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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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Comments

  • #7982
    cml387
    Registered Users Posts: 8,357 ✭✭✭cml387


    Maybe there's no one around with long enough memories, but EFTA countries took a dim view when Britain abandoned them when they joined the EU in 1973.


  • #7983
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    cml387 wrote: »
    Maybe there's no one around with long enough memories, but EFTA countries took a dim view when Britain abandoned them when they joined the EU in 1973.

    As did Oz and NZ, but both are more Asian-orientated now.


  • #7984
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭McGiver


    cml387 wrote:
    Maybe there's no one around with long enough memories, but EFTA countries took a dim view when Britain abandoned them when they joined the EU in 1973.

    Because at that time EFTA was a serious competition to the EEC and the EFTA potentially thought they could end up being the dominant and/or more important block. But as the EEC transformed into the EU, everyone else left and the EU overtook EFTA in importance, I am quite sure that EFTA gave up this aspiration and opted to closely associate with the EU as its attachment. Since 1973 EFTA's objective and position changed dramatically.


  • #7985
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭McGiver


    An Ciarraioch wrote:
    As did Oz and NZ, but both are more Asian-orientated now.

    Due to geography. It's a very simple thing.

    Geography is actually one of the strongest arguments against any sort of Brexit as well - UK's most important trading partner will always be the EU due to geographical proximity. It's unlikely UK can divert significant proportion of its trade to say Australia or Cambodia. And it can certainly trade with them within the EU framework.


  • #7986
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users Posts: 6,691 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    I made a throw away comment about "Shinner"who quite frankly I couldn't care less about ... is that ok?

    No, it's not OK to make throwaway comments about something you don't care about, in the Politics forum, especially when it's irrelevant to the discussion. (See the charter) After Hours is the place for that kind of discussion.

    Regarding the increasing noise about "Norway +" being a model for the future UK-EU relationship: it seems unlikely that the existing trio will allow the UK join their bloc, and very likely that the hardest Brexiteers will complain that "Norway +" is nothing other than "EU -" and the worst of all worlds.

    Could the EU be persuaded to consider instead a revised "Switzerland" model, taking advantage of the British situation to create a simpler set of rules for Switzerland, that align with post-Brexit UK? There are quite a few parallels in the attitudes of both countries towards outsiders, coupled with a need to engage in relatively frictionless cross-border travel. Rules governing financial services could be copy-and-pasted, and the UK would opt in to various EU programmes as Switzerland does at the moment.


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  • #7987
    dr.fuzzenstein
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 16,635 ✭✭✭✭dr.fuzzenstein


    cml387 wrote: »
    Maybe there's no one around with long enough memories, but EFTA countries took a dim view when Britain abandoned them when they joined the EU in 1973.

    Whatever new alliance the Brits now join, there's 2 issues.
    First, everyone knows the Brits are only out for the biggest buck they can make and give nothing in return for. So they're users, they're selfish and don't care about their trade partners.
    Second, every alliance they join will immediately mobilise opposition, and again there will be talk of "we won't kowtow to any new master".
    I don't think the Brexit deal has any chance. Too many interest groups, all pulling in opposite directions.
    Everyone just wants their own pile and screw everyone else.
    UK will sink into chaos.
    Just my prediction.


  • #7988
    cml387
    Registered Users Posts: 8,357 ✭✭✭cml387


    dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »
    Whatever new alliance the Brits now join, there's 2 issues.
    First, everyone knows the Brits are only out for the biggest buck they can make and give nothing in return for. So they're users, they're selfish and don't care about their trade partners.
    Second, every alliance they join will immediately mobilise opposition, and again there will be talk of "we won't kowtow to any new master".
    I don't think the Brexit deal has any chance. Too many interest groups, all pulling in opposite directions.
    Everyone just wants their own pile and screw everyone else.
    UK will sink into chaos.
    Just my prediction.

    That's why the EU was Britain's best hope. Try to influence a large block from within.
    And indeed it worked for many years, Thatcher fought and won many battles for Britain yet still maintained the benefits of membership.

    It's a comment on leadership that we are where we are today.


  • #7989
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,517 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    cml387 wrote: »
    That's why the EU was Britain's best hope. Try to influence a large block from within.
    And indeed it worked for many years, Thatcher fought and won many battles for Britain yet still maintained the benefits of membership.

    It's a comment on leadership that we are where we are today.

    This whole episode can be (and most definitely will be) analysed and commented on from several different valid and equally fascinating angles.
    • The willingness of many loudmouth politicians to step back and allow a PM to take the flak while simultaneously waiting in the sidelines with knives sharpened hoping that when the hard work is done, they can remove her and take what they think is their position of entitlement.
    • The influence of the media.
    • The absence of strategy within UK political parties.
    • The absence of understanding the true benefits and practices of the EU.
    • The absence of a worthwhile opposition.
    • The emergence of social media influencing.
    • The risk in holding non-defined 'wishful thinking' type referendums.
    • The willingness to ignore the realities of trade deal negotiations
    • The complete lack of knowledge within the UK government on the politics associated with one of the countries which make up the union.
    • The willingness to hold to idealistic positions in the face of clear and present evidence.
    • What an expert negotiating team and leader looks like.
    • The willingness to lie publicly when everyone knows it is a lie without risk of sanction.
    • The willingness of many to believe those with inherited wealth and Oxbridge educations that elected representatives in the EU are the elite.
    • The belief within such a large part of the electorate that the Empire still exists.

    And I'm sure there are several more.

    Part of me thinks all this is fascinating (A greater part is genuinely worried about what it all means). We are living in a truly historic time. By that I mean that this period will be referred to consistently in future and we will be able to say "I remember".


  • #7990
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,433 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Sunday Times reporting May is to delay the vote on Tuesday so she can demand concessions on the backstop at the meeting of EU leaders on Thursday.


    Looks like the EU's solidarity with Ireland is about to be tested once and for all.


  • #7991
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Sunday Times reporting May is to delay the vote on Tuesday so she can demand concessions on the backstop at the meeting of EU leaders on Thursday.


    Looks like the EU's solidarity with Ireland is about to be tested once and for all.

    EU solidary has been rock solid for the past 2 years. Are you expecting this to change?


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  • #7992
    road_high
    Registered Users Posts: 19,383 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    LeinsterDub wrote: »
    EU solidary has been rock solid for the past 2 years. Are you expecting this to change?

    They’ve been pretty clear. The deal with May was it, there’s nothing more to negotiate. The UK with their delusions of self importance think they’re still top of the EU priority list whereas most in Europe are exacerbated and want this over.


  • #7993
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 17,957 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »
    Whatever new alliance the Brits now join, there's 2 issues.
    First, everyone knows the Brits are only out for the biggest buck they can make and give nothing in return for. So they're users, they're selfish and don't care about their trade partners.
    Second, every alliance they join will immediately mobilise opposition, and again there will be talk of "we won't kowtow to any new master".
    I don't think the Brexit deal has any chance. Too many interest groups, all pulling in opposite directions.
    Everyone just wants their own pile and screw everyone else.
    UK will sink into chaos.
    Just my prediction.

    Yes, they've given the game away. A bunch of untrustworthy mavericks who would stab you in the back at a moment's notice. The idea of "Global Britain" is laughable. They are insular and self obsessed.


  • #7994
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    CelticRambler wrote: »
    No, it's not OK to make throwaway comments about something you don't care about, in the Politics forum, especially when it's irrelevant to the discussion. (See the charter) After Hours is the place for that kind of discussion.

    Regarding the increasing noise about "Norway +" being a model for the future UK-EU relationship: it seems unlikely that the existing trio will allow the UK join their bloc, and very likely that the hardest Brexiteers will complain that "Norway +" is nothing other than "EU -" and the worst of all worlds.

    Could the EU be persuaded to consider instead a revised "Switzerland" model, taking advantage of the British situation to create a simpler set of rules for Switzerland, that align with post-Brexit UK? There are quite a few parallels in the attitudes of both countries towards outsiders, coupled with a need to engage in relatively frictionless cross-border travel. Rules governing financial seervices could be copy-and-pasted, and the UK would opt in to various EU programmes as Switzerland does at the moment.

    I think this is an interesting point, and its certainty what the UK have strove for - a super particular tailored deal - but its what the EU want to avoid at all costs - and who can blame them? Ultimately, it is the EU who are negotiating from a strong positon here, and they won't entertain the furtherment of another complicated arrangement such as they have with the Swiss. That's old hat.

    The UK are leaving the bloc and they will not have as favourable a relationship outside as they have within. They need to fucķing understand that. Excuse my EU French.


  • #7995
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    cml387 wrote: »
    That's why the EU was Britain's best hope. Try to influence a large block from within.
    And indeed it worked for many years, Thatcher fought and won many battles for Britain yet still maintained the benefits of membership.

    It's a comment on leadership that we are where we are today.

    10/10


  • #7996
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Sunday Times reporting May is to delay the vote on Tuesday so she can demand concessions on the backstop at the meeting of EU leaders on Thursday.


    Looks like the EU's solidarity with Ireland is about to be tested once and for all.

    Not at all. If May goes back to the EU she will be given short shrift. Strasbourg will look like a holiday, she will be hounded out of the place. There is no more negotiations to be had and no room for manoeuvre. Either she can get this deal through her parliament or she cant.

    Sadly, it looks like she can not. I have been criticising this appaling 'leader' for years now, but I now find myself in a strange situation where I am rooting for her to succeed with her botched negotiated deal, but still, it looks impossible.


  • #7997
    dr.fuzzenstein
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 16,635 ✭✭✭✭dr.fuzzenstein


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    Not at all. If May goes back to the EU she will be given short shrift. Strasbourg will look like a holiday, she will be hounded out of the place. There is no more negotiations to be had and no room for manoeuvre. Either she can get this deal through her parliament or she cant.

    Sadly, it looks like she can not. I have been criticising this appaling 'leader' for years now, but I now find myself in a strange situation where I am rooting for her to succeed with her botched negotiated deal, but still, it looks impossible.

    I wouldn't put the blame entirely at May's door. She inherited a giant crock of sh*t and she somehow has to make it work. She isn't even in favour of Brexit.
    She must sometimes feel like a teacher in kindergarten, trying to teach while the kids are out of control and yelling and throwing things.
    Cameron left a giant turd on the carpet and she gets to clean it up. No matter how much shake'n'vac she uses, the smell will linger and the stain on the rug will never go away.


  • #7998
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,258 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    Not at all. If May goes back to the EU she will be given short shrift. Strasbourg will look like a holiday, she will be hounded out of the place. There is no more negotiations to be had and no room for manoeuvre. Either she can get this deal through her parliament or she cant.

    Sadly, it looks like she can not. I have been criticising this appaling 'leader' for years now, but I now find myself in a strange situation where I am rooting for her to succeed with her botched negotiated deal, but still, it looks impossible.
    I'll expect EU to tell her that sure she can get a better deal; cancel A50 and remain in the union. If not; well what you can get is already on the table.


  • #7999
    murphaph
    Registered Users Posts: 19,018 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »
    I wouldn't put the blame entirely at May's door. She inherited a giant crock of sh*t and she somehow has to make it work. She isn't even in favour of Brexit.
    She must sometimes feel like a teacher in kindergarten, trying to teach while the kids are out of control and yelling and throwing things.
    Cameron left a giant turd on the carpet and she gets to clean it up. No matter how much shake'n'vac she uses, the smell will linger and the stain on the rug will never go away.
    Her red lines. She could have told the truth in the beginning. She's about 40% responsible. Cameron can have the rest of the responsibility.


  • #8000
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,549 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »
    I wouldn't put the blame entirely at May's door. She inherited a giant crock of sh*t and she somehow has to make it work. She isn't even in favour of Brexit.
    She must sometimes feel like a teacher in kindergarten, trying to teach while the kids are out of control and yelling and throwing things.
    Cameron left a giant turd on the carpet and she gets to clean it up. No matter how much shake'n'vac she uses, the smell will linger and the stain on the rug will never go away.


    Is there any indications other than she campaigned for Remain that she doesn't want Brexit? I frame this question in the context that Jeremy Corbyn wants to leave the EU but he campaigned for Remain as well so her one speech in favour of staying in the EU doesn't mean she is a Remainer, only she will do and say what she thinks is appropriate for her political ambitions.

    As for her not taking the entire blame, she chose the red lines, she chose to trigger article 50 before she knew what Brexit, they wanted, she chose to ignore the voice of Remainers during this whole process and she is the one that was in charge when the Home Office really became a hostile environment for immigrants (and UK citizens). She is the one that didn't guarantee the rights of EU citizens until very late in the negotiations, which would have been a goodwill gesture to the EU. She has referred to people as citizens of nowhere who believe they are part of the wider world and not just of where they were born and then just recently she referred to EU citizens who has made their lives in Brittain and enhanced (in the majority by a big margin I would say) as queue jumpers.

    She is a xenophobe and probably a racist as well, she made all her troubles herself and now being a "very difficult woman" she will not back down. So if see her struggling to get her deal through and having to deal with politicians acting as children, she made her bed and there really isn't any reason to feel sorry for her. If you do, just read one or two articles of Amelia Gentleman on the Windrush scandal and you should feel contempt for the architect of the misery people have suffered.

    https://www.theguardian.com/profile/ameliagentleman


  • #8001
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,549 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    murphaph wrote: »
    Her red lines. She could have told the truth in the beginning. She's about 40% responsible. Cameron can have the rest of the responsibility.


    You are being generous to only give her 40% of the blame. I would go as far as 90% of the blame on her. Yes she chose to take up a very difficult challenge, but she has failed at every step along the way and Cameron is not to blame for that.


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  • #8002
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,472 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    If, as is likely, the deal is voted down or postponed then TM has little option but to ask for further negotiations from the EU.

    A lot will depend on the numbers. Currently it appears to be overwhelmingly rejected, therefore some tweaks will not be enough.

    I think the EU will be open to further negotiation as they do not a no deal either. The problem is that the EU is under the same pressures that TM is, ie not to be seen to capitulate, and with issues like Italy, Hungary and Poland not to mention Greece will be looking on wondering why the UK is being bailed out whilst they were forced to suffer, any renogiation will need to be seen as gaining something for the EU.

    So the UK want a unilateral position on the backstop. What are they prepared to give in return? Will they agree to pay for and maintain the border? Will they agree to help fund the costs that EU will bear so upgrading ports, roads etc.

    (I am not suggesting any of that, just an example of what may be expected).

    But all the talk in the UK is that the EU will fold at the last minute, TM simply needs to try harder and bang the table. This is even coming from Davis and Raab who were involved yet seem to have no solutions to offer. IDS was on Preston recently and he simply said that EU will do a better deal, because. He didn't elaborate (of course) or signify what the UK should look to concede or even that there was anything to concede.

    They keep referring to Canada or other trade deals where they say that the EU gave it at the last minute. They don't mention Greece or Ireland where they very much didn't.

    And they never get pulled up on their dual position that the EU is a dictatorship run by a cabal of elites from which the UK has lost control and the seeming position that these very same autocrats will be forced to concede due to pressure from individual members.


  • #8003
    Borderhopper
    Registered Users Posts: 67 ✭✭Borderhopper


    With all the talk of Guinness, Diageo, etc wtc, I don't think there has been any discussion on the effects on the NHS of a no deal Brexit. True, there has been talk of pharmaceuticals (of which the U.K. makes relatively little, and lacks capacity/licensing to produce their own, disregarding the economies of scale needed for drug production. Effects on staff have had some discussion.

    But there are hidden services without which the NHS cannot function. This is not idle speculation, my area of expertise is laboratory diagnostics, more specifically blood transfusion. Almost all of the equipment/consumables we use in labs is supplied from EU countries, supplied through local/UK contractors. These are not easily replaced, if at all, from within the U.K. There are large facilities e.g. Roche Diagnostics, but these are mostly warehouses for goods from EU and some customer support.

    It's these hidden things that almost preclude a no deal Brexit. Without diagnostics, there are no surgeries, maternity services, trauma provision and so on and so on. But unless you're in the industry, very little is discussed. Almost no planning is being undertaken to allow for no deal, as even hospital managers are ignorant to what is involved.

    Until it goes wrong.


  • #8004
    Gerry T
    Registered Users Posts: 1,410 ✭✭✭Gerry T


    RobMc59 wrote:
    THANK YOU-finally someone answers my question without the hysterical banshee like wailing of an EU acolyte !


    It is good to have a brexiteer debate on here, we've have some very good contributors, but not enough of them. You'r prob mixing up business with the aviation industry which must have 50% ownership in the EU. Also car manufacturing which needs 55% of parts to be made in the EU for the car to qualify for EU free trade deals globally.
    For those of us watching brexit for the last couple of yrs, it has become clear that from a financial perspective the UK will be damaged, how much no body really knows but it will hit people very hard. The other hits are harder to see, like travel through EU, delays etc. But the benefits, well there's none really. There's no real change in border or immigration and no one has ever listed the laws the ecj has implemented that would be removed.
    So maybe you can debate the substantive issues, rather than one about an alcoholic drink, one which I love but is sadly declining in Ireland as young people's tastes change.
    From your perspective, why don't the people of the UK demand a second ref to cancel brexit, get back in the EU, what's wrong with being in a club where all members prosper and help each other, giving to the less developed so they can grow faster and catch up....just like ireland did


  • #8005
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users Posts: 6,691 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Gerry T wrote: »
    It is good to have a brexiteer debate on here ...
    I don't think RobMc59 is a brexiteer ... confused.png
    J Mysterio wrote: »
    I think this is an interesting point, and its certainty what the UK have strove for - a super particular tailored deal - but its what the EU want to avoid at all costs - and who can blame them?

    I was thinking about it from the EU's point of view. They've already got the Swiss "pick-n-mix" deal that comes back to haunt relations every few years (e.g. most recently when the Swiss voted to "take back control" of migrant workers). Down south they've got Turkey that's been a difficult neighbour, but the kind you want to keep on speaking terms with; and now they've got the Brits.

    Would it not make sense for the EU to design an "Awkward Feckers Trade Association" for these kinda-European-but-not countries, with its own starting-point treaty and an annex of costs and benefits for each opt-in (and cost and limitations for not opting-in). That would take a lot of the steam out of the Brexiteers' cakeist nonsense (or equivalent in other countries).


  • #8006
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,104 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Hope Hilary Benn's motion wins in Parliament on Tuesday. He has Chaired the all party committee and has them coming up with a unanomous position.

    'One of these – tabled by Benn and with strong cross-party backing – calls both for the deal to be rejected and for parliament to rule out a no deal outcome. Senior MPs believe that if the Benn amendment is chosen by the speaker and voted on before the main motion, it could be passed, meaning the government motion would be superseded. The effect would be a double defeat for May, and narrow her options down, as she would not be able to proceed towards a no deal. Some senior MPs say this will make a second referendum more likely.' Guardian


  • #8007
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Leroy42 wrote:
    And they never get pulled up on their dual position that the EU is a dictatorship run by a cabal of elites from which the UK has lost control and the seeming position that these very same autocrats will be forced to concede due to pressure from individual members.

    This duality is typical for Europhobes, anti-EU populists and extremists. The EU is a universal scapegoat - Socialist conspiracy, USSR reincarnation conspiracy, neoliberal conspiracy, superstate conspiracy, unelected bureaucrat conspiracy, globalist conspiracy, Vatican conspiracy (this one is from the DUP founder :D) etc. It is too weak and slow to act yet it is supposedly a dictatorship, which should be strong and fast by definition, but at the same time it should be more democratic, which we would make it even slower to act and "weaker", should be stronger, which would require more competencies and member states ceding more sovereignty, but at the same time allegedly demands too much competencies for itself... Whatever you want to blame our criticise about the EU there is always a way to do it, as an international organisation constantly in flux (presidency, EC, EP) it's an easy target. And the Tories and their press have mastered this blame game over three decades. The list of euro myths they produced in this period is astonishing.


  • #8008
    dr.fuzzenstein
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 16,635 ✭✭✭✭dr.fuzzenstein


    Enzokk wrote: »
    You are being generous to only give her 40% of the blame. I would go as far as 90% of the blame on her. Yes she chose to take up a very difficult challenge, but she has failed at every step along the way and Cameron is not to blame for that.

    Cameron kicked it all off. He literally steered the Titanic directly into the iceberg. It's not really made any better by the fact that the British people actually voted to have a shipwreck.
    He deserves a hell of a lot more than 10% of the blame.
    It was utter hubris and monumental stupidity on his part that caused this whole mess.
    May's handling of the whole debacle is be questionable, but one should not discount the pester power of the screaming toddlers that make up the British government.
    I firmly believe that the combined IQ of any committee is substantially below the level of it's dumbest member -20.
    And the larger the group and the more diverse and opposing the viewpoints, the worse it gets.
    I'm amazed they got the deal they got. Even though it has absolutely no chance whatsoever.
    But no deal could ever have a chance, because there are enough factions that badly want it to fail and the only deal they will accept is no deal. Going the full "Rule Britannia", the whole Nelson, make Britian great again, etc...
    Basically inbred nationalistic numbskulls.


  • #8009
    road_high
    Registered Users Posts: 19,383 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    How likely are the EU to agree to changes to the agreement though? To suit May and co? Seems to be the latest spin this morning!


  • #8010
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,104 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Slim to none before a HoC vote.


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  • #8011
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 11,992 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    First Up wrote: »
    He is also utterly discredited after his contribution to the Iraq disaster.

    Yep you hide Campbell away, the man is odious to say the least.

    Plenty more people can articulate his POV without coming across as arrogant.


    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/46492287/alastair-campbell-told-to-shut-up-during-newsnight-brexit-debate


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