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Why would anyone give away good tips.

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 36 Merlin44


    In to 11/2 just like that


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    Navan
    02.09.2017
    17:15     Dysios         Paddy Power  ;   15.00


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    Chester
    02.09.2017
    13:40     Manor Park     ;  41.00


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    Chester
    02.09.2017
    13:40     Manor Park     ;  41.00


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    @merlin44 ; yea,  in most cases these are going to steam in. If you miss it as I said on twitter just forget it.  Will be another one. Taking bad value = best way to clear out your bank.  This is nothing more than a feeding frenzy,  I just happen to have my nose in the trough first but in most cases there is usually enough left for everyone to have a bite


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    @merlin44 ; yea,  in most cases these are going to steam in. If you miss it as I said on twitter just forget it.  Will be another one. Taking bad value = best way to clear out your bank.  This is nothing more than a feeding frenzy,  I just happen to have my nose in the trough first but in most cases there is usually enough left for everyone to have a bite


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    manor park didn't hang about too long :(  If you only manage to get on 1 out of every 3 of these then that would surely fix the problem a previous poster mentioned about there being too many selections.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,458 ✭✭✭vandriver


    Have you worked out a win only return on double stakes ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    Chester
    02.09.2017
    14:10     My Reward          Bet 365     @ 8.00


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    ffs  this is a pain in the a$$ to post on the forum,  I tweeted super julius at 17.0 and thought Iposted it here.  But post didnt go up,  seems you have to click submit 3 or 4 times,  so you either get a double post or none at all :(


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    ffs  this is a pain in the a$$ to post on the forum,  I tweeted super julius at 17.0 and thought Iposted it here.  But post didnt go up,  seems you have to click submit 3 or 4 times,  so you either get a double post or none at all :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    winner there, My Reward,  if anyone did em hope ye used yer freebet in the 2:25 on some other nag !!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    winner there, My Reward,  if anyone did em hope ye used yer freebet in the 2:25 on some other nag !!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 35,568 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    This is impossible to follow. It gives the impression of someone putting up selections off the cuff.

    HERE IS MY 3 PICKS IN EACH RACE. 15PTS INVESTED

    JUST FOR FUN, DO NOT FOLLOW OR BACK THESE SELECTIONS

    4.30
    Merry Banter 16-1 pp
    Blitz 7-1 pp
    Impart 7-2 pp

    5.05
    La Vie En Rose 11-2 pp
    Arthur Mc Bride 8-1 pp
    Rite To Reign 7-1 PP

    4.10
    Puchita 14-1 pp
    Crownthorpe 6-1 pp
    Cheeky Rascal 7-2 pp

    5.00
    The Statesman 8-1 pp
    Society Red 11-1 pp
    Euro Nightmare 8-1 pp

    5.35
    Athassel 20-1 bs
    Executive Force 5-1 pp
    Roll On Rory 15-2 pp


    15pts invested , just for the laugh

    I make that 15 pts invested 13 pts lost
    19 pts returned 4pts profit
    Arthur just caught on line , which would have been plus another 8 pts had it held on.
    4pts is good, and I can make profit ALMOST everyday, ON PAPER .


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    107.73     Navan
    02.09.2017
    16:05     Lucca     ;   11.00


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    Navan
    02.09.2017
    16:05     Lucca     ;   11.00


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    Navan
    02.09.2017
    16:05     Traidisiun     @    34.00


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    Navan
    02.09.2017
    16:05     Traidisiun     @    34.00


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    29.0 is ok for Traidisiun    too


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    Lucca still available on PP @ 11.0


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    Lucca still available on PP @ 11.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    Only keeping track on Twitter of the total tips/returns as time limited so take a look there to see how things are going.  Today was pretty much a scratch day, maybe 5 or 6% profit.

    @BorneTobyWilde

    Not really sure what the complex bit is that makes this hard to follow ! You have a horseys name, time he is running at, course, and price to get. Price not there then no bet. If I show you the code which pulls the data I use back from Betfair it will pale in comparison to the data algorithm I use to calculate the probable starting price of a horse.  If you somehow think that these are randomly generated picks off the cuff then I would invite you to try your picks on Betfair exchange.  You will generally get better prices there as well and the more liquidity that is floating around on the exchange the more fun for every one.  There is an inverse system of this that I use on the exchange that calculates value in laying favs.  You prob thinking well why dont I share that on the forum as well.  Answer.  There is nothing to share.  When I identify a price out of whack on the exchange my bot will hoover up every last ££ of that until the lay price has moved past my perceived value mark so there is no pie left to share. This is all automated and yields a very small % profit but a profit none the less after commission.  It is based mainly around knowing when the silly money is coming into the market and forgive my greed but I fear some of that money might actually be yours. Sharing tips to back with bookies on the other hand is not a biggie cause there is a limit to what ££ I can put on so there is still some pie left to go around.
    The fact that you display prices in fractions shows me you are not at the sharp punter end of the spectrum. It is one thing I always have my "friends" do when they open a new bookie account.  Make sure to use fractions as this is first sign of a mug. And the hardest part of this game is actually looking like a mug. A lot more difficult than I first thought it would be. Anyways keep up the tips and when we get to the 1000 mark we can compare them. Hopefully some one will calculate today's profit from your tips for comparison because too much trouble for me. Big difference between our tipping systems is as you said , you do them "for a laugh",  I on the other hand do them "for a living" :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 35,568 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    How many pts profit did you make today with the posted tips.

    I made 4pts profit and hit the post with one, caught on line, so close to a 12pt day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 35,568 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    Are all your bets single wins, or ew bets ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    If I made -50, 0 or +50 it is matterless,  only metric is the total profit since I started.  You can check that at your leisure. If you dwell on daily profits/losses you will go from thinking you are 1 day away from being a millionaire after a good day to thinking this thing is a load of  B***s. No sane person could handle that sort of swings.
    I continually monitor every tip I post in my own spread sheet. I only post about half them so never fear that I am giving everything away !!!  It is added to spread sheet along with other data ( Which I don't post and would be meaningless to other folk anyways )  This allows me to monitor  profit/loss on a rolling 250 bet basis.
    Took me 1 1/2 years to get to this point. More actually when I look at failed systems that looked good after few hundred , or even thousand picks which then turned out to be nothing.
    As I said.  Collect all your tips. Or at least post them somewhere.  I use twitter as my primary port of call because time is critical. When we have 1000 each then there is something for comparison.
    Believe me if I thought you were reading tea leaves to get your tips and you had 10000+ showing a sizeable profit then you would have my full attention as how you generate the tips is irrelevant. 
    BTW,  what do you consider an acceptable profit from betting?  Would you think 10% profit is a waste of time or a good target?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    All bets e/w.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 364 ✭✭Sundance_Kid


    How do your results look based on SP?


  • Registered Users Posts: 35,568 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    They say all pros never back ew . Today you invested 10 points if singles, and returned 19ts at posted prices/
    How does your over all data look using single point wins .


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    At betfair SP profits are about quarter of that if taking tipped price.  Of course beating the SP so often will get you unwanted bookie attention so you need to get inventive if you want to remain attached to the bookie teat.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭mayoman1973


    I know one pro who backs e/w only.  This one.  There is a vast difference between the profits for the place vs the win. A factor of 4X actually.  I am not going to point out which is greater because there is only so much spoon feeding you can do. After 1000 bets I will assume folks who are following will have spotted this.  I probably do twice as many e/w doubles as I do e/w singles.  How many pros do you know that entertain doubles?


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