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Property Market 2018

  • 31-12-2017 11:26pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,014 ✭✭✭castle2012


    With supply still very tight. A homeless problem. Rising employment. It sure looks like where set for more large rises. There's not much to suggest otherwise. Any thoughts?


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 10,687 ✭✭✭✭padd b1975


    Hoping for another year of increases and waving goodbye to ten years of negative equity.


  • Registered Users Posts: 101 ✭✭VonBeanie


    After 1 year of RPZ, rental inflation continues. Making it illegal to discriminate against social welfare tenants has not made it any easier for social housing tenants to find accommodation in the private rented sector. Increasing house completions have not been extensive enough to halt house price inflation (especially in the first time buyer end of the market).

    I hope for change in 2018, but expect to be posting the same post this time next year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 214 ✭✭Henbabani


    i guess there is some hope for the younger people, 2017 increase probably would be aroung 8-9%, far from the double digit that everyone spoke about.
    With the number of housing current built or on the way plus the understanding that the brexit will not move a lots of jobs from London to Dublin, we can (i guess) see calm increases, around 4-5% in the new year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 49 Averagevegan


    Investor properties will probably peak and possible fall this year.
    Family 3 bed semi-D another double digit year
    Trophy Houses serious price growth ~20%

    Loads of media headlines about how unsustainable it is. but in reality there will be lots of ex-rentals on the market at low prices for people to buy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 540 ✭✭✭sunnyday1234


    hoping for my rented house to be worth 250k this year and its going on the market right away then. Identical houses in estate currently going for "offers in excess of 230k" so i am hoping to be able to give my tenants notice in Nov 2018 and put on market in Feb 2019

    The old greed is kicking in though as people are saying "hold on to it , it will keep going up". But myself and the wife made a decision a few years back to sell at 250k and thats it


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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,357 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Henbabani wrote: »
    i guess there is some hope for the younger people, 2017 increase probably would be aroung 8-9%, far from the double digit that everyone spoke about.
    With the number of housing current built or on the way plus the understanding that the brexit will not move a lots of jobs from London to Dublin, we can (i guess) see calm increases, around 4-5% in the new year.

    I wouldn't be so cheerful about those double digit growths not happening, those percentages growths are still massive in real terms.


  • Registered Users Posts: 214 ✭✭Henbabani


    kippy wrote: »
    Henbabani wrote: »
    i guess there is some hope for the younger people, 2017 increase probably would be aroung 8-9%, far from the double digit that everyone spoke about.
    With the number of housing current built or on the way plus the understanding that the brexit will not move a lots of jobs from London to Dublin, we can (i guess) see calm increases, around 4-5% in the new year.

    I wouldn't be so cheerful about those double digit growths not happening, those percentages growths are still massive in real terms.
    I know, but as a person i always try to look on the positive side, in the last quarter prices increased by only 1% or a bit more, that's really good and reflected 4-5% yearly increase, which is good also, and maybe with all those articles talking about massive increase in building we may see decrease in the prices.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Henbabani wrote: »
    with all those articles talking about massive increase in building

    What articles?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,825 ✭✭✭LirW


    There is no massive building, the building that's happening is either social housing built by NGOs and family housing to drip-feed the market. In the Dublin area this mainly accommodates a market that's quite high in price for FTBs. Affordable housing is being built in commuter counties and even there the prices are pretty high in comparison.
    Last thing I've seen is the whipping up of a development in Gorey with starting prices of 300k.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,001 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    No matter what happens in 2018 all fingers will point at the landlord. I expect to see more government actions trying to heat off of them by getting the public attention on landlords. Perhaps a super tax on landlord property sales or some such nonsence.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 214 ✭✭Henbabani


    "[font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]According to the MyHome study, asking prices fell back 1 per cent nationally during the final three months of last year and by 0.4 per cent in Dublin. Over the year, prices were up 11.1 per cent in Dublin with the median price standing at €330,000 at the end of the fourth quarter compared with €195,000 outside of the capital."[/font]
    [font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]Even in Dublin the prices are started to fell back.[/font]


  • Registered Users Posts: 49 Averagevegan


    Henbabani wrote: »
    "[font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]According to the MyHome study, asking prices fell back 1 per cent nationally during the final three months of last year and by 0.4 per cent in Dublin. Over the year, prices were up 11.1 per cent in Dublin with the median price standing at €330,000 at the end of the fourth quarter compared with €195,000 outside of the capital."[/font]
    [font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]Even in Dublin the prices are started to fell back.[/font]

    I would guess it's more affordable ex-rental entering the market rather than property becoming cheaper.
    Without more detailed numbers it would be impossible to be sure


  • Registered Users Posts: 214 ✭✭Henbabani


    Headline from daft report for 2017 property market which says everything i guess
    "[font=Georgia, Verdana, Arial]Almost no change in house prices in second half of 2017 - but it doesn't mean a bubble has burst"[/font]

    [font=Georgia, Verdana, Arial]http://www.daft.ie/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Q4-2017-House-price-report.pdf[/font]


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,805 ✭✭✭Rothmans


    Henbabani wrote: »
    Headline from daft report for 2017 property market which says everything i guess
    "[font=Georgia, Verdana, Arial]Almost no change in house prices in second half of 2017 - but it doesn't mean a bubble has burst"[/font]

    [font=Georgia, Verdana, Arial]http://www.daft.ie/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Q4-2017-House-price-report.pdf[/font]

    Slowdown in the market? Or is supply finally starting to meet demand? Or are people finally maxed out as a result of the central bank rules? It'll be an interesting year for sure.

    Edit: I'm somewhat taken aback that prices are starting to falter (however slight) in the regions also, as I wouldn't have thought that the CB rules would have started to curtail things there yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 70 ✭✭davidmarsh


    Every news bulliten now seems to reference a daft report telling us all about the shortage of houses, pending increases in house prices, etc.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,502 ✭✭✭Topgear on Dave


    Henbabani wrote: »
    "[font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]According to the MyHome study, asking prices fell back 1 per cent nationally during the final three months of last year and by 0.4 per cent in Dublin. Over the year, prices were up 11.1 per cent in Dublin with the median price standing at €330,000 at the end of the fourth quarter compared with €195,000 outside of the capital."[/font]
    [font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]Even in Dublin the prices are started to fell back.[/font]

    Interesting if things have stabilised. I see three identical ex-rental semidetached houses for sale in my estate in the last 3 months.

    I wonder if the landlords think prices have topped and its a good time to get out?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,502 ✭✭✭Topgear on Dave


    davidmarsh wrote: »
    Every news bulliten now seems to reference a daft report telling us all about the shortage of houses, pending increases in house prices, etc.

    Hmmmm Id be cynical of the news and watch what else is happening in the world. I remember 10 years ago being told all the same things before the bust.

    "If you dont buy now youll never be able to afford a house"...... Iv friends that got absolutely scorched by shyster estate agents, builders and property pushing media :mad:


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Henbabani wrote: »
    "According to the MyHome study, asking prices fell back 1 per cent nationally during the final three months of last year and by 0.4 per cent in Dublin. Over the year, prices were up 11.1 per cent in Dublin with the median price standing at €330,000 at the end of the fourth quarter compared with €195,000 outside of the capital."

    Even in Dublin the prices are started to fell back.

    According to the chief economist at Davy:
    Asking prices have fallen in the final quarter of each of the last five years before bouncing back in the spring and we see that pattern continuing in 2018

    Personally I don't expect prices to drop in 2018. Demand is still significantly outstripping supply and mortgage approvals are increasing.

    I do expect increases at the upper middle end of the market to be tempered slightly as central bank ceilings are hit.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,703 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Hmmmm Id be cynical of the news and watch what else is happening in the world. I remember 10 years ago being told all the same things before the bust.


    I'd be a bit of a fan of Ronan Lyons, I think he's more concerned about the lack of supply and the overall homeless situation, he has been warning about it for nearly ten years now, along with people such as Tom Lyons etc.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,917 ✭✭✭B00MSTICK


    I wouldn't say demand has fallen or there is adequate supply just yet, I do think we are starting to hit a ceiling on people's affordability though.

    There hasn't been a q4 report on rental prices either, I haven't had reason check on it thankfully but I'm guessing that rental prices wont have grown as much as the previous quarters either, which again I'd attribute to affordability rather than availability.

    Will be interesting to see what happens now that the quota of exemptions that banks can give have been refilled - I know of a few banks who had already handed out all their available exemptions by the middle of last year.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 724 ✭✭✭Askthe EA


    B00MSTICK wrote: »

    Will be interesting to see what happens now that the quota of exemptions that banks can give have been refilled - I know of a few banks who had already handed out all their available exemptions by the middle of last year.

    Thats how they do it, they fill their boots in Q1 and wait for the rest of the year for it to balance out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,015 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    B00MSTICK wrote: »
    I wouldn't say demand has fallen or there is adequate supply just yet, I do think we are starting to hit a ceiling on people's affordability though.

    There hasn't been a q4 report on rental prices either, I haven't had reason check on it thankfully but I'm guessing that rental prices wont have grown as much as the previous quarters either, which again I'd attribute to affordability rather than availability.

    Will be interesting to see what happens now that the quota of exemptions that banks can give have been refilled - I know of a few banks who had already handed out all their available exemptions by the middle of last year.
    I've a rental becoming available in a few weeks so I signed up to a couple of the Facebook groups for Househunters. It's pretty grim. My property is in Clonsilla. On daft/rent there are literally only 3 properties of any type for rent in Clonsilla. On Facebook it's a different level... people offering a bunk in a room of 2 bunk beds in a 2 bed flat (so 8 people in total living in a 2 bed flat with one bathroom).

    When you see this you realise that untasteful as it may sound, there's a lot of scope for rents to go even higher as the poor tenants can always shove another couple of bunk beds in the sitting room or whatever.

    It's totally different to buyers who won't share like this.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,684 ✭✭✭✭Samuel T. Cogley


    One thing danced around in that report but it seems there reading between the lines is exemptions being given out at the start of the year. We'll see the same again this year with the first half showing growth in prices and then the latter half of 2018 doing the same as this year. It's symptomatic of affordability being non-existent within the CB rules; which should not be changed. Prediction for 2018 8.8% growth.

    Incidentally we've seen 63K* go on to our modest house (bought for around 275K in early 2015), so I think some of the 'less desirable' areas near to 'desirable' areas are beginning to see some pressure.

    *Valued for the sake of changing mortgage to a fixed rate. Edit: And lower LTV - worth checking out if you've had your mortgage more than 24 months or so.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,684 ✭✭✭✭Samuel T. Cogley


    murphaph wrote: »
    I've a rental becoming available in a few weeks so I signed up to a couple of the Facebook groups for Househunters. It's pretty grim. My property is in Clonsilla. On daft/rent there are literally only 3 properties of any type for rent in Clonsilla. On Facebook it's a different level... people offering a bunk in a room of 2 bunk beds in a 2 bed flat (so 8 people in total living in a 2 bed flat with one bathroom).

    When you see this you realise that untasteful as it may sound, there's a lot of scope for rents to go even higher as the poor tenants can always shove another couple of bunk beds in the sitting room or whatever.

    It's totally different to buyers who won't share like this.

    Back in 2013 or so I was in London looking at the rents and thinking, that's not too bad then I realised it was a week. I'm seeing the same shenanigans on DAFT now, €845 per week for one particular 1 beds.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,001 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    murphaph wrote: »
    I've a rental becoming available in a few weeks so I signed up to a couple of the Facebook groups for Househunters. It's pretty grim. My property is in Clonsilla. On daft/rent there are literally only 3 properties of any type for rent in Clonsilla. On Facebook it's a different level... people offering a bunk in a room of 2 bunk beds in a 2 bed flat (so 8 people in total living in a 2 bed flat with one bathroom).

    When you see this you realise that untasteful as it may sound, there's a lot of scope for rents to go even higher as the poor tenants can always shove another couple of bunk beds in the sitting room or whatever.

    It's totally different to buyers who won't share like this.

    Back in 2013 or so I was in London looking at the rents and thinking, that's not too bad then I realised it was a week. I'm seeing the same shenanigans on DAFT now, €845 per week for one particular 1 beds.


    Revenue will be loving that. More money for them


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,684 ✭✭✭✭Samuel T. Cogley


    Revenue will be loving that. More money for them

    That's the crux of it in my opinion and why they're not interested in fixing it.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    We definitely have reached a turning point- the ECB halved its QE programme on the 1st of January- and fixed rate interest products from all the main lenders- are trending upwards (slowly).

    The Central Bank rules- are knocking back against secondhand buyers- with the tightening in the exemptions (other than for FTBs)- and the absolute number of landlords- is in freefall (with the exception of housing associations- who are proliferating like mushrooms- thanks to the remarkable tax advantages Revenue have seen fit to grant them).

    Supply is up- possibly to 18,300-18,500 units in 2017- with a target of 22,000 units in 2018 (and the CIF are stating that we simply can't build anymore- as we don't have the labourers and other necessarily people working in the industry. If you talk to the people behind websites such as tradesmen.ie etc- they are all highlighting the absolute constraint in skilled building trades........

    Salaries are rising- slowly- however, so is everything else- so affordability is becoming more and more an issue.........

    Dublin prices- look likely to grow by 7-8% which is still remarkable- and I'd argue wholly unsustainable- whereas regional prices may grow by double this over the next 12 months- possibly by 15-16%

    The downsides- particularly with rising interest rates- for the first time in a decade- are going to hurt Ireland more than any other EU country- and people don't realise this yet...........

    We have a lot of hurt coming down the road- however, it may be another year or two before that realisation finally becomes the mainstream school of thought........


  • Registered Users Posts: 365 ✭✭KellyXX


    We have been and still are looking for a while now and all I can see is that asking prices are far lower than the bids on the properties, in Dublin anyway.

    You see what you think is a good asking price. Then find out that there are bids of 20% above it already. It's the same story every time.

    And even some that have been on the market for many months are holding out for even higher bids. People are happy to leave them on the market and wait til they get the bid they want it would seem, even while sitting on bids of way over asking as it is.


  • Registered Users Posts: 156 ✭✭koheim


    We definitely have reached a turning point- the ECB halved its QE programme on the 1st of January- and fixed rate interest products from all the main lenders- are trending upwards (slowly).

    The Central Bank rules- are knocking back against secondhand buyers- with the tightening in the exemptions (other than for FTBs)- and the absolute number of landlords- is in freefall (with the exception of housing associations- who are proliferating like mushrooms- thanks to the remarkable tax advantages Revenue have seen fit to grant them).

    Supply is up- possibly to 18,300-18,500 units in 2017- with a target of 22,000 units in 2018 (and the CIF are stating that we simply can't build anymore- as we don't have the labourers and other necessarily people working in the industry. If you talk to the people behind websites such as tradesmen.ie etc- they are all highlighting the absolute constraint in skilled building trades........

    Salaries are rising- slowly- however, so is everything else- so affordability is becoming more and more an issue.........

    Dublin prices- look likely to grow by 7-8% which is still remarkable- and I'd argue wholly unsustainable- whereas regional prices may grow by double this over the next 12 months- possibly by 15-16%

    The downsides- particularly with rising interest rates- for the first time in a decade- are going to hurt Ireland more than any other EU country- and people don't realise this yet...........

    We have a lot of hurt coming down the road- however, it may be another year or two before that realisation finally becomes the mainstream school of thought........
    Morgage interest rates in Ireland will not go up, but significally down. Irish Banks are still charging 100% more than the EU average for your interest on morgages (and I really do not understand how they get away with this). Even if ECB put their interest rate up, I would argue that Irish Banks can not follow as they are already making insane profits. The backlash from the tracker morgage scandal will keep them in check and hopefully we will see better interest rates in the next few years. Money is cheap everywhere but Ireland at the moment, an interest rate of 1,8% would make housing a lot cheaper...this would benefit the society as a whole.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,805 ✭✭✭Rothmans


    koheim wrote: »
    Morgage interest rates in Ireland will not go up, but significally down. Irish Banks are still charging 100% more than the EU average for your interest on morgages (and I really do not understand how they get away with this). Even if ECB put their interest rate up, I would argue that Irish Banks can not follow as they are already making insane profits. The backlash from the tracker morgage scandal will keep them in check and hopefully we will see better interest rates in the next few years. Money is cheap everywhere but Ireland at the moment, an interest rate of 1,8% would make housing a lot cheaper...this would benefit the society as a whole.

    I think you might be giving Irish banks a bit too much credit!! :P


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