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Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,257 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    downcow wrote: »
    You keep doing this. You make stuff up to suit your argument and then say it with confidence in the hope it won't be question. Heres just a few from this post:
    Milk is not seasonal - there is a tiny uplift at the height of the summer but the pricing structure ensures winter milk is incentifised thereby all but cancelling out fluctuation.
    Almost all milk that goes south is turned into long life products eg baby formula, cheese etc.
    Almost all the product returns to the UK.
    The main tennent of your argument is that ROI will not take NI milk leaving the farmers stuck with it, but the UK will desperately need ROI milk - lol the NI farmers must be going to pour all their milk out just to annoy the Brits lol

    Yes it is.

    There are two classes of milk - liquid milk which is sold as milk in supermarkets, and milk which is used for onwards processing into cheese and butter.

    Liquid milk is contracted to be supplied throughout the year and gets a premium price, while milk for processing is dried off in the winter period, otherwise food costs would make it unprofitable.

    NI produces a lot of liquid milk - just go to Dunnes and see where their milk comes from. This milk largely crosses the border.

    Brexit will destroy NI farming by removing their markets.


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,380 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    downcow wrote: »
    This is an excellent post. Right on the money. Much of it I hadn't considered until reading. Thank you
    If we do enter a 50 year period of economic despair I guess we will just dig in like the Irish and become even more proud of our independence. At more or less every point over the last 100 years it would have benefited ROI economically (and indeed equity, rights, separating church and state, etc) to come back under British control - there weren't too many voices calling for it or complaining about the pain their decision caused.

    Independence.... Irish.


    Please don't you dare compare British colonisation of countries around the world to the UK entering a free trade union signed up by its own government and citizens and having benefitted to this free agreement over decades.

    You are distasteful in your conditioning


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Anthracite


    Enzokk wrote: »
    He made the mistake of believing Johnson and Patel. I mean why wouldn't he believe a daughter of Indian immigrants when she tells him they will relax immigration laws that will help save his industry?

    I try not to get angry at people that have been conned to vote Leave as it happens all the time. At least he acknowledges he was conned. It is people that are doubling down, a few on here comes to mind, and are now prepared to leave on terms that are many times worse than they were promised by the liars that I think is naive. They still think there will be light at the end of the tunnel for them.
    Obviously O/T, but I'm baffled by the notion that you need to have actual chefs from Pakistan or India to cook curry. Do you need to be Italian to cook a pizza?

    Or is it that people from India/Pakistan/Bangladesh are a lot cheaper to hire and can be worked harder?

    This bit from the article is suggestive:
    They said if we were to support the leave campaign, they would ensure we were able to get more chefs from south Asia by relaxing immigration rules with lower salary thresholds to hire staff from outside the EU.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,937 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Enzokk wrote: »
    But the story is not wrong though, doesn't matter where it is appearing. In a no-deal Brexit we are going to have to choose where we put in a border unless there is a side arrangement to protect the GFA.

    This is the point that ROI will get their bluff called. They have been telling us how vital no border is to protecting the GFA and that protecting the GFA is their priority because they are so concerned about the safety of us Nordies.
    Well obviously if this is true the in a no deal scenario ROI will instigate any necessary checks between ROI and France - Unless of course the GFA stuff is all a big red herring bluff
    Which do you guys think it is?


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,214 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    downcow wrote: »
    This is an excellent post. Right on the money. Much of it I hadn't considered until reading. Thank you
    If we do enter a 50 year period of economic despair I guess we will just dig in like the Irish and become even more proud of our independence. At more or less every point over the last 100 years it would have benefited ROI economically (and indeed equity, rights, separating church and state, etc) to come back under British control - there weren't too many voices calling for it or complaining about the pain their decision caused.

    This is abject stuff.

    Do you really see the EU as a colonising force?

    Or Irish Independence from a colonial ruler as akin to Brexit?

    I can't believe anyone could be that stupid. So it must be something else. Something closer to being an offensive attention seeker.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 33,380 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    downcow wrote: »
    This is the point that ROI will get their bluff called. They have been telling us how vital no border is to protecting the GFA and that protecting the GFA is their priority because they are so concerned about the safety of us Nordies.
    Well obviously if this is true the in a no deal scenario ROI will instigate any necessary checks between ROI and France - Unless of course the GFA stuff is all a big red herring bluff
    Which do you guys think it is?

    No the border will be put up. And your own citizens will flock down here for jobs. The tide will turn and then the UK will want to rejoin.

    I can wait. The jobless won't be able to.

    Enjoy it though. It's not being smug it's called rational thinking.

    You know the same type of rational thinking that could have had NI as a highly prized go between for the UK and the EU with a ridiculously special position. but the likes of yourself rail against it. That , that is amusing.

    The old adage of nose face comes to mind.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,790 ✭✭✭volchitsa


    downcow wrote: »
    You keep doing this. You make stuff up to suit your argument and then say it with confidence in the hope it won't be question. Heres just a few from this post:
    Milk is not seasonal - there is a tiny uplift at the height of the summer but the pricing structure ensures winter milk is incentifised thereby all but cancelling out fluctuation.
    Not knowing much about this, I googled it, and various studies seem to say you are wrong on this? Progressive dairyman: Seasonal changes in milk production

    In fact according to this article below (The challenges of dairy seasonality), Ireland (and NZ) are the only two major milk producers which seek to use that seasonality rather than combat it:
    It all comes down to issues of seasonality. New Zealand is the only developed country in the world where the dairy industry is predominantly seasonal. [A correction and apology to my Irish friends. Ireland has a dairy industry, about one quarter the size of the New Zealand industry which is also predominantly seasonal. They focus on butter, hard cheeses and other products which have long shelf lives.]
    downcow wrote: »
    Almost all milk that goes south is turned into long life products eg baby formula, cheese etc.
    Because of seasonality, according to the articles I see coming up.
    downcow wrote: »
    Almost all the product returns to the UK.
    Really? Agriland.ie Irish dairy exports to Asia trebled from 2012 to 2017
    Asia A Key Driver In Export Growth
    Approximately 25% of Ireland’s dairy exports travel to the UK, 30% to Europe and approximately 45% travel to the rest of the world.

    “Last year alone the value of Irish dairy exports outside of Europe grew by 9% and we expect to see that figure continue to grow in the next number of years."
    downcow wrote: »
    The main tennent of your argument is that ROI will not take NI milk leaving the farmers stuck with it, but the UK will desperately need ROI milk - lol the NI farmers must be going to pour all their milk out just to annoy the Brits lol
    You're telling someone else what they are "really" saying. Never a reliable source IMO. LOL is a pretty good response to that, I find. I prefer to hear the poster themselves, not what someone else says they are saying.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,645 ✭✭✭✭El Weirdo


    downcow wrote: »
    This is the point that ROI will get their bluff called. They have been telling us how vital no border is to protecting the GFA and that protecting the GFA is their priority because they are so concerned about the safety of us Nordies.
    Well obviously if this is true the in a no deal scenario ROI will instigate any necessary checks between ROI and France - Unless of course the GFA stuff is all a big red herring bluff
    Which do you guys think it is?
    Remind us again who it was that voted to leave the EU?


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,937 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Originally Posted by downcow View Post
    This is an excellent post. Right on the money. Much of it I hadn't considered until reading. Thank you
    If we do enter a 50 year period of economic despair I guess we will just dig in like the Irish and become even more proud of our independence. At more or less every point over the last 100 years it would have benefited ROI economically (and indeed equity, rights, separating church and state, etc) to come back under British control - there weren't too many voices calling for it or complaining about the pain their decision caused.
    listermint wrote: »
    Independence.... Irish.


    Please don't you dare compare British colonisation of countries around the world to the UK entering a free trade union signed up by its own government and citizens and having benefitted to this free agreement over decades.

    You are distasteful in your conditioning
    You are completely missing the point. I am making no comparison between why either happened. I am simply pointing out that the surprise being expressed by Irish people that British people may be able to ignore a bit of pain to get their independence is ironic - just very very ironic.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,937 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Originally Posted by downcow View Post
    This is an excellent post. Right on the money. Much of it I hadn't considered until reading. Thank you
    If we do enter a 50 year period of economic despair I guess we will just dig in like the Irish and become even more proud of our independence. At more or less every point over the last 100 years it would have benefited ROI economically (and indeed equity, rights, separating church and state, etc) to come back under British control - there weren't too many voices calling for it or complaining about the pain their decision caused.
    lawred2 wrote: »
    This is abject stuff.

    Do you really see the EU as a colonising force?

    Or Irish Independence from a colonial ruler as akin to Brexit?

    I can't believe anyone could be that stupid. So it must be something else. Something closer to being an offensive attention seeker.
    I have no idea why that rattled so many cages. I say again I wasnot / am not comparing the reasons UK and Ireland lost their independence - Entirely different and I would apologise if I had said anything that might have implied that in the slightest.
    I am simply pointing out that many people put independence above a bit of economic pain and I am saying that it is Ironic many Irish people can't see that means a lot to many Brits - just very very ironic


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,257 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    downcow wrote: »
    This is an excellent post. Right on the money. Much of it I hadn't considered until reading. Thank you
    If we do enter a 50 year period of economic despair I guess we will just dig in like the Irish and become even more proud of our independence. At more or less every point over the last 100 years it would have benefited ROI economically (and indeed equity, rights, separating church and state, etc) to come back under British control - there weren't too many voices calling for it or complaining about the pain their decision caused.

    So emigration started in 1921.

    In 1846-1849 there was a famine where half the population was reduced to starvation while the British Government permitted food to be exported. Emigration was used to rid the large estates of peasant populations. Emigration was always a GB government policy - they needed the cheap labour.

    The treatment of Ireland by the GB Gov in the 1920s and 1930s made running a fledgling country impossible - including the economic war over the land annuities. Of course in 1939 there was no beef left to feed a starving Britain.

    A hundred years later, we have solved most of the problems that we inherited from GB and now they have come up with more problems.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,937 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    listermint wrote: »
    No the border will be put up. And your own citizens will flock down here for jobs. The tide will turn and then the UK will want to rejoin.

    I can wait. The jobless won't be able to.

    Enjoy it though. It's not being smug it's called rational thinking.

    You know the same type of rational thinking that could have had NI as a highly prized go between for the UK and the EU with a ridiculously special position. but the likes of yourself rail against it. That , that is amusing.

    The old adage of nose face comes to mind.

    I just find this argument ironic coming from an Irish person


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,790 ✭✭✭volchitsa


    downcow wrote: »
    Originally Posted by downcow View Post
    This is an excellent post. Right on the money. Much of it I hadn't considered until reading. Thank you
    If we do enter a 50 year period of economic despair I guess we will just dig in like the Irish and become even more proud of our independence. At more or less every point over the last 100 years it would have benefited ROI economically (and indeed equity, rights, separating church and state, etc) to come back under British control - there weren't too many voices calling for it or complaining about the pain their decision caused.


    You are completely missing the point. I am making no comparison between why either happened. I am simply pointing out that the surprise being expressed by Irish people that British people may be able to ignore a bit of pain to get their independence is ironic - just very very ironic.
    And the difference that you are missing is that the British people chose to enter the EU in the first place, and had several referenda since then about it, so they had all sorts of opportunities to leave relatively painlessly, particularly by not joining in the first place.

    Once the country chose to join because they thought it was in the country's interests to do so, there is no reason why any sane person should choose to inflict economic damage on the country by leaving without a well thought out set of plans for doing so.

    Ireland seizing its first real chance to gain an independence it never chose to give away in the first place, and doing so despite the predicted economic toll, is so different that your desperation to use anything to justify the UK's current self-inflicted crisis laughable really.

    Where are the UK/ EU equivalents to Ireland's food exports to the UK during the famine, or the various bloody reprisals fpr previous attempts to leave the EU? Nothing? But yeah, of course the Uk is happy to accept the economic harm caused by leaving an organisation it chose to enter and in whose laws it had a significant say. That's totally like Ireland in the British Empire. [/SARCASM off]


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,937 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    So emigration started in 1921.

    In 1846-1849 there was a famine where half the population was reduced to starvation while the British Government permitted food to be exported. Emigration was used to rid the large estates of peasant populations. Emigration was always a GB government policy - they needed the cheap labour.

    The treatment of Ireland by the GB Gov in the 1920s and 1930s made running a fledgling country impossible - including the economic war over the land annuities. Of course in 1939 there was no beef left to feed a starving Britain.

    A hundred years later, we have solved most of the problems that we inherited from GB and now they have come up with more problems.

    I can't go there as its too far off topic and we would end up haveing a debate about who sent the food out off ireland during the famine etc etc etc and that would not be useful


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,380 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    downcow wrote: »
    I just find this argument ironic coming from an Irish person

    It was meant to be.

    That's the gas part. It went straight over your head.

    Ha


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,790 ✭✭✭volchitsa


    downcow wrote: »
    I can't go there as its too far off topic and we would end up haveing a debate about who sent the food out off ireland during the famine etc etc etc and that would not be useful

    Ah go on, make the comparison with the UK's absentee landlords sending food to France while the ordinary British people starve, please!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The EU is not a sovereign entity. It is not a country.

    It is a tading bloc members can leave at any time.

    Total nonsense to compare Brexit with Irish independence. Ridiculous hyperbole.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,937 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    volchitsa wrote: »
    Not knowing much about this, I googled it, and various studies seem to say you are wrong on this? Progressive dairyman: Seasonal changes in milk production

    In fact according to this article below (The challenges of dairy seasonality), Ireland (and NZ) are the only two major milk producers which seek to use that seasonality rather than combat it:



    Because of seasonality, according to the articles I see coming up.

    Really? Agriland.ie Irish dairy exports to Asia trebled from 2012 to 2017

    You're telling someone else what they are "really" saying. Never a reliable source IMO. LOL is a pretty good response to that, I find. I prefer to hear the poster themselves, not what someone else says they are saying.

    Believe it or not I was about to post re my post you are referring to. I had google and discovered that milk production in your country is quite seasonal bu my country has all but removed the seasonality
    https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/news/news-articles/august-2016/ireland%E2%80%99s-seasonal-challenges/#.XGfiUFz7SUk
    "Ireland produces almost six times as much milk in the peak as it does in the trough. This compares with the UK having a PTR of just 1.2. A ratio that has remained relatively stable"

    so this is one of those unusual cases where we are both correct.
    I apologise for accusing you in the wrong - And don't bother apologising to me. I'll take it as read


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    However I wasn't saying that there would not need to be any votes but rather that the votes could be spread out with hopefully only a minority voting against each individual vote. The single vote brought about by Gina Miller's initiative (and amendment by Grieve) meant that both hard line Brexiteers and the various factions of Remainers combined forces to defeat the deal wanted by Ireland. This is not to say it would have been easy (the backstop being the greatest stumbling block) but possibly easier nonetheless than the single vote.
    You seem to be tip-toeing around saying what you actually mean, which has me having to interpret it. And in this case you seem to be saying that they could split the WA into smaller chunks and vote on each of these? I would suspect that this would have a harder time getting it through parliament. Each of the elements provides something that a good chunk of parliament wouldn't approve. Like the settlement sum, the backstop or even the future framework. And if any of them fall, the whole thing falls because this isn't an isolated, Westminster only issue. The EUCo has passed this, the European Parliament has said they'd not pass anything that didn't have the backstop. So you're just trying to move the impasse somewhere else than where it actually belongs.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,015 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    I said it before if cheap low quality food starts flooding UK it be our own farmers who will get their tractors out and block the border. One thing our governments do is listen to farmers.
    And the UFU would organise a first layer of defence at Larne harbour. They would be just as motivated to get NI out of the UK phytosanitary regime and back under an all island one inside the EU.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,937 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    The EU is not a sovereign entity. It is not a country.

    It is a tading bloc members can leave at any time.

    Total nonsense to compare Brexit with Irish independence. Ridiculous hyperbole.

    I was not comparing them. I don't know if this is a concerted attempt to get me sanctioned, but i point out again I was clearly comparing desire for independence and not comparing the situations.
    It wasn't even me pointed out the comparison - if you look back


  • Registered Users Posts: 803 ✭✭✭woohoo!!!


    Can we leave the Irish independence, famine and so on to another thread. It is not relevant.

    The UK is in the process of voluntarily leaving a union that it voluntarily joined. We're haggling over a subsequent trade arrangement. Let's keep the discussion there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,937 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Getting back to where checks will be. Do you guys think in a no deal situation that your government will prioritise protection of the GFA of any annoyance a few checks at the southern ports would cause?
    Again not my question but i think it is a really important one - and please lets not get back into whos fault Brexit is, i would just like to know which position you think your government will take


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,015 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    downcow wrote: »
    This is an excellent post. Right on the money. Much of it I hadn't considered until reading. Thank you
    If we do enter a 50 year period of economic despair I guess we will just dig in like the Irish and become even more proud of our independence. At more or less every point over the last 100 years it would have benefited ROI economically (and indeed equity, rights, separating church and state, etc) to come back under British control - there weren't too many voices calling for it or complaining about the pain their decision caused.
    Leaving the UK was a retrograde step when it comes to civil liberties but this was a slow divergence. It's not like in 1922 divorce became illegal in Ireland. Abortion was illegal everywhere, only becoming legal in GB decades later, same with homosexuality.

    Economically Ireland beyond the north east faired poorly in the UK. Dublin had some of the worst slums of anywhere. Nothing much changed until De Valera got into power and the trade war began. Only a generation before independence a million Irish starved to death and a million more left. Things were not rosy for Ireland within the UK. To compare the UK's privileged position within the EU (vetos and opt outs galore) to Ireland's position within the UK is very wide of the mark.

    Brexit is clearly different. It's a real cliff edge you are approaching in the UK.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,015 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    downcow wrote: »
    Getting back to where checks will be. Do you guys think in a no deal situation that your government will prioritise protection of the GFA of any annoyance a few checks at the southern ports would cause?
    Again not my question but i think it is a really important one - and please lets not get back into whos fault Brexit is, i would just like to know which position you think your government will take
    How do customs checking chicken curry ready meals being exported to France know if chlorinated chicken imported via NI was used or not? It's impossible. It would be the death of Irish agri-food.

    The checks will be along the border insofar as possible.

    The UK will tear itself apart and a united Ireland will be the end result, restoring normality along the border and making farming viable in the former NI again (the first victim of cheap meat and dairy imports will be UK farming). American yogurt and cheese will be far cheaper. American baby formula too. Only the fresh milk market will survive but there will be too many UK producers for that so expensive NI fresh milk (higher transport costs) will be in low demand.

    You are in for a seriously rude awakening I'm afraid.


  • Registered Users Posts: 66,308 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    murphaph wrote: »
    How do customs checking chicken curry ready meals being exported to France know if chlorinated chicken imported via NI was used or not? It's impossible. It would be the death of Irish agri-food.

    The checks will be along the border insofar as possible.

    The UK will tear itself apart and a united Ireland will be the end result, restoring normality along the border and making farming viable in the former NI again (the first victim of cheap meat and dairy imports will be UK farming). American yogurt and cheese will be far cheaper. American baby formula too. Only the fresh milk market will survive but there will be too many UK producers for that so expensive NI fresh milk (higher transport costs) will be in low demand.

    You are in for a seriously rude awakening I'm afraid.

    What has mainly been discussed are the large ticket items. What is often overlooked are the small ones, hundreds of businesses in the north have built themselves on southern trade, electronic goods to hardware and grocery. They will disappear to be replaced with a troubles landscape of deserted buildings and empty car parks. I am dealing with a lot of them at the moment because of a project I am working on and I have constantly asked them what they make of Brexit and none of them have a positive outlook to say the least.




  • downcow wrote: »
    Getting back to where checks will be. Do you guys think in a no deal situation that your government will prioritise protection of the GFA of any annoyance a few checks at the southern ports would cause?
    Again not my question but i think it is a really important one - and please lets not get back into whos fault Brexit is, i would just like to know which position you think your government will take

    The border at the North is a border between the UK and the EU.

    As has been lampooned recently, Ireland is the EU, and the EU is Ireland.

    Why the hell would we have a border between us and France? Why would the EU allow that?

    You voted out. It looks like a hard Brexit, and one of the many prices to pay is peace in the North. Which the English don't give two hoots about.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 498 ✭✭BobbyBobberson


    The border at the North is a border between the UK and the EU.

    As has been lampooned recently, Ireland is the EU, and the EU is Ireland.

    Why the hell would we have a border between us and France? Why would the EU allow that?

    You voted out. It looks like a hard Brexit, and one of the many prices to pay is peace in the North. Which the English don't give two hoots about.

    It really is impossible to overstate just how much of a blindspot Northern Ireland is for the rest of the UK. I gave a presentation in a Uni in the UK recently and was astounded by the ignorance of educated, well read individuals.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,664 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    downcow wrote: »
    You keep doing this. You make stuff up to suit your argument and then say it with confidence in the hope it won't be question. Heres just a few from this post:
    Milk is not seasonal - there is a tiny uplift at the height of the summer but the pricing structure ensures winter milk is incentifised thereby all but cancelling out fluctuation.

    I was just about to point out that ...
    downcow wrote: »
    milk production in your country is quite seasonal bu my country has all but removed the seasonality
    when you did your own research (Tip of the Day: in future do that before you start arguing against a valid point); and then I was going to compliment you on a graceful climbdown - but then you went and ruined everything with a petty
    downcow wrote: »
    don't bother apologising to me. I'll take it as read

    Not to mention this nonsense:
    downcow wrote: »
    At more or less every point over the last 100 years it would have benefited ROI economically (and indeed equity, rights, separating church and state, etc) to come back under British control
    Remind me again how it benefits Northern Ireland to be under British control? With particular reference to "equity, rights, separating church and state, etc". The words "gay marriage" and "abortion" and "no government for more than two years" come to mind.


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  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,565 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    I'm not Adam Boulton's biggest fan but he's penned an excellent piece for Sky News today outlining the faux outrage about the 'lying' mainstream media from Brexiteers, who claim they've been set up, whilst at the same time trying to dictate what questions they are asked in interviews.

    https://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-like-it-or-not-heres-why-i-dont-make-deals-with-interviewees-11638768

    When Boulton asked Daniel Kawczynski about his attempts to draw in the government of another country to the United Kingdom's business and about the Marshall Plan, Kawczynski said that he was promised that he was not going to be asked the question, which seemed to be deflection.

    Of course the whole Brexiteers are now claiming that he has been set-up and this is proof that the mainstream media are setting them up for a fall. But the most interesting thing here is that it shows rather the opposite, that the Brexiteers want to take control of the media and dictate what questions can and cannot be asked, which is rather more worrying as this really would mean the freedom of the media is at serious risk.

    If the UK can't hold their politicians to account and the people making the calls and big rhetoric don't want to back it up or face questions on them and instead carry out faux outrage to hide the fact there's no substance to what they are actually claiming, then no wonder it's in this mess.


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