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Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,508 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    This picture has already been explained as a bit of an ambush by the EU side.

    It was not taken during a negotiation session. Davis and his team were asked to attend a room specifically for some photographs to be taken with Michel Barnier’s team. They didn’t take any binders, folders or random bits of paperwork because that’s not generally needed to have your photo taken.

    It was a sly and churlish move from the EU, but I suppose it did it’s job because lots of people have recycled it without knowing the context.

    That is all well and good, and I don't even dispute that may be what happened.

    But has been able to last because of the sheer incompetence of Davis. HE attended 4 meetings. he lied to the HoC about having sectorial analysis done. He had no understanding of how the EU works, thinking he would simply go to Berlin. Without analysis how was he going to be able to know what position he was going to take?

    He agreed to the EU plan for the talks after claiming it would be the row of the summer. HE signed up to the Backstop, but then claimed he didn't really know what it meant.

    So whilst the EU may well have pulled a fast on in this particular instance, their is ample evidence to show that the UK were woefully prepared for the Brexit process.

    Even know, 2+ years in, the Cabinet haven't even agreed on a position. The main government party is completely split.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,167 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    As for the tweeter - he is a member of the HoL and, according to Wiki, "has served as Director General of the CBI and Minister of State for Trade and Investment"

    And he still gets regular TV spots too. I think there is a similar account to his which is a parody, the tow of them came together with that particular tweet anyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,167 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    This picture has already been explained as a bit of an ambush by the EU side.

    It was not taken during a negotiation session. Davis and his team were asked to attend a room specifically for some photographs to be taken with Michel Barnier’s team. They didn’t take any binders, folders or random bits of paperwork because that’s not generally needed to have your photo taken.

    It was a sly and churlish move from the EU, but I suppose it did it’s job because lots of people have recycled it without knowing the context.

    David Davis spent 4 hours in total negotiating Brexit with Barnier. Don't try blame the EU here, a Post-It note is all Davis would have needed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,018 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    Is this accurate? How could this be given the economic climate within the UK?
    Weak pound + still a member of the single market for another few weeks, calm before the storm stuff. If a softish deal is somehow done, the pound will rally and exports will fall and the ERG will say it's because they didn't "just leave". You can't win.

    Even the impacts of a crash out will be blamed on the EU/Ireland.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 421 ✭✭Folkstonian


    Hurrache wrote: »
    David Davis spent 4 hours in total negotiating Brexit with Barnier. Don't try blame the EU here.

    Why are always you so abrasive? No blame was assigned to anyone, for anything.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,455 ✭✭✭KildareP


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    I wonder should Ireland push to secure some of these car manufacturing jobs?

    We have been doing well with banking and services but the manufacturing jobs seem to pass us by. They would be a great boon to, say the midlands.

    Presume a country like Poland might get some of the action.

    I'm not sure if it would be a net benefit.

    It could have big implications on VRT, for one.

    Let's say you charge the VRT on the parts, then the manufacturer will have to pay the VRT on all and any parts brought in from outside Ireland and then seek a refund were they to sell the completed car outside Ireland.

    Similarly, if they were to partially build the car in Ireland and then ship it somewhere else for eventual completion. They're paying VRT on parts, then seeking a refund upon export, possibly paying VRT once more if an Irish person ultimately buys the finished product. Lots of admin fees there!

    Or if you charge the VRT on the fully finished car?
    Again, the manufacturer will have to pay VRT on the completed car upon assembly here and then seek a refund should they export the car outside Ireland to the end user.

    It could also create an unintended competitive advantage - let's say Ford set up shop here and can assemble a car here from parts brought in from outside Ireland - they don't pay VRT on the parts, only on the finished product.

    They can import the parts and assemble the car cheaper - ultimately meaning they can sell it in Ireland cheaper, or offer a comparatively better spec product - than, say, Hyundai can, because Hyundai are paying VRT on the fully finished product, including all and any parts. This would likely be illegal.

    It's for this reason VRT is often argued as the reason why we often see a "paddy spec" option for cars, which sits below the usual base entry model of the UK equivalent vehicle.

    Anyway, I digress somewhat :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,167 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Why are always you so abrasive? No blame was assigned to anyone, for anything.

    You blamed the EU on the set up, so there's that for starters.

    There's noting abrasive about pointing out the absolute ineptitude of the man.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 10,375 ✭✭✭✭kunst nugget


    As for the tweeter - he is a member of the HoL and, according to Wiki, "has served as Director General of the CBI and Minister of State for Trade and Investment"

    But, according to himself, he isn't part of the establishment elite.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,455 ✭✭✭KildareP


    This picture has already been explained as a bit of an ambush by the EU side.

    It was not taken during a negotiation session. Davis and his team were asked to attend a room specifically for some photographs to be taken with Michel Barnier’s team. They didn’t take any binders, folders or random bits of paperwork because that’s not generally needed to have your photo taken.

    It was a sly and churlish move from the EU, but I suppose it did it’s job because lots of people have recycled it without knowing the context.

    Why wouldn't you go in with your documentation for a photo-op?

    Would you not think that a photo being taken of a negotiating team, arriving for the start of the negotiating process, would absolutely benefit from having all of your notes and docs with you in person?

    But if we want to argue that it's an ambush then I suppose it's strikingly similar to how the UK parliament and media have ambushed Ireland and the EU as being entirely to blame for the eventual Withdrawal Agreement and the subsequent deadlock situation that the UK finds itself in?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,115 ✭✭✭funkey_monkey


    I heard a DUP member from Belfast on Good Morning Ulster this moring saying that DUP have given too much power to the Hard Brexit side whereas after the referendum they said they would be a broad church.
    When put to him did he mean Sammy Wilson, he said yes.

    Anyone got any further details on this?

    EDIT: Just made the Belly Telly headline, but I can't link it.

    On phone now, so can link:

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/dup-member-says-sammy-wilson-should-not-be-allowed-to-dictate-partys-brexit-stance-37812156.html


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 498 ✭✭BobbyBobberson


    I saw that earlier.
    Curious to know what the plan that they "did" have included.
    It's nonsense anyhow. Nobody was bullied and the UK were happy to agree to the WA (up until they returned to the HoC from agreeing the negotiations).

    As for the tweeter - he is a member of the HoL and, according to Wiki, "has served as Director General of the CBI and Minister of State for Trade and Investment"

    Emma Barnett took him to task recently.

    https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1090587682453868544


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 498 ✭✭BobbyBobberson


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-ford-motor/ford-told-britains-may-it-is-preparing-alternative-production-sites-the-times-idUKKCN1Q12SK



    Ford has plants in {Dagenham, Bridgend, Dunton, Halewood} all of which voted to leave. Dagenham 62%

    Turkeys voting for xmas...

    Well almost 40% of turkeys did not vote for Christmas :D

    But yeah I always think about this with Sunderland and Brexit. How many Nissan workers and their families would have voted Leave?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    Andrew Neil posted yesterday that the UK is actually leading in terms of growth amongst major European economies and Japan. Canada and the US are ahead of all others at the moment.

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1095408652884893696

    Is this accurate? How could this be given the economic climate within the UK?
    Click my links, read (or skim) the 2 articles, consult the embedded links in the first, and even if you didn't take them at face value, it's still very easy to see Andrew Neil's tweet as the guff they are.

    Tomorrow is the 1st anniversary of our Brexodus, but I'd been in the (northern) UK 10 years prior, and another 10 years before that: let me tell you that my experience tallies those linked articles significantly more than Andrew Neil's half-baked statistics.

    The UK's growth post-2008 was all fur and less than a g-string's worth of knickers. Record employment, but all McJobs and ZHCs. Record low productivity. Dead cat-bouncing purchasing parity. Etc. It was in no fit state to leave the EU and go it alone. And then it voted to do just that.

    I was already posting on here about clients freezing UK investment decisions (and other start-up clients going to the wall through the EIF promptly turning the taps off) in late 2016/early 2017, and counter-opining to Leavers gloating at the time that the predicted recession hadn't happened, that the deleterious economic effects of the vote would gradually build, coalesce and eventually materialise by the time the UK actually left.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,575 ✭✭✭✭briany


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-ford-motor/ford-told-britains-may-it-is-preparing-alternative-production-sites-the-times-idUKKCN1Q12SK



    Ford has plants in {Dagenham, Bridgend, Dunton, Halewood} all of which voted to leave. Dagenham 62%

    Turkeys voting for xmas...

    It begs the question of whether the people of Dagenham thought about the possible consequences of a Leave vote, or if they did but still decided that the risks were worth what they'd get in return.

    See, if it's the second, and people in the UK are willing to figuratively cut their arm off to get out of the EU, then serious questions have to be asked about what led to that mindset. What created that timebomb? Even if Brexit were cancelled tomorrow, that mindset would remain. It would be a flame fanned with glee by Farage and his Brexit party, and almost every red top throughout the UK.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,167 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    We cannot vote for this as it’s current configured because it rules out no deal and removes our negotiating leverage in Brussels. The prime minister, if she went through the lobbies for this tomorrow night, would be voting against the guarantees she has given in the Commons for months [that no-deal remains an option]. It is madness.

    Madness alright, but not for the reasons he thinks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,026 ✭✭✭farmchoice


    briany wrote: »
    It begs the question of whether the people of Dagenham thought about the possible consequences of a Leave vote, or if they did but still decided that the risks were worth what they'd get in return.

    See, if it's the second, and people in the UK are willing to figuratively cut their arm off to get out of the EU, then serious questions have to be asked about what led to that mindset. What created that timebomb? Even if Brexit were cancelled tomorrow, that mindset would remain. It would be a flame fanned with glee by Farage and his Brexit party, and almost every red top throughout the UK.


    ya behind all the votes and the politicking is the stark reality that a huge percentage of the Uk populace if not an actual majority have become so disenfranchised as to vote for self harm because they feel they have nothing left to lose .


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,520 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    briany wrote: »
    It begs the question of whether the people of Dagenham thought about the possible consequences of a Leave vote, or if they did but still decided that the risks were worth what they'd get in return.

    See, if it's the second, and people in the UK are willing to figuratively cut their arm off to get out of the EU, then serious questions have to be asked about what led to that mindset. What created that timebomb? Even if Brexit were cancelled tomorrow, that mindset would remain. It would be a flame fanned with glee by Farage and his Brexit party, and almost every red top throughout the UK.

    That is the point which Fintan O'Toole has been making in his latest book.

    A point which the UK establishment have no interest in hearing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,022 ✭✭✭Call me Al


    Emma Barnett took him to task recently.

    https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1090587682453868544

    Thafs a painful watch, and I'd say those who are supporting a soft brexit or remain must be horrified. And looking into the midst of all the semantic gymnastics from lord digby there he admits that the UK will be alright if they get a comprehensive free trade deal with the EU.
    And guess what has to be agreed to come first..

    Their ideals and approach to this whole process have been built on an inflated sense of importance, within the context of a 28-member state EU, both politically and financially.
    But it's all the remainers fault apparently, the divided country, the brexit uncertainty, the Westminster impasse. It has nothing to do with the lies and half-truths the public were sold, or the lack of consultation with the Irish government ahead of time. Well at least he isn't blaming the EU which is something, he's got that bit right at least.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 498 ✭✭BobbyBobberson


    Call me Al wrote: »
    Thafs a painful watch, and I'd say those who are supporting a soft brexit or remain must be horrified. And looking into the midst of all the semantic gymnastics from lord digby there he admits that the UK will be alright if they get a comprehensive free trade deal with the EU.
    And guess what has to be agreed to come first..

    Their ideals and approach to this whole process have been built on an inflated sense of importance, within the context of a 28-member state EU, both politically and financially.
    But it's all the remainers fault apparently, the divided country, the brexit uncertainty, the Westminster impasse. It has nothing to do with the lies and half-truths the public were sold, or the lack of consultation with the Irish government ahead of time. Well at least he isn't blaming the EU which is something, he's got that bit right at least.

    And a pretty silly point he makes about the jobs. She could have skewered him straight away with the European Medicines Agency.

    Yeah, when it all goes belly up the Brexiteers will simply blame the remainers. Matthew Parris had a great article a while ago about how Brexiteers need to be happy, they won! Why are they so angry etc etc.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,575 ✭✭✭✭briany



    A point which the UK establishment have no interest in hearing.

    Even if they started listening, they'd still need a good answer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    downcow wrote: »
    You keep saying it has been agreed. Let me put it another way.

    If an EU negotiating team had gone into negotiations with UK with everyone very aware that any negotiated position had to be brought back to the EU27 for ratification. Then if the negotiators had came back with a plan that left EU beholding to the UK indefinitely and the EU27 was disgusted with it and rejected it. Would you accept me saying,tough, this is the WA and the UK will not reopen it (as if it was now closed) and we won't talk about it??

    That would never happen, the EU team had a clear mandate and would never have agreed to present a finalised deal for ratification if it was unacceptable to the memberstates. That would be a foolish and unprofessional thing to do.

    If the unthinkable did happen and the EU team signed off on a deal and presented it for ratification which was entirely unacceptable to the memberstates, and that deal was duely rejected during the ratification process by the EU, then the UK would be well within its rights to refuse to reopen the text of the deal negiotiated.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,022 ✭✭✭Call me Al


    farmchoice wrote: »
    ya behind all the votes and the politicking is the stark reality that a huge percentage of the Uk populace if not an actual majority have become so disenfranchised as to vote for self harm because they feel they have nothing left to lose .
    Those voters were also told that brexit didn't mean losing access to the Single market. That the vision for the new UK would simply expand beyond their current borders. So if their inclination was to dislike some things about the EU of course you'd jump at the opportunity. Wouldn't everyone!
    So in their eyes there was no self-harm. They made sure not to over-think things either.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,815 ✭✭✭10000maniacs


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    I wonder should Ireland push to secure some of these car manufacturing jobs?

    We have been doing well with banking and services but the manufacturing jobs seem to pass us by. They would be a great boon to, say the midlands.

    Presume a country like Poland might get some of the action.

    Ireland is just too far away physically from the heart of Europe for that to succeed. We would be very poor at JIT manufacturing to Europe, Brexit or no Brexit. And the profit margins for the automobile industry would be on a knife-edge.
    Our economy is more suited to agriculture, small volume products with high gross profit margins, software and services.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,912 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    The IDA were allegedly close to getting Nissan in to Cork (before May's bribe), so we are trying. No nuclear power does not help in energy heavy industry like that


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    KildareP wrote: »
    This picture demonstrates in ways words cannot how the UK got the negotiations started off (the UK is on the right hand side of the table):
    david-davis.jpg?w968h681

    If the EU negotiating team came back to the EU27 with a deal so bad that it caused widespread disgust, then the EU27 would swiftly sack the entire negotiating team and take a long swift hard collective look at themselves to figure out how they made such an embarrassing error. They would then re-select a negotiating team who were on no uncertain terms what the collective wishes of the EU27 were. And if the UK said "Well, if you want to get some further leeway from us, we need to see some leeway on your side" then we'd accept that as a cost of our mistake.

    Whereas the UK negotiating team came back with a deal so bad it caused, not just widespread disgust, but widespread outrage, within the UK parliament. But rather than UK parliament saying, wow the UK side have really goofed up here, they all collectively and universally rounded on the EU and have since been blaming the EU entirely for the UK getting (what they deem to be) such a bad deal!!! And when the EU offered to give them some leeway in return for the UK giving some equal leeway back, the UK not only didn't offer any leeway, but they doubled down on their "red lines" instead!!!

    And none of the above even takes account of the fact that it's the UK that is leaving.
    You don't get the upper-hand when you decide to walk away from something.
    You don't get to selectively pick what you can and can't take away with you.
    You don't call the other side horrible names and somehow expect that it will convince them to give you what you want.

    And the frustration that this BS causes is why EU leaders feel justified in saying that those who led the UK down this path without a plan will have a special place in Hell reserved for them.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,912 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    KildareP wrote: »
    I'm not sure if it would be a net benefit.

    It could have big implications on VRT, for one.

    Let's say you charge the VRT on the parts, then the manufacturer will have to pay the VRT on all and any parts brought in from outside Ireland and then seek a refund were they to sell the completed car outside Ireland.

    Similarly, if they were to partially build the car in Ireland and then ship it somewhere else for eventual completion. They're paying VRT on parts, then seeking a refund upon export, possibly paying VRT once more if an Irish person ultimately buys the finished product. Lots of admin fees there!

    Or if you charge the VRT on the fully finished car?
    Again, the manufacturer will have to pay VRT on the completed car upon assembly here and then seek a refund should they export the car outside Ireland to the end user.

    It could also create an unintended competitive advantage - let's say Ford set up shop here and can assemble a car here from parts brought in from outside Ireland - they don't pay VRT on the parts, only on the finished product.

    They can import the parts and assemble the car cheaper - ultimately meaning they can sell it in Ireland cheaper, or offer a comparatively better spec product - than, say, Hyundai can, because Hyundai are paying VRT on the fully finished product, including all and any parts. This would likely be illegal.

    It's for this reason VRT is often argued as the reason why we often see a "paddy spec" option for cars, which sits below the usual base entry model of the UK equivalent vehicle.

    Anyway, I digress somewhat :)

    You totally misunderstand VRT. It's charged at first registration in Ireland only which cars manufactured for export are not

    And it's the total value of the car - not parts. That higher spec cars have higher VRT is due to a higher price

    The Netherlands has a harsher registration tax and has car manufacturing. It has no impacts whatsoever


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,036 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    KildareP wrote: »
    I'm not sure if it would be a net benefit.

    It could have big implications on VRT, for one.

    Let's say you charge the VRT on the parts, then the manufacturer will have to pay the VRT on all and any parts brought in from outside Ireland and then seek a refund were they to sell the completed car outside Ireland.

    Similarly, if they were to partially build the car in Ireland and then ship it somewhere else for eventual completion. They're paying VRT on parts, then seeking a refund upon export, possibly paying VRT once more if an Irish person ultimately buys the finished product. Lots of admin fees there!

    Or if you charge the VRT on the fully finished car?
    Again, the manufacturer will have to pay VRT on the completed car upon assembly here and then seek a refund should they export the car outside Ireland to the end user.

    It could also create an unintended competitive advantage - let's say Ford set up shop here and can assemble a car here from parts brought in from outside Ireland - they don't pay VRT on the parts, only on the finished product.

    They can import the parts and assemble the car cheaper - ultimately meaning they can sell it in Ireland cheaper, or offer a comparatively better spec product - than, say, Hyundai can, because Hyundai are paying VRT on the fully finished product, including all and any parts. This would likely be illegal.

    It's for this reason VRT is often argued as the reason why we often see a "paddy spec" option for cars, which sits below the usual base entry model of the UK equivalent vehicle.

    Anyway, I digress somewhat :)
    VRT is a tax payable when purchasing a new car. The manufacturer does not pay VRT on their produce. It is not a tax on exports or parts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,455 ✭✭✭KildareP


    L1011 wrote: »
    You totally misunderstand VRT. It's charged at first registration in Ireland only which cars manufactured for export are not

    And it's the total value of the car - not parts. That higher spec cars have higher VRT is due to a higher price

    The Netherlands has a harsher registration tax and has car manufacturing. It has no impacts whatsoever
    Interesting, thanks.
    I stand corrected :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,592 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    And a pretty silly point he makes about the jobs. She could have skewered him straight away with the European Medicines Agency.


    I don't think that would have mattered as his point is if the Brexit was delivered the way he wanted it would have meant no jobs would have been lost at all. You cannot prove something that is a hypothetical situation.

    Andrew Neil posted yesterday that the UK is actually leading in terms of growth amongst major European economies and Japan. Canada and the US are ahead of all others at the moment.

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1095408652884893696

    Is this accurate? How could this be given the economic climate within the UK?


    Just in case anyone didn't check on these numbers the follow up reply had a tweet from Chris Giles, Economics Editor at FT, and he showed how the numbers Andrew Neil used is not accurate. The US data is not out yet due to the shutdown as an example and some of the others are just wrong.

    Here is a concluding tweet which sums it all up.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1095652976201555968

    Remember, no matter how good of an interviewer Neil is, he is spreading false news using his status at the BBC. How he still has a job after his outspoken tweets starting showing up just shows how far the BBC has fallen and will continue to fall.


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