Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

robinph · 13-03-2019 3:41pm

lawred2 wrote: »

and if the will of the people is still to leave - then what?

We're back to 2016 with no idea what 'leave' means.

But we do now know what leave means, it's the deal that the EU has offered. Put that to the people and see what they think of it. If after all this time they still decide that they would prefer that deal to remain then so be it.

I'll be annoyed with the idiocy of my country people, but I'll at least know they they were voting for an actual thing rather than an idea of a theory of potentially a unicorn.

20silkcut · 13-03-2019 3:46pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

AS a person pointed out (can't recall where, could have been a poster on here, a radio show or whatever) just the simple fact that so many people have had to endure the uncertainty of it all is shameful.

Not knowing if you will have access to the medications you need to live come April is massively stressful. Not knowing if you will be able to continue to live in the Costa Del Spain and continue to avail of medical treatment. Not knowing whether you business will still be able to operate.

To put so many people through such stress on the basis on a political game is unconscionable.

Sure, Toyota, Airbus etc, they will all be fine in the grand scheme of things. But Mary in Hull who needs cancer treatment, Joe and Joanne Normal who moved to Spain because of his arthritis and are in negative equity so can't afford to move back.

They are the real losers, and the forgotten people in all of this.

But still the opinion polls are showing in the 40’s for both leave and remain with a large cohort of undecided.
If that was reflected in the HOC it would be frighteningly close tonight.
A 2nd referendum would be real seat of the pants stuff.
Joe Duffy currently really raising the prospect of the Government relenting on the backstop.

lawred2 · 13-03-2019 3:48pm

robinph wrote: »

But we do now know what leave means, it's the deal that the EU has offered. Put that to the people and see what they think of it. If after all this time they still decide that they would prefer that deal to remain then so be it.

I'll be annoyed with the idiocy of my country people, but I'll at least know they they were voting for an actual thing rather than an idea of a theory of potentially a unicorn.

And it has roundly been defeated in Parliament twice. How then could Parliament turn around and offer what they have rejected twice to the people? It's a no deal for sure then.

It's also worth saying that that deal was a consequence of May's red lines which were plucked for the ERG's backside... The UK could leave on far better terms than that deal.

Laois_Man · 13-03-2019 3:50pm

lawred2 wrote: »

and if the will of the people is still to leave - then what?

We're back to 2016 with no idea what 'leave' means.

The ballot paper in any new referendum would have to present options of stay and leave - but this time, ask for further specificity from leave voters as to what what "leave" they want - no deal exit, or the WA

13-03-2019 3:55pm

lawred2 wrote: »

And it has roundly been defeated in Parliament twice. How then could Parliament turn around and offer what they have rejected twice to the people? It's a no deal for sure then.

It's also worth saying that that deal was a consequence of May's red lines which were plucked for the ERG's backside... The UK could leave on far better terms than that deal.

It's been rejected by disparate grouos with their own agendas, specifically those misrepresenting what the possible views of the previous referendum were.
Leave means leave, but with a Norway deal, no deal, Swiss deal, May deal... Etc?

tuxy · 13-03-2019 3:55pm

Laois_Man wrote: »

The ballot paper in any new referendum would have to present options of stay and leave - but this time, ask for further specificity from leave voters as to what what "leave" they want - no deal exit, or the WA

Too complicated for the UK electorate, remember David Cameron campaigned that the alternative voting system was too complicated and 68% of voters agreed with him back in 2011.

lawred2 · 13-03-2019 3:55pm

Laois_Man wrote: »

The ballot paper in any new referendum would have to present options of stay and leave - but this time, ask for further specificity from leave voters as to what what "leave" they want - no deal exit, or the WA

there can be other withdrawal agreements

this is TM's WA and has no popular support either in Parliament or publicly based on the few polls I've seen..

A GE and a Labour government could see an entirely more agreeable WA

robinph · 13-03-2019 3:56pm

lawred2 wrote: »

And it has roundly been defeated in Parliament twice. How then could Parliament turn around and offer what they have rejected twice to the people? It's a no deal for sure then.

It's also worth saying that that deal was a consequence of May's red lines which were plucked for the ERG's backside... The UK could leave on far better terms than that deal.

It's still the only offer on the table though other than cancel A50, and after this evening the no-deal option will be rejected by parliament as well.

robinph · 13-03-2019 3:59pm

lawred2 wrote: »

there can be other withdrawal agreements

this is TM's WA and has no popular support either in Parliament or publicly based on the few polls I've seen..

A GE and a Labour government could see an entirely more agreeable WA

Not before the end of March though, and probably not before the EU elections either. I'm not convinced that an extension should be granted for a general election anyway. If Corbyn was already the PM and asking for an extension then it's a different matter, but an extension to have another roll of the dice and get May again shouldn't be entertained by the EU.

tuxy · 13-03-2019 4:01pm

Has anyone figured out what the Brexit secretary does?
We have had three of them now I think and I have no idea what they do and none of them ever have the slightest idea what May is planning or in most cases not planning.

Calltocall · 13-03-2019 4:02pm

My belief is that a huge part of the problem the uk finds itself in is that never has there been a time in history when not one but both leaders of the two largest parties in the uk have been so completely unsuitable for their roles, so inept and out of their depth, may is a terrible negotiator, she has been unable to predict not once but twice how the parliament would vote on her deal yet she still remains in play, all the while corbyn behaves like some drunken man in a bar rambling on and unable to change the course of where they are heading, to the cliff face, he is completely toothless.

Even minor events such as May getting publicly annoyed at juncker for saying she was nebulous was very telling, someone at her level with that much at stake should not be allowing herself to get drawn into petty spats like that, again a sign that she is simply not up to the job. If you look down through the years the UK had some strong, abled negotiators who managed to secure difficult peace deals between the uk and ireland etc but people of that calibre are simply not there now and what is there are just not at that level or up to the task.

I think we are heading for a no deal scenario on the 29th as I am not convinced all eu members will agree to the extension and with good reason as the likelihood is that if they do extend May will go back for a third vote which again will be voted down then at that stage you are into a general election and there is no guarantee that if Corbyn got in he would be able to bring everyone together to get a deal passed either.

A disaster, You couldn’t make it up.

Roger_007 · 13-03-2019 4:08pm

tuxy wrote: »

Has anyone figured out what the Brexit secretary does?
We have had three of them now I think and I have no idea what they do and none of them ever have the slightest idea what May is planning or in most cases not planning.

A Brexit Secretsry is an MP who has nothing else to do for a week or two.

Leroy42 · 13-03-2019 4:09pm

At what point will people start to raise the question to the likes of Johnson, JRM et al in regards to the possible effects of No Deal?

Whilst they calmly state that No Deal carries no risk, and in fact offers unknown but almost limitless rewards, why are they not asked what if you are wrong? What if No deal is actually bad and even some of the negative stuff happens?

Should the people hold them personally responsible? Or the entire Tory party?

They are just allowed to rabbit the usual stuff about it all being Project Fear.

Anteayer · 13-03-2019 4:09pm

I would tend to agree. I've always assumed that the most likely outcome is a tumble out, without any plan and in a chaotic manner rather than a specific parliamentary decision to leave. They won't be able to agree anything before the deadline and the EU isn't going to offer an extension unless they specifically ask for one and provide reasons as to why, and I don't see either of those forthcoming.

I'd suspect though, if there is a complete economic meltdown, the next UK government will probably end up signing up to some kind of a comprehensive trade deal with the EU that amounts to associate membership anyway. Practically and economically speaking, I don't think they're going to be faced with a whole lot of choice.

Dont be at yourself · 13-03-2019 4:10pm

It seems like the EU won't agree to an extension until the House of Commons can reach a consensus, and that also seems like an impossibility.

Will the EU now run down the clock and effectively force the UK into accepting the WA? Having now tipped their No Deal hand, it's clearly not better than a bad deal, so they may need to swallow May's deal.

I don't really see another GE solving anything, and a second public vote would be a huge risk and also unlikely to unite the country around remaining, regardless of outcome.

Anteayer · 13-03-2019 4:14pm

I honestly don't think the EU has any interest in trying to force anyone to do anything. The UK's just floundering around negotiating with itself and that has been the case since before Brexit even began.

Basically the EU position seems to be : We're here if you want to talk to us in a reasonable manner, otherwise : Good luck with whatever it is you're doing and sure we'll still be friends. Do call around for a cup of coffee sometime.

Leroy42 · 13-03-2019 4:16pm

Why is there this condition that a 2nd ref needs to unite the country? What vote ever does that? The 1st certainly didn't and was never likely to but that didn't stop the Leavers demanding one.

A 2nd Ref could, potentially, stop the madness. Put a halt to such a dramatic change and give the UK the time and space to have a proper meaningful debate on the subject and reorganise their politics to take account of the new normal.

lawred2 · 13-03-2019 4:17pm

SNIP.

Roger_007 · 13-03-2019 4:18pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

At what point will people start to raise the question to the likes of Johnson, JRM et al in regards to the possible effects of No Deal?

Whilst they calmly state that No Deal carries no risk, and in fact offers unknown but almost limitless rewards, why are they not asked what if you are wrong? What if No deal is actually bad and even some of the negative stuff happens?

Should the people hold them personally responsible? Or the entire Tory party?

They are just allowed to rabbit the usual stuff about it all being Project Fear.

I have always thought that the leading Brexiteers are mostly well-heeled individuals who will not suffer economically if it all goes wrong. They are mostly egotists who are trying to make a name for themselves and play to the worst elements of English nationalism for support.

Laois_Man · 13-03-2019 4:18pm

tuxy wrote: »

Too complicated for the UK electorate, remember David Cameron campaigned that the alternative voting system was too complicated and 68% of voters agreed with him back in 2011.

The binary choice presented in June 2016 has since been shown to have been drastically over simplified. You cannot give a binary choice on what is not a binary question!

A second referendum with a choice of Remain or May's deal would lead to virtual civil war!

Anteayer · 13-03-2019 4:19pm

I think the UK needs to have a rather serious national conversation about what it is and where it's going. This thing has opened and exposed every crack from the mistrust between the countries that make up the UK, power imbalances, regional imbalances, social class divisions, issues around national identity as well as giving carte blanche to a load of jingoists, xenophobes and racists who are throwing kicks in from the side.

Undoing all of that isn't going to be easy! It's made worse by the fact that you've got no leadership coming from the top at all.
In some ways, it's also showing why having someone like a figure head president who could have maybe addressed both houses with a large dose of 'cop the hell on!!!' would have been useful. The Queen can't really do that as she's bound up in being utterly apolitical to the point the media interpret what she's trying to communicate through the choice of hats she's making!?!

Akrasia · 13-03-2019 4:20pm

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

It seems like the EU won't agree to an extension until the House of Commons can reach a consensus, and that also seems like an impossibility.

Will the EU now run down the clock and effectively force the UK into accepting the WA? Having now tipped their No Deal hand, it's clearly not better than a bad deal, so they may need to swallow May's deal.

I don't really see another GE solving anything, and a second public vote would be a huge risk and also unlikely to unite the country around remaining, regardless of outcome.

If the Uk leave it until March 29 to finally back TMs withdrawal deal, that does not give the EU27 the time required to ratify the WA and the UK might crash out anyway.

This is what people mean by the UK sleepwalking into a crash out.
If there isn't a WA or extension, then every single treaty the EU had with the UK will automatically cancel on the night of March 29

Hurrache · 13-03-2019 4:27pm

Spelman and Mathouse amendments selected for later. I read a tweet from someone earlier who when they asked someone in the EU if there was anything to make the EU take a firmer or harder stance, he answered the Malthouse amendment.

edit, here it is
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1105812896255221760

BonnieSituation · 13-03-2019 4:29pm

Akrasia wrote: »

If the Uk leave it until March 29 to finally back TMs withdrawal deal, that does not give the EU27 the time required to ratify the WA and the UK might crash out anyway.

This is what people mean by the UK sleepwalking into a crash out.
If there isn't a WA or extension, then every single treaty the EU had with the UK will automatically cancel on the night of March 29

The WA has already been ratified by the EU27.

We're just waiting on the Brits to sort it out.

Laois_Man · 13-03-2019 4:29pm

20silkcut wrote: »

Joe Duffy currently really raising the prospect of the Government relenting on the backstop.

Only caught the last 10 minutes of that - but in those 10 minutes alone, Duffy inaccurately described this mornings UK Government announcement several times saying that every Pierre, Jurgen and Mario in the EU will be able to avoid UK tariffs by coming into Rep Ireland, going up the M1 and over to he UK mainland. Not so!

RTE are irritating me about Brexit in general at the moment!

But many people may ask the question.....which is most important to us, the Irish agriculture industry or the guaranteed continued success of the peace process

gmisk · 13-03-2019 4:30pm

Roger_007 wrote: »

I have always thought that the leading Brexiteers are mostly well-heeled individuals who will not suffer economically if it all goes wrong. They are mostly egotists who are trying to make a name for themselves and play to the worst elements of English nationalism for support.

Entirely true just look at Jacob Rees Mogg, Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage, they saw an opportunity and took it.
Enough people in the UK were gullible enough to believe their rubbish unfortunately.
How anyone could believe a word out of the mouths of those clowns Farage especially is beyond me.

You just need to look at the below to know JRM wont be suffering come what may (so to speak!).
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/jacob-rees-mogg-s-group-launches-second-irish-fund-1.3573675

ToBeFrank123 · 13-03-2019 4:30pm

JRM and the ERG want to lead the country but without any of the accountability of leadership. They want to lead from the sidelines and be close to the exit door should anything go wrong.

Table a no confidence motion and put your name forward for leadership if you want to actually lead.

Hurrache · 13-03-2019 4:31pm

Laois_Man wrote: »

RTE are irritating me about Brexit in general at the moment!

RTE have been quote good on it. But Duffy is one of those guys who all of a sudden thinks he's an expert on any topic up for discussion on his show, but instead regularly comes across as a clueless idiot throwing random statements out assuming his listeners believe it.

Larbre34 · 13-03-2019 4:32pm

Meanwhile Boris has gone on talk radio and commented that money spent on historical child sex abuse inquiries is "£60m spaffed up the wall!"

For those not familiar with certain vulgar colloquialisms, spaffed means to ejaculate wildly. Needless to say carnage has erupted.

Oh BoJo, you are a legend.

Zubeneschamali · 13-03-2019 4:33pm

20silkcut wrote: »

A 2nd referendum would be real seat of the pants stuff.

No, because while we and the EU would prefer they remain, we are also OK with them leaving with the deal as negotiated.

Seat of the pants is where we are now - less than 3 weeks from a No Deal crashout.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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