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Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 421 ✭✭Folkstonian



    As above. There has been no formal request to reject.

    May is probably correct that the timing is not right. The civil service on Whitehall has no resilience to deal with Scottish separation currently. It’s simply not practical because all hands are already on deck because of Brexit.


  • Registered Users Posts: 241 ✭✭1st dalkey dalkey


    "do consider what effect the centralising of the competences will have on Ireland in the future,"

    Any centralising of competences there may be will be by agreement.

    By becoming part of the single market we agree to protect it at our borders.

    We are, of course, free to leave as the UK has done, if we find that we no longer wish to be a part of it. But there are consequences to leaving.

    The choices are ours and the responsibility for their consequences also ours. We weigh it up and freely choose.

    I hope the UK is as happy to accept their responsibility for their choices.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,357 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    As above. There has been no formal request to reject.

    May is probably correct that the timing is not right. The civil service on Whitehall has no resilience to deal with Scottish separation currently. It’s simply not practical because all hands are already on deck because of Brexit.

    As it stands, 60% would vote to stay in the UK. However, that percentage would change significantly depending on the type of Brexit Britain ends up with.


  • Registered Users Posts: 431 ✭✭ThePanjandrum


    Strazdas wrote: »
    Which is extremely unusual in fact. Constitutional experts have suggested the individual nations of the UK should have had a veto over a mere advisory referendum result : these are actual countries with their own parliaments, not mere 'regions' of the UK like Lancashire or Cornwall or whatever.

    Nevertheless, the United Kingdom is neither a unitary state, a federation or a confederation. Can you name another country like the UK where constituent countries are given a power of Veto.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,357 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    As above. There has been no formal request to reject.

    May is probably correct that the timing is not right. The civil service on Whitehall has no resilience to deal with Scottish separation currently. It’s simply not practical because all hands are already on deck because of Brexit.

    As it stands, 60% would vote to stay in the UK. However, that percentage would change significantly depending on the type of Brexit Britain ends up with.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,357 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Nevertheless, the United Kingdom is neither a unitary state, a federation or a confederation. Can you name another country like the UK where constituent countries are given a power of Veto.

    Can you name a country like the UK?


  • Registered Users Posts: 431 ✭✭ThePanjandrum


    Any centralising of competences there may be will be by agreement.

    That's not what the document is saying. It doesn't mention agreement at all, it says that the division of competences will move in a direction where they become the exclusive competence of the EU.


  • Registered Users Posts: 431 ✭✭ThePanjandrum


    Can you name a country like the UK?

    I can't think of one with the same relationship between the countries comprising the country. Can you?


  • Registered Users Posts: 22,125 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    VinLieger wrote: »
    Pff you cant ask people if theyve changed their minds after only three years.

    That would be like having two general elections in less than 3 years which would be madness.... Such a thing would never happen.

    They never gave informed consent to this kind of a brexit.

    Democracy without transparency is meamingless and none of the nredit campaigners campaigned on the basis of a hard brexit or a no deal scenario


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,357 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    I can't think of one with the same relationship between the countries comprising the country. Can you?

    Nope. It's unique. So your question is unanswerable.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,357 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Akrasia wrote: »
    They never gave informed consent to this kind of a brexit.

    Democracy without transparency is meamingless and none of the nredit campaigners campaigned on the basis of a hard brexit or a no deal scenario

    The only people who knew what they were voting for were people who voted Remain. But the will of the people must be respected.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,117 ✭✭✭✭Junkyard Tom


    Can you name another country like the UK where constituent countries are given a power of Veto.

    The EU?


  • Registered Users Posts: 431 ✭✭ThePanjandrum


    The EU?

    The EU is not a country.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,117 ✭✭✭✭Junkyard Tom


    The EU is not a country.

    Neither is the UK.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Nevertheless, the United Kingdom is neither a unitary state, a federation or a confederation. Can you name another country like the UK where constituent countries are given a power of Veto.

    Belgium : it couldn't leave the EU without both Flanders and Wallonia approving the exit.

    Flanders is the bigger of the two. Using the Brexiteer example, Wallonia would have to accept "the will of the Flemish people" if Flanders voted to leave. But Belgium has a constitution which prevents this.......unlike the UK.


  • Registered Users Posts: 25,907 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Nevertheless, the United Kingdom is neither a unitary state, a federation or a confederation. Can you name another country like the UK where constituent countries are given a power of Veto.
    Oh gosh, yes. The US Constitution cannot be amended without the approval of threee-fourths of the state legislatures. The Australian constitution cannot be amended without the approval of a majority of the electorate nationally and a majority of the electorate in a majority of the states. Amendments to the Canadian constitution require approval from the legislatures of two-thirds of the provinces.

    If the countries that make up the UK were treated in the same was as the states of the US, the provinces of Canada or the states of Australia, the application of any of these rules would have meant that the Brexit referendum would have been lost.

    And that's just in the Anglosphere. I'm sure if you broaden your search to look at other states made up of constituent countries, or where power is dispersed to different countries or regions within the state, you'll find many similar arrangements.


  • Registered Users Posts: 803 ✭✭✭woohoo!!!


    Fox may have been exaggerating on the trade opportunities outside of the EU, think Argentina for one.

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1094870010957316096.html

    It seems like May has thrown her lot in with ERG and is just stringing things out to get to no deal day. Because Tory unity is the most important thing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    downcow wrote: »
    I have crossed many times between England and France. When I get the ferry Dover Calais, is this what you guys are referring to as a hard border?
    We are talking about a border between a country in the Single Market (Ireland) and a country outside (UKoGBaNI). The reason this is a change from today's situation is because the UK is inside the Single Market now, so UK-France is a border between two Single market countries.

    By definition, there are no customs on a border between SM countries, that's why it is called a single market, so no, that is not an example of a hard border.

    I would draw a diagram to try to make this simple enough for you, but my crayon broke.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    downcow wrote: »
    and you know the irony - we're still ok in NI - even in your scenario.


    You are a sight better off than the poor feckers on the "Mainland". The irony is that the DUP are hurting their own voters chasing a mirage of being more British than Jeremy Corbyn.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    downcow wrote: »
    I honestly believe it is either soften the backstop or no deal.
    We’ll revisit this in due course and one of us will be 100% wrong


    No, lots of us agree that No Deal is one possible outcome in the short term.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    tuxy wrote: »
    Her plan has to be to run down the clock and hope the MPs panic and back her deal. I really can't see any other logic behind it, very dangerous game to play.

    I have seen some talk on Twitter that May is coming around to thinking No Deal is OK. The suggestion is that she has no plan or strategy, is making it up as she goes and that No Deal at least leaves her in #10 until the next election.

    Anything else requires her to

    a) make a difficult decision to U turn

    and

    b) bring Parliament with her.

    No Deal just needs her to run down the clock and frustrate Parliament.


  • Registered Users Posts: 25,907 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    downcow wrote: »
    I have never crossed between ROI and France but I have crossed many times between England and France. When I get the ferry Dover Calais, is this what you guys are referring to as a hard border?
    No. The UK/FRA border is slightly harder than the UK/IRL border currently is because the UK and FRA are not in a Common Travel Area, while the UK and IRL are.

    But the UK and FRA are in a Customs Union and they are in a Single Market. Post-Brextit, the default is that UK and IRL will not be. This will lead to a range of border controls that currently don't apply between UK and FRA - unless the UK enters into agreements which have the effect of avoiding those border controls.
    downcow wrote: »
    I am guessing that it is the same between Ireland and France and this is where my confusion is. It seems you are happy to have checks as you head into France but not as you head into the UK. Is this correct or am I misreading the situation?
    You're misreading the situation, in that you're confusing migration checks and trade/commerce/fiscal controls. Currently, there are migration checks between Ireland and France, because Ireland and France are not in a Common Travel Area. There are no or minimal migration checks between Ireland and the UK, because of the Common Travel Area.

    The UK does not propose to exit the Common Travel Area, so there is no question of migration controls at the UK/IRL border. But it does propose to exit the Customs Union and the Single Market, which will - unless further arrangements are made - result in the imposition of trade/commerce/fiscal controls between the UK and IRL which do not apply between IRL and FRA (or, currently, between UK and FRA).


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    The UK does not propose to exit the Common Travel Area, so there is no question of migration controls at the UK/IRL border.

    Well, now, I think that is a bit too optimistic.

    The CTA is exactly the kind of agreement that downcow likes - a gentleman's agreement honoured by both sides as long as they feel like it, which the UK could destroy at the stroke of a pen without agreement from anyone else.

    If a No Deal Brexit actually happens, and some May-type Home Secretary gets the job of keeping EU citizens out, the CTA is going to stand out as a problem.


  • Registered Users Posts: 25,907 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    I have seen some talk on Twitter that May is coming around to thinking No Deal is OK. The suggestion is that she has no plan or strategy, is making it up as she goes and that No Deal at least leaves her in #10 until the next election.

    Anything else requires her to

    a) make a difficult decision to U turn

    and

    b) bring Parliament with her.

    No Deal just needs her to run down the clock and frustrate Parliament.
    It's not that simple. A no-deal outcome would horrify most of her party. I think in that situation the only way should could remain as party leader "until the next election" would be to call the election immediately after Brexit day.

    May has repeatedly assured those of her party who think a no-deal Brexit unconscionable - the great majority - that she will not lead the UK into a no-deal Brexit. If she does, the party will be furious, both because they know this to be catastrophically bad for the UK and because they will know that she has consigned them to a crushing electoral defeat. If nothing else, damage limitation will require the party to dump its leader (if she doesn't walk of her own accord) and install a new leader who is (a) not so obviously responsible for the metaf*cking pile of steaming metaf*ck in which the country has been dropped, and (b) can give an impression of at least average competence for the harm minimisation task which must now urgently follow.

    Or, to put it another way, if May can make such a catastrophic catastrophe of the Withdrawal Agreement negotiations, what do you think she is capable of doing to the much more important Future Relationship Agreement negotiations which must immediately follow?

    It's true that she can't be challenged in the party through a confidence vote until next December. But the Tory party has other ways of getting leaders to resign - remember the "men in grey suits"? They'll be calling around to No. 10.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    Of course; it was obvious that this was always going to be a big plank of the UK's "strategy" - given that they had precious little else to work with. Ireland and the rest of the EU saw it coming a mile away and have prepared accordingly.

    The UK is still hoping it will work. After all, why shouldn't a union of 27 countries undermine the integrity of its single market to accomodate a delinquent country where parliament refuses to support the government and doesn't know what it wants?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    external borders are within the competence of a United Kingdom which has left the EU but are they within the competence of the Republic of Ireland. You Prime Minister has at the very least been implying that it is not, the involvement of the EU and the fact that this is within the Withdrawal Agreement also says that it is not, so although this was taken to be a joint competence, it now appears to have become an exclusive competence of the EU.
    You just jumped the shark there. It says "Administrations NORTH and SOUTH". This is Strand 2. NORTH/SOUTH relationships. So the UK does not come into it. And of course the entire strand is built on the premise of the time. That the border remains as it was when the agreement was made. So that all those North/South competencies can be merged and the so-operation can continue. And if you had looked at the slideshow that the EU produced yesterday to outline the WA, you'd have seen mention of all those areas where co-operation had developed over the last 20 years and where all-island economies have been encouraged and flourished.

    And just in case you missed it, the entire issue is the effect a brexit of any kind would have on NI. But especially a hard brexit. NI is hugely dependant on Ireland for its electricity, gas, exports (either for processing, to the EU and the UK). Among many other things. There are as many commercial crossings of the border every year as through Dover.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,568 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    I have seen some talk on Twitter that May is coming around to thinking No Deal is OK. The suggestion is that she has no plan or strategy, is making it up as she goes and that No Deal at least leaves her in #10 until the next election.

    Anything else requires her to

    a) make a difficult decision to U turn

    and

    b) bring Parliament with her.

    No Deal just needs her to run down the clock and frustrate Parliament.


    She could quite easily bring parliament with her, we've known for a long time that there's a majority in the HOC against no deal. its just split between both parties but since both May and Corbyn are putting party before country, neither one is going to meaningfully reach across the aisle to save their country as it would mean May losing number 10 and splitting the tory party and then likely corbyn losing the leadership as well as making the next election an even fight instead of a labour landslide.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,442 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    This seems to be at least one source of the rumour that TM is actively thinking of No Deal.
    Why A No-Deal Brexit Is Now Theresa May's Fallback Plan To Save Her Party – And Herself
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-no-deal-brexit-fallback-plan_uk_5c617348e4b0910c63f30fc8?guccounter=1

    Basically it comes down to party politics. The speed at which she refused to consider Labour plans, after she asked for a cooperation across the house, shows that it is party first and foremost.

    They have convinced themselves that a No Deal isn't really that bad. And with that mindset, ie when there appears to be no downside to your position, why would you change it? They have wrapped themselves in the idea of protecting the union, and thus any damage is acceptable in that ideal.

    Even when, by any measure, Brexit is failing to deliver on the promises, ie yesterday Fox had to admit that they wouldn't have all the trade deals rolled over in time, they are simply brushing away any and all potential concerns as project fear.

    But one also has to consider TM decision in terms of the electoral situation in the UK. According to many polls, there really isn't any potential cost to the Tory party in following this path. Labour are completely ineffectual, Corbyn is not liked or trusted and his front bench is clearly split (Starmer for example). But where else can voters look to? They really have little choice but one of those.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,639 ✭✭✭54and56


    As it stands, 60% would vote to stay in the UK. However, that percentage would change significantly depending on the type of Brexit Britain ends up with.

    If we end up with a No Deal Brexit and there is a serious contraction of the UK economy with reduced living standards, growing unemployment etc the circumstances to promote and win independence votes in both Scotland and NI will be about as optimum as possible and will boil down to a choice between staying with the Tories who knowingly led GBNI into economic and political chaos or jump ship and rejoin the EU as an independent state in the case of Scotland or as part of a newly constituted 32 county Ireland in the case of NI. Joining/re-joining the EU won't be ass simple as that of course and may take many years in the case of Scotland in particular but the appetite to get away from GBNI will never be higher in Scotland or NI than when the negative economic effects of a No Deal Brexit are being felt about this time next year!!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,639 ✭✭✭54and56


    I have seen some talk on Twitter that May is coming around to thinking No Deal is OK. The suggestion is that she has no plan or strategy, is making it up as she goes and that No Deal at least leaves her in #10 until the next election.

    Anything else requires her to

    a) make a difficult decision to U turn

    and

    b) bring Parliament with her.

    No Deal just needs her to run down the clock and frustrate Parliament.

    No deal is the path of least resistance for May right now and after 2.5 years of Brexit Grind day in and day out I'd say mentally she has thrown the towel in and will limp across the No Deal line on March 29th whilst blaming everyone else for giving her no other choice.


This discussion has been closed.
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