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All Weather Winter Warmer

  • 29-11-2018 9:04pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭


    As I have zero interest in the jumping game thought I would start a thread for my bets on the AW racing over the winter to keep myself entertained. Majority of bets will be at Dundalk and Southwell, some bets at other UK AW tracks.

    Intend to post thoughts on day of race once I have got on myself - hopefully be around midday but could be later depending on other commitments. Zero guarantees of profit and if you do choose to follow then good luck to you, I'm not a pro but would *hope* to be making >5% ROI by end of thread (again no guarantees).

    Will be providing reasoning for all bets, betting on a scale of 1pt to 3pts (incl. half fractions) and updating running totals/figures every Saturday.

    Plan to do this until the flat season starts again next year. Kicking off tomorrow.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,340 ✭✭✭sdoc13


    Intend to post thoughts on day of race once I have got on myself - hopefully be around midday but could be later depending on other commitments. Zero guarantees of profit and if you do choose to follow then good luck to you, I'm not a pro but would *hope* to be making >5% ROI by end of thread (again no guarantees).

    Will be providing reasoning for all bets, betting on a scale of 1pt to 3pts (incl. half fractions) and updating running totals/figures every Saturday.

    Plan to do this until the flat season starts again next year. Kicking off tomorrow.


    Best of luck with it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,750 ✭✭✭redzerdrog


    As I have zero interest in the jumping game thought I would start a thread for my bets on the AW racing over the winter to keep myself entertained. Majority of bets will be at Dundalk and Southwell, some bets at other UK AW tracks.

    Intend to post thoughts on day of race once I have got on myself - hopefully be around midday but could be later depending on other commitments. Zero guarantees of profit and if you do choose to follow then good luck to you, I'm not a pro but would *hope* to be making >5% ROI by end of thread (again no guarantees).

    Will be providing reasoning for all bets, betting on a scale of 1pt to 3pts (incl. half fractions) and updating running totals/figures every Saturday.

    Plan to do this until the flat season starts again next year. Kicking off tomorrow.

    Fir all your critisms if poor goat I am glad you are going to try back it up yourself. Will you be giving us your thoughts regarding implied edge as well ;-)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    redzerdrog wrote: »
    Fir all your critisms if poor goat I am glad you are going to try back it up yourself. Will you be giving us your thoughts regarding implied edge as well ;-)
    Nothing to prove but thanks for the comment


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,949 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Good man MH, Never mind that jumps shite :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    Cant beat a bit of Fundalk.
    Best of luck MH.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,359 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Interested to know what's your angle on picking Southwell. Do you think the unique surface and kick back from front runners presents an opportunity that the market hasn't fully priced in?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    3.15 Southwell: Mime Dance (12/1 generally) 1pt EW
    By Notnowcato who gets fair share of fibresand winners and is still unexposed on this surface having run here once (finishing close up second on penultimate start). Inconsistent and quirky but capable of winning off this mark. Blinkers + eyeshield reapplied and should be going close if in the mood.

    Very busy this AM Dundalk bets coming later.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Interested to know what's your angle on picking Southwell. Do you think the unique surface and kick back from front runners presents an opportunity that the market hasn't fully priced in?


    The unique surface is the key factor IMO, is a very specific test and favors horses with certain physical characteristics, lots of examples of otherwise mediocre animals hitting a rich vein of form when switched on to the fibresand, I would put a premium on anything with proven course form or US bred dirt pedigrees. Running style also more important than it would be at other tracks, very hard to make up ground there from off the pace and added disadvantage of getting a face full of sand as you mention.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    First one at Dundalk (3 to follow)

    6.00 Dundalk: Paddytheirishman (11/1 365, BV, Ladbrokes) 2pts Win
    Last three runs all respectable efforts at Dundalk, first two runs over 10f and then surprisingly had enough pace to run well over a 7f last time and would've been placed at least if not meeting bit of trouble in running in final furlong. Yet to win a race and not got too many gears but looks genuine enough. Mile round here could be the ideal trip based on evidence of those runs. Think it's vital that is allowed to make a prolonged challenge down the straight as does not do anything too quickly but should be running them down late on if all goes to plan. Fair few dodgepots in opposition and had this around the 7/1 mark.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    8.00 Dundalk: Lilys Prince (25/1 Paddy, BV, Boyles) 1pt EW
    Bit of a risky one as looks to have become a bit of a pig these days and struggles to puts its head in front. Nevertheless, think that 6f round Dundalk are close to optimal conditions. Killian Leonard up for the first time and he is quite good on unwilling horses IMO so potential for some improvement there, few front runners in the line up so should go a good pace which will also certainly help. Not totally in love with the win part of the bet but over 6/1 to place seemed decent value and worth a small go.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Bit late sorry

    8.30 Dundalk: Archers Up (28/1 Paddy - paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
    Finished midfield in big field Leopardstown handicap last time in race that looked to suit those held up probably not a bad effort on ground that was likely a tad too soft. Had been decent nick over hurdles prior to that and is 2/2 at Dundalk (albeit a claimer and a maiden for previous trainer), very tough race but could yet be underrated off 72 round here.

    9.00 Dundalk: Effernock Fizz (25/1 Paddy - paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW
    Been in notebook since getting a very soft ride in claimer behind Dubai Rainbow few starts back, had no hope whatsoever on most recent run when a mile out of the handicap but went off to fast and hugged the rail just to make sure. Only other run in handicap was reasonably promising when finishing 4th from the widest draw. In off its correct mark of 52 now and one of a few 3yos in line up that get a weight allowance and also gets jockeys 7lb claim, if she's got any semblance of ability then should really be getting involved. Small trainer but shrewd enough and knows how to get wins out of her horses, bit of money looks promising too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,083 ✭✭✭Chesty08


    First one at Dundalk (3 to follow)

    6.00 Dundalk: Paddytheirishman (11/1 365, BV, Ladbrokes) 2pts Win
    Last three runs all respectable efforts at Dundalk, first two runs over 10f and then surprisingly had enough pace to run well over a 7f last time and would've been placed at least if not meeting bit of trouble in running in final furlong. Yet to win a race and not got too many gears but looks genuine enough. Mile round here could be the ideal trip based on evidence of those runs. Think it's vital that is allowed to make a prolonged challenge down the straight as does not do anything too quickly but should be running them down late on if all goes to plan. Fair few dodgepots in opposition and had this around the 7/1 mark.


    Agree with this one. Expecting a big run


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Total sh1te yesterday, nothing could land a blow and few that went off way bigger on exchange, we go on.

    Was going to leave Wolves today but one now drifted out to point where cannot leave it...

    7:45 Wolverhampton - Original Choice (4/1 Generally) 1pt Win
    Been generally running well in some pretty good turf handicaps all year and nothing wrong with close 3rd on AW at Lingfield last time out. Was sent off a well backed 5/4 fav there and won on only other start on AW (7f at Wolverhampton). Been a lot of money about for Maratha which has resulted in my selection drifting out during day - cannot really see case for Maratha and had Original Choice priced up closer to its opening price at around 3/1 or therebouts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭DubInTheWest


    Todays horse won well done. Been a long time since a winner tipped in the other thread so nice one. Miss the goats bets.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    [quote="DubInTheWest;108772967 Miss the goats bets.[/quote]

    Despite him not having another bet until Dec 26th he’s punting like a lunatic on this forum daily ever since that statement so you can follow his delusions there

    https://www.talkinghorses.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?16994-What-are-you-backing-Today/page950


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 484 ✭✭ANDREWMUFC


    A compulsive gambler perhaps?!?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Original Choice gets things off the mark.

    Staked 12.00
    Returned 5.00
    P/L -7.00
    ROI -58.33%


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Was intending to back one at Wolves again today but early price boys have destroyed it so leaving it now.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    One today:
    2:20 Lingfield: Corinthia Knight (3/1 Generally) 1pt Win
    Looked to go a bit too fast in front when being run down over 6f in listed race at Lingfield last time after hitting a low of evens in running. That run came off back of a break so may not have been 100%, now drops back in trip (just as effective at 5f) and back into handicap company today. Does not need to lead to win but not a heap of pace in the race today so should be able to get prominent. Significant class edge over the rest of the field and the only 3yo in the line up, may still be improving but probably does not need to in order to win.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    God knows how that went off at 9/2


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Well in!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    Nice 1 MH


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Ta, not quite in profit though. Should be one tomorrow hopefully.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,131 ✭✭✭akelly02


    Ta, not quite in profit though. Should be one tomorrow hopefully.

    Draw put me off . Fair play


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Early start today and busy this morning so getting this up now before I forget:

    11:30 Lingfield: Wilson (25/1 Paddy/Ladbrokes paying 1234 1/5) 1pt EW
    Easy to put a line through most recent run when caught a few horses wide for most of the race and petrol tank quickly emptied at the business end. Had previously taken a step in the right direction when finishing 4th at Kempton and was some money around for it on both of those two runs. Not had too many opportunities for current yard and was rated as high as 83 for Cumani, runs off 64 today and should be getting competitive off that sort of mark if not a total corpse. Has shown enough pace to suggest that drop to 7f should not be a problem and does have the rail draw to help so expect them to try and make all again, 25/1 to win and 5/1 to finish in first 4 looked very big to me.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,908 ✭✭✭Cherry_Cola


    BOOM! Nice one!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    Absolute belter MH


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Ta. Might quit now tbh.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    Lock thread :pac:


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    3 winners on the trot. No pressure for the next one :pac:


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