EU is predicted to go into contraction by year end. With bond buying having failed increase inflation by enough, will pressure come on EU from industry to postpone/amend deal to stage off a German recession?

    Again the UK being full of themselves: If there is a German recession, the UK having access to the German market alone wouldn't save it. Do you honestly think that the UK is a large enough and important market to stave off German recession?

    Besides, the UK might apparently swing their doors open and let the whole world in. If that happens, German car manufacturers would still be able to export to the UK tariff free.


  • Options
    #845
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    Bit cynical wrote: »
    I would agree with you more if we (Ireland), by holding out for the backstop, ensured, by so doing, that a hard border was never put in place.

    It seems to me that the strategy of holding out for agreement on the backstop makes a certain amount of sense if we have calculated that the UK will do anything to avoid exiting on no deal. Then, in order to avoid no deal, the UK agrees to the backstop before the deadline and the hard border is never put in place. There is still a possibility of this happening of course, though it is rather slim at this stage.

    But once the crash out exit occurs, we are in new territory. Now the hard border gets put in place and, what is more, Ireland is seen to be building it. In stead of avoiding the hard border, we are now seeking conditions to have it removed. Sure, the backstop would achieve this, but as time goes on, the more the UK gets used to the situation and therefore the less likely they are to agree to it. If it is to happen, it has happen within the first few months.

    We can certainly blame the UK if we wish and indeed that has been happening at government levels. But at the end of the day it is like two companies trying to secure a deal. If a deal is not reached both have failed. It does not help one party to blame the other. They blame us and we blame them but regardless the strategy has failed. It is then time for a new approach.

    I think our calculations have been wrong. I don't think we understand the controversial nature of the backstop from the UK perspective. I don't think we appreciate their reluctance to cancel brexit or hold another referendum. These and other issues I think we have miscalculated and therefore we will have to pay a price.

    However, we have little choice now but to continue down the current road even if there is little chance of success. The only thing I would say is that we should recognise when we have failed and then start thinking of something new. If we don't the EU might end up doing us a favour and overruling us on the backstop.

    I think you underestimate just how damaging a no-deal Brexit will be for the UK. The initial chaos alone should be enough to end the nonsense, and the longer a no-deal Brexit lasts, the worse things will get for the UK. It will not be the case that the UK will suffer a bit of hardship, find a new normal and move on from there. A continuing no-deal Brexit will continue to inflict mounting damage to their economey, that damage will be deep and lasting and one has to wonder just how long it will take before the 48% who were against Brexit in the first place overtake the pro-Brexit crowd and end the sh1tshow. Personally I doubt it will take very long.

    If the UK crash out with no deal, then the strategy will change, instead of seeking a backstop as a condition for an orderly Brexit, we will be seeking the backstop as a condition of putting an end to a disorderly Brexit. The UK will flounder in a no-deal scenario and the only liferaft available will come with a backstop entry fee. An open border in Ireland will be a precondition to any future trade agreement with the EU, and such an agreement with the EU is something that the UK cannot live without.

    Then there is option B, which is to push for a border poll in NI. Polls have already indicated that a majority in NI would support unification in a no-deal scenario. Given the chaos a no-deal Brexit will cause in NI more than any part of the UK, Unification, and thereby escaping a chaotic UK and rejoining the EU which NI never wanted to leave, will have a high prospect of acheiving majority support. It may be seen in London as the best way out by then too, NI will be all that stands in the way of saving Britain from economic ruin.


  • Options
    #846
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Request for Brexit forum so we can discuss multiple aspects at the same time: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057953333


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #847
    Seth Brundle
    Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,044 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    breatheme wrote: »
    Again the UK being full of themselves: If there is a German recession...
    There is not a German recession (although they may be heading towards one).
    Saying there is a recession is just brexit spin!


  • Options
    #848
    bob mcbob
    Registered Users Posts: 971 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    judeboy101 wrote: »
    With bond buying having failed increase inflation by enough, will pressure come on EU from industry to postpone/amend deal to stage off a German recession?

    I don't think changing the Brexit deal will have much effect on the slowing economy in China.


  • Options
    #849
    EdgeCase
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    Italy's now in a technical recession, but that's being driven largely by bonkers quite 'brexity' domestic politics that's been going on there for years.

    You can see where Europe's going to head if the EU bends over backwards to facilitate the UK's demands - more instability and more chaos and that would eventually lead to big social and economic problems right across the EU if it were to continue in that direction.

    If France continues on with the chaos and ends up pushing towards a government with Marine Le Pen who is now more like UKIP than ever, then you're looking at a complete mess for the whole continent.

    The EU has bigger picture issues to consider than making the Tories happy.

    The UK is also likely to plunge into a fairly serious recession itself anyway due to the self-inflicted damage its done to its own business environment. You can't create this kind of chaos and then expect businesses to invest and that's exactly what is now happening.

    From an Irish point of view, the bigger risk to our trade with the UK is probably a very prolonged UK recession / depression and/or a Sterling crisis or a credit / banking panic in the UK


  • Options
    #850
    josip
    Registered Users Posts: 13,692 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Armageddon isn't being forecast by all UK economic think tanks in the event of a Hard Brexit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/06/uk-can-avoid-no-deal-brexit-recession-says-economic-forecaster

    https://www.niesr.ac.uk/

    I believe Brexit is a bad idea and was decided upon for the wrong reasons.
    Nevertheless, there are independent bodies who judge that it won't be economic disaster.


  • Options
    #851
    EdgeCase
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    I'd be quite concerned that a lot of those forecasts are still looking rather a lot like the people who kept predicting a 'soft landing' in Ireland back in 2007. I still remember vividly sitting in Spain at the time watching the news in 2008 as headline after headline about the total meltdown that was going on in Ireland rolling past on various news channels and everyone being quite taken aback as there hadn't been any prediction of this.

    I'd be very wary of forecasts on this as the situation is without any precedent so it's extremely hard to model.

    The biggest concern that I would have is that businesses making investment decisions are seeing the UK as politically unstable. That's not something any modern economy should have as a label. When they talk about political instability, it's usually in reference to unpredictable and arbitrary changes in the regulatory and trading environment driven by political chaos. That's exactly what is happening in the UK at the moment.

    I would certainly treat the UK with a huge degree of caution at the moment.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #852
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users Posts: 26,165 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    judeboy101 wrote: »
    German manufacturing is slowing and EU is predicted to go into contraction by year end. With bond buying having failed increase inflation by enough, will pressure come on EU from industry to postpone/amend deal to stage off a German recession?
    Ah, the German carmakers again. They're taking their sweet time about delivering the Brexiters' Brexit, aren't they?

    Unquestionably EU industry would greatly prefer a Withdrawal Agreement to a no-deal Brexit. That has been true all along; it doesn't take the threat of an impending recession. But they don't want just any WA; for EU industry, it really is true that no deal is better than a bad deal. The UK has committed itself to shredding the benefits of the Single Market; EU industry is very anxious to keep them, and so doesn't want a deal that jeopardises the integrity and effectiveness of the market.

    Would they want a WA without a backstop, or other effective means of preventing a hard border in Ireland? Taking the short-term view, they could live with it; taking a longer-term view, no. Such a climbdown at this point would be seriously politically destablilising within the EU, causing smaller member states - the vast majority, remember - to doubt the EU's commitment to solidarity. Plus, it would augur badly for the negotiations that really matter to EU industry - the future relationship negotiations, which don't start until after Brexit.

    So there will be no pressure to throw Ireland under a bus, if that's what you're asking. If by some miracle May came up with a reasonable alternative to the backstop, which her own Parliament would accept - I know, I know, but just pretend she could - then there's the theoretical possibility of pressure on Ireland to accept. But in fact no pressure would be needed; we too want a WA as much or more than any other member state, and if May proposed a WA with any effective mechanism for avoiding a hard border we'd be all over it like a Russian vine on growth hormones.


  • Options
    #853
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users Posts: 6,730 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Kate Hoey on Sky just now taking a leaf out of DT's book. Says "it's not a border, it's a frontier" and that changes everything rolleyes.png

    As my honourable friend remarked above:
    lawred2 wrote: »
    It's beyond parody at this stage. These people are not inhabiting the real world.


  • Options
    #854
    WomanSkirtFan8
    Registered Users Posts: 768 ✭✭✭WomanSkirtFan8


    Topgear on Dave wrote: »
    Different history. Different culture.

    We know we are a small nation. We know our power is limited.

    We have never had a large military and have no history of great empire.

    There are no memories of "how we won the war" to nostalgically appeal to.
    And may I also add to that we also have a different psychology as well. We don't view the world the same way that the British do. We embrace the world and don't try to dominate it


  • Options
    #855
    EdgeCase
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    CelticRambler wrote: »
    Kate Hoey on Sky just now taking a leaf out of DT's book. Says "it's not a border, it's a frontier" and that changes everything rolleyes.png

    As my honourable friend remarked above:

    Well that makes absolutely no sense when you consider that border and frontier are synonymous. There's some slightly different use of the term 'frontier' to include the region that is adjacent to a border, but that's about it.

    This is playing with words in the same way that public relations person might do.

    The legal meaning is all that matters and I think that's where the UK keeps going wrong. They are turning up at the EU having re-spun things with fancy language. That's all fine and well if you're talking to the general public and trying to sell a political policy, but when you're dealing with a panel of lawyers and experts in international treaties like Sabine Weyand, your fancy language will be stripped down to the bare bones of its logic and translated into all the EU working languages. They have a very effective spin filter and can see straight through it.

    It's about finding an actual solution, not a form of words to make something that doesn't work somehow slip through.


  • Options
    #856
    Tacitus Kilgore
    Registered Users Posts: 2,128 ✭✭✭Tacitus Kilgore


    josip wrote: »
    Armageddon isn't being forecast by all UK economic think tanks in the event of a Hard Brexit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/06/uk-can-avoid-no-deal-brexit-recession-says-economic-forecaster

    https://www.niesr.ac.uk/

    I believe Brexit is a bad idea and was decided upon for the wrong reasons.
    Nevertheless, there are independent bodies who judge that it won't be economic disaster.


    They are surmising that armageddon can be avoided by 'systems' and unspecified contingency plans being put in place by the UK & Brussels in the event of a no-deal exit - is that not effectively a self-contradicting statement? Also noted planning needed by both sides - 51 days is not a lot of time to put these unspecified systems in place, is it not?

    I was of the belief that a no-deal exit is literally just that - no deal, no arrangements, no systems etc...

    No-deal mean's everyone's on a new blank page on the 30th, anything less than that requires a deal.


  • Options
    #857
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users Posts: 6,730 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Bit cynical wrote: »
    But once the crash out exit occurs, we are in new territory. Now the hard border gets put in place and, what is more, Ireland is seen to be building it. In stead of avoiding the hard border, we are now seeking conditions to have it removed. Sure, the backstop would achieve this, but as time goes on, the more the UK gets used to the situation and therefore the less likely they are to agree to it. If it is to happen, it has happen within the first few months.

    If we (boards.ies/the Irish/the EU) underestimated - or overcalculated - anything, it was the depth of the ideological trench that British would dig for themselves, and how utterly determined they were to suffer all kinds of pain and discomfort so as to have another Blitz/Dunkirk retreat to celebrate in years to come.

    I agree that once the UK drives over the Brexit cliff, the rationale for a backstop (in its current form) goes with it, and that as time goes on, the UK will get used to a new normal. However, that new normal will be very different for NI compared to GB, and we know that NI spent many blood-stained decades not getting used to the old normal.

    Furthermore, even as a reluctant member of the EU, there are sigifnicant inequalities across the UK. Contrary to TM's professed ambition to "strenghten our precious Union", as post-Brexit time goes by, those divisions will be exaggerated: London and the South-East will adjust to the new reality of Singaporean financial wheeling and dealing, and the luxury of eating lettuce and tomatoes smuggled over from France; Scotland will agitate (and vote for?) independence; England's rust-belt and coal-country will sink even further into depression. By that point, the "border in Ireland" really will be the least of the UK's problems and undoubtedly solved by a quick stroke of the red pen down the Irish Sea.


  • Options
    #858
    VinLieger
    Registered Users Posts: 17,742 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    CelticRambler wrote: »
    Kate Hoey on Sky just now taking a leaf out of DT's book. Says "it's not a border, it's a frontier" and that changes everything rolleyes.png

    As my honourable friend remarked above:


    Cannot wait for her to get deselected


  • Options
    #859
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Seth Brundle wrote: »
    Food labelling Instructions announced yesterday
    Advice for food producers, manufacturers, retailers and suppliers on the changes to food labels if the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

    Absolutely hopeless this stuff. So confused.
    You must not use the EU organic logo on any UK organic products, unless the UK and EU reach an equivalency arrangement – where both still recognise each other’s standards – before exit day.

    You can continue to use your approved UK organic control body logo if you qualified to use it before Brexit.

    The EU organic logo must not appear on UK organic goods. If the UK is able to achieve equivalence with the EU before the UK leaves on the 29 March, then UK organic goods can enter the EU and can continue to use the logo.


  • Options
    #860
    trellheim
    Registered Users Posts: 5,869 ✭✭✭trellheim


    You must not use the EU organic logo on any UK organic products, unless the UK and EU reach an equivalency arrangement – where both still recognise each other’s standards – before exit day.

    As I posted earlier, similar is happening with car registration plates - they have to take the EU stars off their Reg plates


  • Options
    #861
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,296 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    trellheim wrote: »
    As I posted earlier, similar is happening with car registration plates - they have to take the EU stars off their Reg plates

    most cars over there never really had them anyway


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #862
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,596 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    josip wrote: »
    Armageddon isn't being forecast by all UK economic think tanks in the event of a Hard Brexit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/06/uk-can-avoid-no-deal-brexit-recession-says-economic-forecaster

    https://www.niesr.ac.uk/

    I believe Brexit is a bad idea and was decided upon for the wrong reasons.
    Nevertheless, there are independent bodies who judge that it won't be economic disaster.


    It might not be a disaster if the government gets help from the EU and they take steps to avert a disaster. However the same economists also warn that any short term steps taken will lead to pain later. This is the same as the BOE warnings after the vote and the steps they themselves then took to avert the disaster they predicted. This was then used a proof they were wrong.
    However, offering a possible route-map for a no-deal scenario, the NIESR analysis said that additional support could be put in place by ministers and the Bank of England to curb the short-term impact to the economy.

    Interest rates could be held steady at the current level of 0.75%, rather than raised, while measures could be taken to provide direct support to household income, including income tax cuts and higher benefits payments.

    Such interventions would, however, come with a cost. The NIESR report said unfurling such a package could add as much as £60bn to government borrowing by 2023-24. It also warned that inflation could accelerate, eroding real wages and acting as a brake on the economy in future.

    Amit Kara, head of UK macroeconomics at NIESR, said: “All this is not to say there will not be long-term economic costs. Those costs remain intact. These are just mitigating measures.

    “Whilst it does make headlines or sensational news to suggest the economy will go into recession or not, I don’t think economists have the tools to be that precise. The big picture is I think there really will be a material slowdown,” he added.

    The highlighted parts says it all really. If the Tories are still in charge I can see tax cute but not higher benefit payments to support households. Then we have the dreaded real wage stagnation that was basically one of the causes of Brexit. People feeling the squeeze on their wages.


  • Options
    #863
    ilovesmybrick
    Registered Users Posts: 1,128 ✭✭✭ilovesmybrick


    Tusk is certainly not mincing his words anymore
    https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1093112742293266435


  • Options
    #864
    trellheim
    Registered Users Posts: 5,869 ✭✭✭trellheim


    lawred2 wrote: »
    most cars over there never really had them anyway

    Indeed but the lorries would have had


    In other news I see the UUP are trying to dig up the direct rule to enmesh this even deeper.

    Phoo ! thats some rousing words by Tusk there I can see the screamy Mail headlines now


    to save you a click this is what he tweeted
    I've been wondering what that special place in hell looks like, for those who promoted #Brexit, without even a sketch of a plan how to carry it out safely.


  • Options
    #865
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,596 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Donald Tusk has had some say after his meeting with Varadkar.

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1093113387763056640

    'Tusk says he has been thinking about the "special place in hell" for those who promoted Brexit "without even a sketch of a plan of how to carry it out safely". Varadkar said the "instability" in London shows why a backstop is need.

    Pure fury from Brussels and Dublin.'

    In case we think he may have been caught off guard or he may have been misunderstood, here he is tweeting about it.

    https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1093112742293266435

    Edit, beaten to it by ilovesmybrick and trellheim


  • Options
    #866
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,087 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    lawred2 wrote: »
    most cars over there never really had them anyway

    Just having a gander out of my office window now and it's about 50/50 of the cars going by that have the EU flag on them.


  • Options
    #867
    LuckyLloyd
    Registered Users Posts: 36,205 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    woohoo!!! wrote: »
    The department of foreign affairs identified early on that the issue of the border would cause havoc if it formed part of trade deal negotiations, that it would be used as a bargaining chip used by Westminster. Therefore it was of utmost importance that it did not and needed to be nailed down before trade negotiations commenced.

    As events have proved this foresight has been proven 100% correct. That the UK has proven to be such a shambles has always been on the cards since their GE, just that the extent of it has caught people off guard.

    The backstop is an absolute pre-require to trade talks, it actually protects both sides from the border being used against them.

    The proof in the pudding is that whilst their is a lot of division and tension over a range of issues within the EU27, but not over Brexit, at all.

    Just want to say that this is one of the more succinct ways of summarising the EU position on the Backstop, and the easiest way of explaining to people pushing the 'but why a backstop if it forces No Deal + Hard Border' conundrum as a reason to relent.


  • Options
    #868
    seamus
    Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    ilovesmybrick wrote: »
    Tusk is certainly not mincing his words anymore
    Yep, they're done playing the kid gloves game. They likely realised that the EU is getting blamed by the Brits one way or another, so they have no reason not to be blatantly honest about Brexit.

    They have also, again, made it clear that the deal is the deal:
    https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0206/1027805-may_varadkar_brexit/


  • Options
    #869
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,508 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Wow, that is some tweet from Tusk.

    The reaction from Express, JRM etc is going to be epic.


  • Options
    #870
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,401 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    PokeHerKing wrote: »
    Its almost like they don't know what they want.
    All of the various factions are united in their opposition to everybody else's plans, but unable to unite around any one, specific plan.

    If only Cameron had thought to ask a specific question with one specific meaning.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #871
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,401 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    ilovesmybrick wrote: »
    Tusk is certainly not mincing his words anymore
    Neither did Jonathan Powell, quoting the excellent Ivan Roger, in the New Stateman a couple of days back:
    Ivan Rogers wrote:
    they had not the slightest fag packet plan on what they were going to try to do and in which order.


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement