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Property Market 2018

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13 Researchlab


    castle2012 wrote: »
    With supply still very tight. A homeless problem. Rising employment. It sure looks like where set for more large rises. There's not much to suggest otherwise. Any thoughts?

    Based on reports published by MyHome.ie, Daft.ie, etc. looks like it will continue. With the new lending rules I assume people will buy less and rent more.

    I suggest to take a look at the European Commission report which forecasts Ireland growth rates for the next 3 years. Rising employment is a figure that is actually coming down.


  • Registered Users Posts: 214 ✭✭Henbabani


    castle2012 wrote: »
    With supply still very tight. A homeless problem. Rising employment. It sure looks like where set for more large rises. There's not much to suggest otherwise. Any thoughts?

    Based on reports published by MyHome.ie, Daft.ie, etc. looks like it will continue. With the new lending rules I assume people will buy less and rent more.

    I suggest to take a look at the European Commission report which forecasts Ireland growth rates for the next 3 years. Rising employment is a figure that is actually coming down.
    with more and more unemployed people, how do you see large increases?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13 Researchlab


    Henbabani wrote: »
    with more and more unemployed people, how do you see large increases?

    Not exactly accurate or at least current data and the reports that I mentioned show an improvement of the unemployment rate. These reports do yearly comparison and not monthly.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 9,977 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    I suggest to take a look at the European Commission report which forecasts Ireland growth rates for the next 3 years. Rising employment is a figure that is actually coming down.
    Henbabani wrote: »
    with more and more unemployed people, how do you see large increases?

    I can't speak for his figures, but a falling 'rising employment' figure does not equate to an increase in unemployment.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,684 ✭✭✭✭Samuel T. Cogley


    Might as well get it out of the way for this year. Working class people need to look at working class areas, obviously that are safe etc. Not everyone can live in Donnybrook and going by a thread here at the moment I see Postcode snobbery is as alive as it ever was.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭draiochtanois


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,684 ✭✭✭✭Samuel T. Cogley


    This post has been deleted.

    Already happening in Raheny and surrounds. 321K buys you a mid terrace 3 bed in an 'orange area' and I'm not talking about sectarianism here :pac:

    This deprived area needs a household income of 82,500 to live in! :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,549 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Already happening in Raheny and surrounds. 321K buys you a mid terrace 3 bed in an 'orange area' and I'm not talking about sectarianism here :pac:

    This deprived area needs a household income of 82,500 to live in! :D

    that map thing is nonsense

    apparently my little section on the killiney / dalkey border is either vert or extremely affluent yet parts of the vico road are marginally above average :D

    they must be using tax paid by bono and enya as a marker of income ;)


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Bob24 wrote: »
    Plus while some investors are leaving there are others coming in. And basically they just apply a multiplier to the potential rent to decide how much they are ready to pay for a property. And while rents are two high already, they can still get higher since people have no choice and many still have additional disposable income to squeeze.

    If you look at the last RTB annual report- and how it deals with housing associations etc- the number of private landlords- has been declining for 3-4 years, and the decline is accelerating. It is not the case that there are some investors cashing in their chips- and others taking their places- the number of landlords is falling- and the average number of units per landlord is increasing- aka the investment funds who are buying whole estates or apartment blocks- are increasingly a disproportionate amount of the private property available on the rental market.

    As for people still having disposable income to spend- the stats don't support this either- the portion of income being spent on accommodation is almost at an all-time high- and when interest rates start feeding into the equation- all hell is going to break loose.

    If you think we have a mess on our hands now- just wait until interest rate increases start to manifest on the retail market.............


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    If you look at the last RTB annual report- and how it deals with housing associations etc- the number of private landlords- has been declining for 3-4 years, and the decline is accelerating. It is not the case that there are some investors cashing in their chips- and others taking their places- the number of landlords is falling- and the average number of units per landlord is increasing- aka the investment funds who are buying whole estates or apartment blocks- are increasingly a disproportionate amount of the private property available on the rental market.

    As for people still having disposable income to spend- the stats don't support this either- the portion of income being spent on accommodation is almost at an all-time high- and when interest rates start feeding into the equation- all hell is going to break loose.

    If you think we have a mess on our hands now- just wait until interest rate increases start to manifest on the retail market.............

    On the first point, my own experience viewing apartments in mostly high demand areas of Dublin is that there are still many investors joining (it might be different in other areas and with houses). I can hear them talking to the agents and basically the way the decide if a place is worth their while is easy: they just multiply the annual rental value by a certain number is this is how much they are willing got pay. So as long as rents are rising those people will exercise upwards pressure in selling prices.

    On the second point, if this was not clear I was solely talking about renters having spare disposable income. What I am saying is that landlords still have some margin to squeeze even more out of tenants and thus this will increase the amount they are ready to pay for properties. I do of course agree rents are at a all times high and sucking-up up too much income already, but it doesn’t mean they can’t go higher. Realistically renters still have budget for at least some of the following: going out, savings, holidays, buying non essential entertainement items, etc. I am absolutely not saying it would be a good thing, but if they have no choice they can and will direct more of that money towards rents. Also again it wouldn’t be a good thing at all but there is potential for increasing even more the average number of tenants in many rental units and thus the total rental value of these unit (people sharing room but still paying a fairly high rent each, etc).


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  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    Might as well get it out of the way for this year. Working class people need to look at working class areas, obviously that are safe etc. Not everyone can live in Donnybrook and going by a thread here at the moment I see Postcode snobbery is as alive as it ever was.

    Working class people salary combined = 70k

    70k x 3.5 = 245k

    245k + deposit 25k = 270k

    It's not a case of choosing an area but being left with one or two. Unfortunately most working class aren't even left with an area they can afford.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Zenify wrote: »
    Working class people salary combined = 70k

    70k x 3.5 = 245k

    245k + deposit 25k = 270k

    It's not a case of choosing an area but being left with one or two. Unfortunately most working class aren't even left with an area they can afford.

    Personally I think there is also a social aspect to this being overlooked. It is all fine to say working class people should buy in working class areas and indeed not everyone should think they are entitled to live in Dublin 4. But the other flip of that coin is: what if overtime prices increase so much everywhere in the city that they are no working class areas left? Are we as a society OK with having a capital city which is only suitable for families which are either recipients of social welfare/housing, or on the very top income brackets (i.e. with the working and part of the middle classes being completely removed from the city). We are not there yet in Dublin, but if we just say people should buy where they can afford it and are not mindful of price increases it could happen (and it is already like that in some other European capital cities).


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,549 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Bob24 wrote: »
    Personally I think there is also a social aspect to this being overlooked. It is all fine to say working class people should buy in working class areas and indeed not everyone should think they are entitled to live in Dublin 4. But the other flip of that coin is: what if overtime prices increase so much everywhere in the city that they are no working class areas left? Are we as a society OK with having a capital city which is only suitable for families which are either recipients of social welfare/housing, or on the very top income brackets (i.e. with the working and part of the middle classes being completely removed from the city). We are not there yet in Dublin, but if we just say people should buy where they can afford it and are not mindful of price increases it could happen (and it is already like that in some other European capital cities).

    we are still stuck in the mindset that everyone HAS to buy, they dont, some people cant afford to.

    That said the rental market would have to change to facilitate this.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭draiochtanois


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 365 ✭✭KellyXX


    Bob24 wrote: »
    Personally I think there is also a social aspect to this being overlooked. It is all fine to say working class people should buy in working class areas and indeed not everyone should think they are entitled to live in Dublin 4. But the other flip of that coin is: what if overtime prices increase so much everywhere in the city that they are no working class areas left? Are we as a society OK with having a capital city which is only suitable for families which are either recipients of social welfare/housing, or on the very top income brackets (i.e. with the working and part of the middle classes being completely removed from the city). We are not there yet in Dublin, but if we just say people should buy where they can afford it and are not mindful of price increases it could happen (and it is already like that in some other European capital cities).


    Build proper transport infrastructure and locations where people can live and work in the city will grow exponentially.

    When I worked in London, I commuted 93km each way. It took me 1 hour and 5 minutes door to door. Why? Proper trains.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,098 ✭✭✭Browney7


    KellyXX wrote: »
    Build proper transport infrastructure and locations where people can live and work in the city will grow exponentially.

    When I worked in London, I commuted 93km each way. It took me 1 hour and 5 minutes door to door. Why? Proper trains.

    What is this sorcery? Someone with ideas of improving infrastructure and strategic planning? Never going to happen in Ireland - we'll vote for the guys who can give us a fiver extra a week


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,670 ✭✭✭quadrifoglio verde


    Bob24 wrote: »
    Personally I think there is also a social aspect to this being overlooked. It is all fine to say working class people should buy in working class areas and indeed not everyone should think they are entitled to live in Dublin 4. But the other flip of that coin is: what if overtime prices increase so much everywhere in the city that they are no working class areas left? Are we as a society OK with having a capital city which is only suitable for families which are either recipients of social welfare/housing, or on the very top income brackets (i.e. with the working and part of the middle classes being completely removed from the city). We are not there yet in Dublin, but if we just say people should buy where they can afford it and are not mindful of price increases it could happen (and it is already like that in some other European capital cities).

    Social housing open to all. There's family's who can't afford to buy in Dublin where they work, yet aren't able to apply for social housing in Dublin because they earn too much. At the same time you've people who have never worked and never will work entitled to it. That is wrong.

    You pay a set percentage of your income. Whether you're on 20k or 200k.
    You build a community that isn't full of the low waged mixed with the dregs of society, but one that's quite mixed with the butcher Baker and candlestick maker living side by side. You don't have a ghetto. You don't have unemployment blackspots.

    The housing can never be bought. You've secure tenancy until you die and you pay the same percentage throughout your life. However as your needs change so too does the housing. So while you're young and have two kids you're in a 3 bedroom apartment. When your kids are over 23, you're in a 1 bed apartment that is more suitable for your needs.

    I'm a capitalist at heart but even I would support the above. It's certainly a better system than what's there at the moment and as anyone would be entitled to take advantage, it's fair and equitable.
    Social housing shouldn't just be for the poor. It should be open to all citizens of the country


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,549 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Social housing open to all. There's family's who can't afford to buy in Dublin where they work, yet aren't able to apply for social housing in Dublin because they earn too much. At the same time you've people who have never worked and never will work entitled to it. That is wrong.

    You pay a set percentage of your income. Whether you're on 20k or 200k.
    You build a community that isn't full of the low waged mixed with the dregs of society, but one that's quite mixed with the butcher Baker and candlestick maker living side by side. You don't have a ghetto. You don't have unemployment blackspots.

    The housing can never be bought. You've secure tenancy until you die and you pay the same percentage throughout your life. However as your needs change so too does the housing. So while you're young and have two kids you're in a 3 bedroom apartment. When your kids are over 23, you're in a 1 bed apartment that is more suitable for your needs.

    I'm a capitalist at heart but even I would support the above. It's certainly a better system than what's there at the moment and as anyone would be entitled to take advantage, it's fair and equitable.
    Social housing shouldn't just be for the poor. It should be open to all citizens of the country

    does a functioning version of this exist anywhere?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,454 ✭✭✭mloc123


    The first handful of 'new' properties are now advertised in the areas I track (north Kildare). Asking prices up around 5-6% on what they were for the 4th quarter of 2017, interesting to see how quickly the move. Similar house were sale agreed within 2-3 weeks in 2017.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Cyrus wrote: »
    we are still stuck in the mindset that everyone HAS to buy, they dont, some people cant afford to.

    That said the rental market would have to change to facilitate this.

    It is not everyone has to buy. The question more are we ok with te lower middle-class being pushed away from the city (whether they are renting or buying, but currently rising a family in rented accommodation isn’t exactly great in ireland). I personally don’t think it’s a good thing for social balance and clearly things like Brexit and Trump votes have a lot to do with that.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,549 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Bob24 wrote: »
    It is not everyone has to buy. The question more are we ok with te lower middle-class being pushed away from the city (whether they are renting or buying, but currently rising a family in rented accommodation isn’t exactly great in ireland. I personally don’t think it’s a good thing for social balance and clearly things like Brexit and Trump votes have a lot to do with that.

    the city just moves out to accommodate them, like it has in London, the infastructure will have to catch up.

    plenty of the people i work with have bought in kildare / meath and commute into ballsbridge because thats what makes the best sense for them financially and house wise.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Yeah I'm perfectly ok with that.
    I don't think it's all that different today.
    There are houses and cars I won't ever buy.

    I think people need to be disabused of the fairytale notions.

    Spacial segregation has nothing to do with people buying luxury cars.

    Having more wealthier neighbourhoods and bigger houses than others is obvious as will always exist, that’s fine. But if a class of people is completely expelled from a whole city, then you break social cohesion and start having issues.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Cyrus wrote: »
    the city just moves out to accommodate them, like it has in London, the infastructure will have to catch up.

    plenty of the people i work with have bought in kildare / meath and commute into ballsbridge because thats what makes the best sense for them financially and house wise.

    And the more you move away from the city the more those suburbs vote for the likes of Brexit.

    The problem is if different types of people gets more and more geographically segregated from each other they understand each other's point of view less and less and start building different societies within the same country which are drifting further and further appart. Implications on social cohesion can be very bad in the long term.

    Incidentally you also end up with the hard task of explaining to low/middle earners things like why they need to have a 90 minutes commute in the morning while others who are not working have a free home provided right in the city partly paid by the tax money of the commuter (again Dublin is not there yet but other European capitals are). I am not ostracising anyone here or telling what is right or wrong, but those are real questions which can break a society.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Bob24 wrote:
    On the second point, if this was not clear I was solely talking about renters having spare disposable income. What I am saying is that landlords still have some margin to squeeze even more out of tenants and thus this will increase the amount they are ready to pay for properties. I do of course agree rents are at a all times high and sucking-up up too much income already, but it doesn’t mean they can’t go higher. Realistically renters still have budget for at least some of the following: going out, savings, holidays, buying non essential entertainement items, etc. I am absolutely not saying it would be a good thing,

    I think this has more to do with people becoming disillusioned and voting away from traditional voters. Being squeezed at every available opportunity.

    I would bet any money that the lower middle class had better quality of life during the recession than they have now in the so called recovery.
    It's inevitable that they would vote against a system that drains them


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Social housing open to all. There's family's who can't afford to buy in Dublin where they work, yet aren't able to apply for social housing in Dublin because they earn too much. At the same time you've people who have never worked and never will work entitled to it. That is wrong.

    You pay a set percentage of your income. Whether you're on 20k or 200k.
    You build a community that isn't full of the low waged mixed with the dregs of society, but one that's quite mixed with the butcher Baker and candlestick maker living side by side. You don't have a ghetto. You don't have unemployment blackspots.

    The housing can never be bought. You've secure tenancy until you die and you pay the same percentage throughout your life. However as your needs change so too does the housing. So while you're young and have two kids you're in a 3 bedroom apartment. When your kids are over 23, you're in a 1 bed apartment that is more suitable for your needs.

    I'm a capitalist at heart but even I would support the above. It's certainly a better system than what's there at the moment and as anyone would be entitled to take advantage, it's fair and equitable.
    Social housing shouldn't just be for the poor. It should be open to all citizens of the country

    The above would be a way to make it more fair to middle earners indeed ... but having said that to keep it working and make sure than anyone who qualifies can entitle to it would probably incure a very high cost.

    I think they have something like that in Sweden?


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    KellyXX wrote: »
    Build proper transport infrastructure and locations where people can live and work in the city will grow exponentially.

    When I worked in London, I commuted 93km each way. It took me 1 hour and 5 minutes door to door. Why? Proper trains.

    People moving to commuter towns has been happening for a while now, I expect that trend will continue. I don't expect public transport to catch up any time soon.

    In the mean time, I expect 2018 will see property prices in Dublin to continue to rise only constrained by the central bank lending rules.


  • Registered Users Posts: 834 ✭✭✭GGTrek


    Bob24 wrote: »
    Social housing open to all. There's family's who can't afford to buy in Dublin where they work, yet aren't able to apply for social housing in Dublin because they earn too much. At the same time you've people who have never worked and never will work entitled to it. That is wrong.

    You pay a set percentage of your income. Whether you're on 20k or 200k.
    You build a community that isn't full of the low waged mixed with the dregs of society, but one that's quite mixed with the butcher Baker and candlestick maker living side by side. You don't have a ghetto. You don't have unemployment blackspots.

    The housing can never be bought. You've secure tenancy until you die and you pay the same percentage throughout your life. However as your needs change so too does the housing. So while you're young and have two kids you're in a 3 bedroom apartment. When your kids are over 23, you're in a 1 bed apartment that is more suitable for your needs.

    I'm a capitalist at heart but even I would support the above. It's certainly a better system than what's there at the moment and as anyone would be entitled to take advantage, it's fair and equitable.
    Social housing shouldn't just be for the poor. It should be open to all citizens of the country

    The above would be a way to make it more fair to middle earners indeed ... but having said that to keep it working and make sure than anyone who qualifies can entitle to it would probably incure a very high cost.

    I think they have something like that in Sweden?
    Sure they do, it is really working well :D:D:D
    https://www.thelocal.se/20150821/how-to-navigate-swedens-crazy-rental-market
    https://www.thelocal.se/20170523/european-commission-urges-sweden-to-tackle-housing-crisis
    And guess what Assar Lindbeck the Economist who said the famous quote about rent control: “In many cases rent control appears to be the most efficient technique presently known to destroy a city—except for bombing.”  is Swedish (still alive), because he had first hand experience of bad welfare policies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assar_Lindbeck
    Sweden is a very shining example of socialist policies gone wrong on an enormous range of policies! To stay on topic I just pointed out only their housing policy. It is a wet dream for the socialists and communists of Ireland, but Sweden after decades with these policies still ended up with a housing crisis, because as all good commies and good socialists their ideological mental barriers obstruct the fact that no one will rent and no one will build if you regulate prices! It is economics 101!


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    KellyXX wrote: »
    Build proper transport infrastructure and locations where people can live and work in the city will grow exponentially.

    When I worked in London, I commuted 93km each way. It took me 1 hour and 5 minutes door to door. Why? Proper trains.

    For sure better public transport is always a good thing (but that also implies different urbanism with less houses and more apartments so that population density is sufficient to justify all these trains/metro/light rail routes, I personally have no problem with that but I'd say many in Ireland would choose a small back garden over a nearby rail station).

    But having said that facilitating the exile is not helping with the social cohesion issues I was mentioning.


  • Registered Users Posts: 365 ✭✭KellyXX


    Bob24 wrote: »
    For sure better public transport is always a good thing (but that also implies different urbanism with less houses and more apartments so that population density is sufficient to justify all these trains/metro/light rail routes, I personally have no problem with that but I'd say many in Ireland would choose a small back garden over a nearby rail station).

    But having said that facilitating the exile is not helping with the social cohesion issues I was mentioning.


    I was renting a 3 bed house with a back garden while commuting to Liverpool street in certain London over 90km I'm in an hour. The trains ram every 10 minutes and the stations had huge car parks so people could come from Mike's around and commute to London.

    Of course you had those who wanted to live in apartment in the city too and pay more, but a lot of people preferred to live outside London. Cheaper for one thing.

    One of the companies I worked for even had a policy that everyone worked from home and each team came into the office one day a week only. That allowed them to have a smaller office and must have done wonders for the traffic and demand on city properties. In that please they were people working as far away as Manchester and coming in for the one day a week in London.

    The problem in Ireland is that we don't think about infrastructure being part of the housing cross when it is a huge part of it.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    KellyXX wrote: »
    I was renting a 3 bed house with a back garden while commuting to Liverpool street in certain London over 90km I'm in an hour. The trains ram every 10 minutes and the stations had huge car parks so people could come from Mike's around and commute to London.

    Of course you had those who wanted to live in apartment in the city too and pay more, but a lot of people preferred to live outside London. Cheaper for one thing.

    One of the companies I worked for even had a policy that everyone worked from home and each team came into the office one day a week only. That allowed them to have a smaller office and must have done wonders for the traffic and demand on city properties. In that please they were people working as far away as Manchester and coming in for the one day a week in London.

    The problem in Ireland is that we don't think about infrastructure being part of the housing cross when it is a huge part of it.

    Driving to a station, then getting a train with an hour commute is acceptable but not great (and actually many in Dublin would have a shorted commute). A good public transport network wouldn't imply people using their car to reach that network (btw in spite of our subpar network I've been working/commuting in Dublin for over 10 years and never needed a car).

    But keep in mind that even with that you had it pretty good and you were not part fo those who were the most cast away from the city. Living close to a well connected station obviously involves a significant premium in property/rental cost that not everyone an afford, and from what I have heard monthly train passes from distant suburbs are not exactly cheap in London (I just checked Bracknell as this is a place I know and a monthly pass to London including use of underground seems to be 428 pounds, which comes on top of another few 100s of cost of ownership/maintenance/parking for the car ... keeping in mind we are talking about low to low/medium earners that is *a lot* of money).

    And more importantly I will say it again, it is absolutely not just a problem of money and infrastructure, but very much so a question of social cohesion. Both the US and the UK have shown that removing lower/middle classes from large cities and in a way disconnecting them from the wealth and economic activity brought to these cities by globalisation is fragmenting countries and causing strong rejection for current social models.


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