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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    No work next Monday?

    gfs-2-186.png?12


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    12z GFS rolling out, not looking too bad, looks like more potential than the 06z run to my untrained eye.


    12Z
    h850t850eu.png

    06Z
    h850t850eu.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GEM though with -18 uppers to the south of England :pac:.

    pVKRZfE.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    GFS actually bringing the beast forward

    h850t850eu.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    GFS can't be relied on at all for detail on snow at this range, but the general picture seems to be pretty damn snowy. Particularly for the East.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Beauty - Lovely low pressure system over Britanny delivering snow in a northeast wind.

    prectypeuktopo.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    leahyl wrote: »
    Are you actually kidding me - grey all around Cork area on above chart :-(

    Its a chart for the 1st of March. Being a few KM away from the snow in that chart is the least of your worries:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Beauty - Lovely low pressure system over Britanny delivering snow in a northeast wind.

    prectypeuktopo.png


    That's akin to mapping a dream across the smnaptic area of your brain next Sunday.
    I.e could snow just about anywhere,even cork,maybe.probably not though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Quick nasty mspaint job but you get the idea :D

    https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/965269686555377668


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    And the very last teaser as were gone into bonkers territory

    prectypeuktopo.png

    Fairly solid run overall, few more of these and we'll be talking!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    We are on the brink,,,, only issue is the lead time, the real stuff doesn't arrive for 7 days.

    The only major hiccup i can see is if a shortwave forms in the North Sea and disrupts the eastwards advection of the siberian airmass.

    It must be said - if these charts do verify - it will be a once in a half century event.


  • Registered Users Posts: 156 ✭✭joe199


    Level heads needed lads good owl Irish weather won't give up the white gold to easily many more flip flops to come


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    joe199 wrote: »
    Level heads needed lads good owl Irish weather won't give up the white gold to easily many more flip flops to come

    It will go down every route to dullify,delay and drag it out, until it's on its knees and sadly gives in and gets its ticket and reluctantly heads west to Ireland,kicking it's heels in the Irish sea,before being given its marching orders and told it has to head west out into the north Atlantic kicking and screaming over the torturous mild Atlantic like a reluctant,disgusted teenager,being somewhere uncool,it doesn't want to be.

    It's so strange to see the blue shading associated with the cold air mass reluctantly splurge out west over the Atlantic coastline.
    It's a beautiful sight to see the misery of our climate reversed.

    And ever so briefly everyone is reminded of our latitude on the earth and how ridiculously 'special' it is.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,096 ✭✭✭pad199207


    ECM could be about to give us the two fingers


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    pad199207 wrote: »
    ECM could be about to give us the two fingers

    Yeah, very similar to the ICON 12z.

    ERntTpz.gif

    cTuocke.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    I'm sounding like a broken record at this stage but even today its still a full week before any real cold reaches us, as it has been for the past week. The trend all week has been for less amplification and less cold the closer we get to T0. Some spectacular charts and it does look like we'll be in an easterly or south easterly flow but nothing interesting is getting much closer


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    ffs

    ECM0-240.GIF?18-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    I'm sounding like a broken record at this stage but even today its still a full week before any real cold reaches us, as it has been for the past week. The trend all week has been for less amplification and less cold the closer we get to T0. Some spectacular charts and it does look like we'll be in an easterly or south easterly flow but nothing interesting is getting much closer

    Even 3-4 days ago there wasn't cold within a week, and I've not seen much taming, Infact much of the opposite.

    However caution advised, and there's no point being emotional this far out at every up and down the charts throw out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,371 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    ECM just goes to show how fragile this actually is. Long way out yet but caution is required - no point getting your hopes up this far out.

    I remember 2012 and the disaster that turned in to so quickly when it seemed so imminent.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,671 ✭✭✭Rougies


    Latest ECM says head to the Med for snow @240hrs, -10C uppers over a 14C Tyrrhenian sea should produce some nice fat streamers for EDIT: Sardinia (not Sicily)! :pac:

    I wouldn't get too worried about it yet, always gonna be a few scary wobbles from the models this far out. the overall picture still looks good :o


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    catrat12 wrote: »
    What’s actually happening

    The arguably best model in the world is saying that the cold blast is gonna miss us by a few hundred kilometers to our south

    Most of the other models say we're going to get pummelled.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    All the decent charts were and for some models still in FI territory so wouldn’t be getting too hung up on the latest ECM output. The trend is always you’re friend.
    I think some so called experts are getting carried away with what influence a SSW will have on our weather here. Record breaking as it is there is no guarantee it will bring the snow fest most in here crave. Nothing can be ruled out at this stage.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭Darwin


    catrat12 wrote: »
    What’s actually happening

    Potentially very cold from Monday week or thereabouts, but disagreement amongst the major weather models, so depending on which model you pick, we may get cold frosty nights or snowmagdden.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    It does seem ECM 12z OP was an outlier in its ensembles. Could be better, could be worse.

    VXWsity.gif

    OJjruoQ.gif

    rKGBnBe.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,483 ✭✭✭typhoony


    I think we'll have to wait until Wednesday to get clear picture of what is likely to happen, in the modern winter we've seen these charts slide south many times, there were a series of winters that brought snow to Greece where the high over Scandinavia sunk south west dragging the bitter cold away from our shores. beyond the potential easterly we do have a strong signal of a retrogressing high and a potent Northerly\Northeasterly


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,551 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I can imagine how the toys are being strewn around the place over on netweather after the latest ECM run.
    If it becomes a consistent trend and other models flip to that solution, then it's time to worry. The point about the snowy cold still being a week away is misleading, it was never really progged to get here sooner. However, the December 2012 easterly is a good reminder that the models can flip to a less a favourable outcome at the last minute. So I will not buy my ticket for the siberan express until it shows snowy cold within 48 hours.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    This far out, better to see a southward trend than north, south can only go so far while north can start an extinction event.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    GFS 18Z up to +87 now (9am Thursday) and so far everything's being pushed slightly West, which is the way we want it to go. Will be interesting to see how the rest of it goes.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,371 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Yes, cold air encroaching at 120 hrs. Queuing up behind

    gfs-1-120.png?18


This discussion has been closed.
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