Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

youcantakethat wrote: »

But not as many unless Merkel does a deal. At the moment 1 in 7 cars made in Germany are exported to the UK, the UK is an important market for German car manufactures, worth about $98 billion a year. If the UK economy tanks and tariffs are introduced, it is possible those sales to the UK may decline dramatically. The EU sells more to the UK than the UK sells to the EU, and the UK was always one of the main net contributors to EU funds, so it is in the EU's interest to do a deal.

the UK sells more to Ireland than we do to them. We have them over a barrel and should demand an extra €100 Bn. They need us more than we need them.

prawnsambo wrote: »

To be fair, there are a few politicians in Westminster who shine out like diamonds in a dung heap. Jess Phillips for one.

That is one very passionate speech. The sad thing is people would rather believe and respect JRM more with his proper pronouncements when he tells them mockingly they will have cheaper shoes or if they need to use food banks it is actually an uplifting spectacle. Jess Philipps may not sound like a leader but I know she has more moral fibre and leadership qualities and fight in her than Boris Johnson, David Cameron, George Osborne and JRM and the rest of the Eton old boys combined. She had to fight for where she is, they got it handed to them on a silver platter.

youcantakethat wrote: »

Of course there are countries and areas in the EU with lower unemployment than the UK. The point I made earlier in the thread was that UK unemployment last year was less than half of the average unemployment rate in the Eurozone. Of course areas within countries differ, for example there is a huge difference between Silicone valley and Chicago. We were comparing average between countries. Compared with OECD countries outside the Eurozone, unemployment in the Eurozone is very high.

IF things are going so great, why is the use of food banks going up in the UK? Or is that also an indicator of how well a country is doing?

Food bank use in UK reaches highest rate on record as benefits fail to cover basic costs

youcantakethat wrote: »

But not as many unless Merkel does a deal. At the moment 1 in 7 cars made in Germany are exported to the UK, the UK is an important market for German car manufactures, worth about $98 billion a year. If the UK economy tanks and tariffs are introduced, it is possible those sales to the UK may decline dramatically. The EU sells more to the UK than the UK sells to the EU, and the UK was always one of the main net contributors to EU funds, so it is in the EU's interest to do a deal.

This has been discussed before on this thread but here is two posts concerning German car makers and statistics.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=109189709&postcount=5629

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=109190196&postcount=5662

Some statistics from those posts,

In 2017 26.9B euros were exported to the US and 25B to the UK. But if you add the next two single market countries, France (16.3B euro) and Italy (12.3B euro), that already is more than the UK.

In contrast the average UK price for a car imported from Germany is 32 500 euro. By comparison the average export to France is 57 000 euro and Italy is 39 600 euro. The average US price per vehicle exported is 54 500 euro according to the two sources. Spain is at 41 700 euro, Poland is 69 300 euro and the Netherlands is 76 600 euro.

So the average price per German vehicle exported to the UK is the least among those I have listed. The price in China isn't even that excessive, it is just a little more per average than the Netherlands. I am sure we would get a clearer picture if we knew what vehicles were exported to the particular countries and also what type of taxes each country applies, but it does seems that while the UK accounts for a lot of vehicles in total it may not be the most profitable for German car makers.

So the UK is an important market but the amount of cars exported by value, while being the most in the EU, is not as much as the next two markets in the single market. So they will not get a preferential deal over the SM.

As for value, as you can see the average price per car exported is quite low to the UK so it seems that the buy a lot of vehicles, but those could be cheaper than other countries.

farmchoice wrote: »

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

Nicked from Reddit



this chart is doing the rounds at the moment but there is something in it i dont understand.

if there is a vote to rule out leaving on ''no deal'' we then move to a vote on an extension, if this passes there is some sort of an extension requested, but if it fails? the assumption on the above chart is that we are back to leaving on the 29th with no deal, but where is that coming from, may has stated that the only way to rule out no deal if the WA is rejected is to revoke article 50.
yesterday she explicitly said that following a vote to rule out no deal and then a vote in favor of a short extension no deal is then back on the table in the extension period( this makes logical scene, if such a thing exists in brexit). But if the vote to extend fails? we have then had 2 previous votes one to reject the WA and one to reject ''no deal''. these are not either/or votes.

logically this leaves the only option available to the PM revoke article 50.

May has pretended to take No Deal off the table, but actually, she has made it much more likely. I Listened to her speak in the HOC yesterday and she was repeatedly asked 'If there is a vote to leave the EU with no deal, will you whip your party to vote against it?" and she repeatedly refused to answer it, but on every opportunity, she stated that she has categorically ruled out voting to revoke Article 50.

May has absolutely not taken No Deal off the table here, She has made it much more likely that between now, and June, the UK will crash out of the EU. If the HOC do not vote for May's deal, and they do not vote to leave with no Deal, they will vote for an extension, But if this extension is only until June, and the UK does not participate in EU elections, than no further extension is allowable so they will ether vote under duress for May's deal, or crash out.

If the UK miss out on the EU parliament elections, they might even lose the ability to unilaterally withdraw Article 50

May's strategy is extremely irresponsible. She is deliberately stripping power from the Parliament in the hope that hundreds of them will climb down and support her previously rejected deal.

murphaph wrote: »

I doubt very much the German domestic market buys most of the cars built here.

Where are the other 4/5 cars going?

Looks like the threat of delay has Mr Rees Mogg reconsidering the May Deal.

Hopefully some nice words in the codicil will be enough to get him and his chums over the line. He really wants to leave on the 29th.

UK accepting May's Deal is the ideal outcome for me now - the UK needs Brexit, and they should have it.

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

She cannot verbally take no deal off the table as that is one of her bargaining chips with the EU to possibly get a better deal.

I've yet to see someone explain what "take no deal off the table" actually means?

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Akrasia wrote: »

She cannot verbally take no deal off the table as that is one of her bargaining chips with the EU to possibly get a better deal.

Nonsense. She knows the negotiations with the EU are over. She is using the threat of a No deal as a bargaining chip in negotiating with her own party and the opposition.

She's not threatening the EU with no deal, she's threatening the Parliament, and the United Kingdom.

It's a bit like someone negotiating an Armastice threatening to burn all the food supplies in their own nations granaries unless their own parliament agrees to the deal. Its borderline treasonous

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

Where are the other 4/5 cars going?

Ok I googled the German wiki.

It says while Japan and above all the US and China produce for domestic consumption, 69% of passenger vehicles built in Germany are exported, the highest passenger vehicle export rate of any country.

"Während Japan, aber vor allem China und die USA stärker für das Inland produzieren, gehen von der deutschen Pkw-Produktion rund 69 % ins Ausland – die weltweit höchste Pkw-Exportquote."

https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automobilindustrie

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

I've yet to see someone explain what "take no deal off the table" actually means?

The only way to actually take no deal off the table is to introduce a bill (law) that changes the default position from crashing out of the EU, to withdrawing Article 50.

The only way to do this would be to have a law that says something like 'if there is no agreement between the UK and the EU by the 29th of March, the uk will automatically, unilaterally revoke Article 50'


If the HOC was serious about avoiding No deal, they would introduce this as an amendment some time in the next few weeks.

prawnsambo wrote: »

You need to have a look at this, which is the source for the information in that fact checker.

From a cursory reading, it looks like just over 5.5 million passenger cars were produced in Germany in 2017 of which roughly 3.5 million were registered in Germany. That's out of a global production of almost 85 million cars.

It doesn't say that. Those 3.5m registered vehicles include foreign built ones.

Akrasia wrote: »

The only way to actually take no deal off the table is to introduce a bill (law) that changes the default position from crashing out of the EU, to withdrawing Article 50.

The only way to do this would be to have a law that says something like 'if there is no agreement between the UK and the EU by the 29th of March, the uk will automatically, unilaterally revoke Article 50'


If the HOC was serious about avoiding No deal, they would introduce this as an amendment some time in the next few weeks.

But that's the worst option from a governmental perspective and is, frankly, not going to happen. It would be the HoC unilaterally going against the "will of the people" in the referendum. The only way I can see actually taking no deal off the table would be a guarantee of a referendum which was a choice between a deal of some sort and no brexit.

prawnsambo wrote: »

You need to have a look at this, which is the source for the information in that fact checker.

From a cursory reading, it looks like just over 5.5 million passenger cars were produced in Germany in 2017 of which roughly 3.5 million were registered in Germany. That's out of a global production of almost 85 million cars.

murphaph wrote: »

It doesn't say that. Those 3.5m registered vehicles include foreign built ones.

It seems there is a fair bit of (purposeful) confusion over some of the figures - in any event I think we can agree that the number imported into the UK is not has high as was being previously suggested?