Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo · 13-03-2019 5:19pm

20silkcut wrote: »

I’m wrong it’s 28 per cent backing no deal.

40% want out overall between no deal and some sort of deal.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/883660/support-for-brexit-scenarios/

To be fair, that's an old poll dating back to July 2018. Other posters have linked to more recent ones and you're pretty close in your original statement. Mad.

gmisk · 13-03-2019 5:19pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

AS a person pointed out (can't recall where, could have been a poster on here, a radio show or whatever) just the simple fact that so many people have had to endure the uncertainty of it all is shameful.

Not knowing if you will have access to the medications you need to live come April is massively stressful. Not knowing if you will be able to continue to live in the Costa Del Spain and continue to avail of medical treatment. Not knowing whether you business will still be able to operate.

To put so many people through such stress on the basis on a political game is unconscionable.

Sure, Toyota, Airbus etc, they will all be fine in the grand scheme of things. But Mary in Hull who needs cancer treatment, Joe and Joanne Normal who moved to Spain because of his arthritis and are in negative equity so can't afford to move back.

They are the real losers, and the forgotten people in all of this.

I agree with you but I would guess a large enough proportion of people like that actually voted for brexit.
There are plenty of examples available.
https://www.ft.com/content/877e1c96-2cce-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc

Some of them might regret it now.....but its a bit f#cking late!

https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-latest-news-expats-spain-vote-leave-regret-decision/
The quotes in that story are a joy
“freedom of movement in Europe, for the proper Europeans”.
Translation....whites only.

VinLieger · 13-03-2019 5:22pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

To be fair, that's an old poll dating back to July 2018. Other posters have linked to more recent ones and you're pretty close in your original statement. Mad.

Those polls only show 40% saying no deal shouldn't be taken off the table and politicians shouldn't vote against no deal as an option.

There's no poll specifically showing 40% being in favour of No Deal happening

prawnsambo · 13-03-2019 5:32pm

VinLieger wrote: »

Those polls only show 40% saying no deal shouldn't be taken off the table and politicians shouldn't vote against no deal as an option.

There's no poll specifically showing 40% being in favour of No Deal happening

The one that was linked to in the same post as the one you refer to above had No deal at or around 35%. I wasn't going to quibble about the missing 5% because 35% is a mad number. And if you eliminate the don't knows, it pops up above the 40% mark.

This one

Water John · 13-03-2019 5:34pm

They are trying to force Spellman to withdraw her motion. She hasn't done so as of now.
Govn't will whip against it.

Headshot · 13-03-2019 5:36pm

Water John wrote: »

They are trying to force Spellman to withdraw her motion. She hasn't done so as of now.
Govn't will whip against it.

Can you remind me what that motion is again?

Quin_Dub · 13-03-2019 5:36pm

gmisk wrote: »

These polls pretty much back up that 40% want a no deal brexit.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-think-the-government-should-or-should-not-rule-out-no-deal-brexit/
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-think-mps-should-vote-for-or-against-a-no-deal-brexit/

The question in the survey is "Should they rule out no deal "

Not ruling it out (as per Nigel Dodds , the "threat of it") and wanting to leave under no deal are very different things I think..

VinLieger · 13-03-2019 5:37pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

The one that was linked to in the same post as the one you refer to above had No deal at or around 35%. I wasn't going to quibble about the missing 5% because 35% is a mad number. And if you eliminate the don't knows, it pops up above the 40% mark.

This one

Again that is not explicitly saying they want a no deal brexit just they don't think MPs should vote against it being on the table.

I would suggest many people still believe it should not be taken off the table as part of a negotiating strategy instead of believing it should actually happen as this is something we are still hearing from brexiteer MP's.

Water John · 13-03-2019 5:39pm

It simplifies the Govn't motion by taking away the second paragraph.
'The House says that leaving without an agreement is off the table.'
Is the approx text.

prawnsambo · 13-03-2019 5:43pm

VinLieger wrote: »

Again that is not explicitly saying they want a no deal brexit just they don't think MPs should vote against it being on the table.

I would suggest many people still believe it should not be taken off the table as part of a negotiating strategy instead of believing it should actually happen as this is something we are still hearing from brexiteer MP's.

Well this is the question they were asked:

Following the defeat of the Government's Brexit deal in Parliament, MPs will now vote on whether the UK should leave the EU without a deal. Do you think MPs should vote for or against a No Deal Brexit?

I know you can look at that different ways, but it's pretty slanted towards no deal as an option rather than a bargaining position.

Professor Moriarty · 13-03-2019 5:44pm

34% of the British public support Britain leaving with no deal. 49% want an extension.

VinLieger · 13-03-2019 5:46pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well this is the question they were asked:

I know you can look at that different ways, but it's pretty slanted towards no deal as an option rather than a bargaining position.

Unless there's a polling question explicitly asking people to choose a no deal brexit over anything else then i don't think its correct to say 40% support no deal brexit.

lawred2 · 13-03-2019 5:55pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

34% of the British public support Britain leaving with no deal. 49% want an extension.

for what?

prawnsambo · 13-03-2019 5:56pm

VinLieger wrote: »

Unless there's a polling question explicitly asking people to choose a no deal brexit over anything else then i don't think its correct to say 40% support no deal brexit.

There's this one, which when you take out the don't knows adds up to 33% against remain 53% and TM's deal 13%. And the one above that the Prof linked at 34%. It's not 40%, but it's still a lot madder than I thought. Far too close to be talking confidently about referendums imo.

Professor Moriarty · 13-03-2019 5:58pm

lawred2 wrote: »

for what?

To Article 50 presumably. From the link:

"Britain leaves without a deal on March 29th" versus "Brexit is delayed until after March 29th"

rob316 · 13-03-2019 6:01pm

They'll have to revoke it, its that or no deal.

In a time where Donald Trump is the president of the USA, the UK are managing to look more incompetent. Incredible really

BlitzKrieg · 13-03-2019 6:06pm

Did Gove really say no deal brexit might lead to a return of direct rule in Northern Ireland???

Now we, in the circumstances that the house has voted for no deal, would have to start formal engagement with the Irish government about further arrangements for providing strengthened decision-making in the event of that outcome, and that would include the very real possibility of imposing a form of direct rule.

So I know stormont remains closed but brexit is really ticking all the boxes to encourage a return to the troubles

DrumSteve · 13-03-2019 6:06pm

There was always a part of me that thought I would enjoy this more as they ripped themselves apart, but it's just sad at this stage.

DrumSteve · 13-03-2019 6:07pm

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Did Gove really say no deal brexit might lead to a return of direct rule in Northern Ireland???

So I know stormont remains closed but brexit is really ticking all the boxes to encourage a return to the troubles

Looks like he is trying to get the DUP on board, lord knows Sammy would love to have his masters back at the wheel.

Harry Palmr · 13-03-2019 6:08pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

34% of the British public support Britain leaving with no deal. 49% want an extension.

Not sure if anyone should believe any of the polling - the first question put to a member of the public should be "Do you understand what No Deal means and entails?" "Do you understand what an extension is and entails?" and so on. I suspect many have not got an iota.

Irish Praetorian · 13-03-2019 6:11pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Not sure if anyone should believe any of the polling - the first question put to a member of the public should be "Do you understand what No Deal means and entails?" "Do you understand what an extension is and entails?" and so on. I suspect many have not got an iota.

Ignorance hasn't stopped things getting this far.

Professor Moriarty · 13-03-2019 6:11pm

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Did Gove really say no deal brexit might lead to a return of direct rule in Northern Ireland???

So I know stormont remains closed but brexit is really ticking all the boxes to encourage a return to the troubles

Unsurprising really. Gove detests the GFA.

Hurrache · 13-03-2019 6:13pm

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Did Gove really say no deal brexit might lead to a return of direct rule in Northern Ireland???

So I know stormont remains closed but brexit is really ticking all the boxes to encourage a return to the troubles

Yip, he did indeed.

Like DrumSteve said, it's probably directed between the eyes of the DUP, although I'm not so sure they'd find that idea particularly upsetting.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsNI/status/1105865241458552832

Professor Moriarty · 13-03-2019 6:13pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Not sure if anyone should believe any of the polling - the first question put to a member of the public should be "Do you understand what No Deal means and entails?" "Do you understand what an extension is and entails?" and so on. I suspect many have not got an iota.

Probably. But that data is about as good as you'll get.

Water John · 13-03-2019 6:15pm

Spellman tries to withdraw her motion but Bercow says that's up to other signatories and won't accept.

Larbre34 · 13-03-2019 6:15pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

My problem with the end of your post is that people have been treating Johnson as this slightly brash, un-PC but ultimately sound and dependable Uncle type figure and that sort of comment is the basis for his popularity while behind the scenes he's shown himself to be a cold, calculating & ruthless figure.

Certainly. I said it with much irony.

Hurrache · 13-03-2019 6:18pm

Water John wrote: »

Spellman tries to withdraw her motion

Do we know why?

Hurrache · 13-03-2019 6:18pm

Back to Gove and direct rule, under the GFA is that even possible (I think it is as direct rule was implemented a few times since the GFA was signed)? There'd be mayhem on the streets up there if it was attempted.

blackwhite · 13-03-2019 6:22pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Not sure if anyone should believe any of the polling - the first question put to a member of the public should be "Do you understand what No Deal means and entails?" "Do you understand what an extension is and entails?" and so on. I suspect many have not got an iota.

Fortunately or unfortunately, the right to vote does not come with the condition that you actually understand what you are voting on.

For much of the UK electorate (and likely in most other countries as well) - that apparently means that most take zero responsibility for informing themselves as to what they are voting on.

Hurrache · 13-03-2019 6:23pm

LOL, meow
https://twitter.com/Coburn4Brexit/status/1105879305916243970

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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