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Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

1246740

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭Jayd0g


    del roy wrote: »
    Jay
    this way Jerry has most of the field covered.

    Anyway someone awhile back was wondering how Jerrys "info only" tips were doing. It won't take long to find out who to follow. :D


    Ah,so it's intentional?

    Makes sense!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭del roy


    Jayd0g wrote: »
    Ah,so it's intentional?

    Makes sense!

    Yes Jay, I asked Jerry to seperate his selections from info as someone also said then Jerry is not beating the book by himself but with info from others but thats just getting too picky as who gives a fook what help he has once it does what it says on the tin.

    Btw, this will get very interesting if Jerry has a purple patch this summer as we have 13.5k views in just under 3 weeks. Not for a minute saying every viewer is backing them but if he has a week or two like when he first started it will be interesting to see how many start backing them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭del roy


    4.05 Vaniteux 2pts win 5/1

    5.35 Aussie Valentine 2pts e/w 12/1
    AV has humped some weights around Naas in his five years of racing. He finished 3rd in the Lincoln here at Naas. Two years ago he tried to give Marshall Jennings 10LB and was beaten 2 and 1/4 lenghts. Tomorrow Marshall Jennings has to give AV 13LB. thats just the different direction both horses went up and down the handicap. He is also hugely better off at the weights with Katiymann who beat him in Leopardstown when AA was trying to give him 10LB.

    Ok he is only 2 wins from 26 races however he was placed in no fewer than 14 of them races. He seems to run well at Naas, he is a strong traveller and hopefully the better ground brings out a small bit of improvement for his recent new trainer Mr McGUINNESS who is a dab hand with handicappers mostly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭Jayd0g


    del roy wrote: »
    Yes Jay, I asked Jerry to seperate his selections from info as someone also said then Jerry is not beating the book by himself but with info from others but thats just getting too picky as who gives a fook what help he has once it does what it says on the tin.

    Btw, this will get very interesting if Jerry has a purple patch this summer as we have 13.5k views in just under 3 weeks. Not for a minute saying every viewer is backing them but if he has a week or two like when he first started it will be interesting to see how many start backing them.

    Ah I see, that makes sense. Cheers for explaining!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭del roy


    Kempton 5.15 cascaye 2pts e/w 11/1

    info stuff.

    4.05 Vaniteux 2pts win 5/1

    5.35 Aussie Valentine 2pts e/w 12/1


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭the whole year inn


    del roy wrote: »
    Kempton 5.15 cascaye 2pts e/w 11/1

    info stuff.

    4.05 Vaniteux 2pts win 5/1

    5.35 Aussie Valentine 2pts e/w 12/1

    Which is the info there looks like the 5.15 bet to me.
    Just want to clear it up.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭del roy


    Which is the info there looks like the 5.15 bet to me.
    Just want to clear it up.

    Yes 5.15 bet is the info.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭the whole year inn


    del roy wrote: »
    4.05 Vaniteux 2pts win 5/1

    5.35 Aussie Valentine 2pts e/w 12/1
    AV has humped some weights around Naas in his five years of racing. He finished 3rd in the Lincoln here at Naas. Two years ago he tried to give Marshall Jennings 10LB and was beaten 2 and 1/4 lenghts. Tomorrow Marshall Jennings has to give AV 13LB. thats just the different direction both horses went up and down the handicap. He is also hugely better off at the weights with Katiymann who beat him in Leopardstown when AA was trying to give him 10LB.

    Ok he is only 2 wins from 26 races however he was placed in no fewer than 14 of them races. He seems to run well at Naas, he is a strong traveller and hopefully the better ground brings out a small bit of improvement for his recent new trainer Mr McGUINNESS who is a dab hand with handicappers mostly.

    4.05 A NR


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,289 ✭✭✭robbiezero


    4.05 A NR

    4.40?


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭the whole year inn


    robbiezero wrote: »
    4.40?

    Yep must be.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,089 ✭✭✭Happy4all


    robbiezero wrote: »
    4.40?

    might have had a chance if it started at 4.05... out the back the whole way


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,131 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Happy4all wrote: »
    might have had a chance if it started at 4.05... out the back the whole way

    Have you a crystal ball?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,132 ✭✭✭akelly02


    Who is the non runner


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭del roy


    No non runners lads, my fault,

    4.40 Vaniteux 2pts win 5/1

    will check myself in future, I just copy and paste.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,089 ✭✭✭Happy4all


    Have you a crystal ball?

    joke lost on you, obviously.....


  • Registered Users Posts: 20 Nothingbutbets


    Cascaye just pipped, very unlucky


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭del roy


    Cascaye just pipped, very unlucky

    Yeah bit of a sickener, thats 3 or 4 close finishes we have been done on. place money landed, soften the losses for the day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,908 ✭✭✭Cherry_Cola


    Feck, thought Aussie Valentine had 3rd there! Ah well.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭del roy


    25 bets
    3 winners
    +50.6pts

    A loss of 3.6pts today.

    No bets tomorrow.

    info bets so far, fours bets from the 25 selections were "info stuff"
    below are the results

    Cascaye 11/1 2nd
    Minella scamp 4/1 1st
    Cleonte 12/1 2nd
    great shot sam 7/1 2nd.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭del roy


    Apologies for this but Jerry just send me this.

    7.20 lip service 3pts win. 4/1

    info stuff.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭del roy


    Chester 3.00 SHOWMETHEDOUGH 5/1 2pts win

    5f (5f15y) Boodles Diamond Handicap (Class 2) (3yo 0-105)
    Showmethedough is owned by Dr Marwan Koukash who just loves to have a winner or two at Chester. It’s no secret his trainers have his horses primed for this and other Chester meetings.
    Showmethedough ran 3rd to Savalas on the 21st April last month where the 5 furlong trip looked far too short for him. He ran on very well in that race obviously being prepped up for this Chester race.
    Savalas was racing off a mark of 86 that day giving only 2LB to Showmethedough. He then went on to win a conditions race up in Hamilton where the 2nd and 3rd were rated 97 and 102. If you could take that form literally at face value Showmethemoney should be around the 2/1 mark.
    The handicapper says the best horse in the race is Spoof rated 95 and I do respect the Hill stable also like a winner but Spoof has to give Showmethedough a massive 12LB.
    Trainer Richard Fahy has a 13% strike rate with his three year olds but that increases to 25% when they are fav which I expect Showmethedough to be tomorrow by race time

    Richard Fahy says:
    I’m pleased Showmethedough has got a decent draw in four for the Boodles Diamond Handicap at Chester. Marwan Koukash has had some terrible luck on that front at this meeting for the last two years but we've no excuses with this fellow.
    He ran well at Thirsk first time out and we’ve been happy with him since. He’s in great order and it’s just a question of whether he’s going to be quick enough over five furlongs around here. I hope he is.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭del roy


    Chester 5.05 Intransigent 10/1 3pts e/w

    7f (7f1y) Greenhous Handicap (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-85) O.R 84
    Intransigent is literally “thrown in” here. He has raced 36 times on turf producing three wins, seven 2nd places and four 3rd places. Ok he is a 9yr old however he is very well treated on his past Chester runs. This is a class 4 handicap, below is Intransigent’s Chester record.

    02-Sept-17……….10th of 12 runners 7.5 furlongs class 2 O.R 91
    Quote Intransigent loves it here at Chester, he's a little bit unpredictable but he's drawn well and I'd like to think he will run well today and have a good e/w chance.

    12-May-17………..11th of 11 runners 7.5 furlongs class 2 O.R 91

    24-Sept-16…………2nd of 7 runners 7 furlongs class 3 O.R 94
    Quote Intransigent is back to a mark where he should be competitive from, he's in great form at home, loves it around here and this seems to be his time of year. Now in a 0-95 I'm hopeful with the usual luck that you need around here he can run a big race. A. Balding

    20-Aug-16…………2nd of 11 runners 7.5 furlongs class 2 OR 99
    QUOTE Intransigent loves the track, hasn't been at his best in the couple of runs he's had since his break but he usually improves for racing and I can see him running an improved race today. Hopefully he does show better form and if so would have solid place chances. A. Balding

    31-Jul-16…………..6th of 7 runners 6 furlongs class 1 listed O.R 100 btn 3L

    02-Aug-15………. 5th of 8 runners 6 furlongs class 1 listed O.R 109 btn 2L
    Quote He loves it at Chester (ed. 1 win, 4 places from 7 starts) and won this race last year. He caries a penalty but he is a big horse and I think he is good enough to carry that. The danger is the July Cup third (Eastern Impact) and if that one runs a similar race it would be tough to beat. Hopeful though that Intransigent will go close.

    11-Jul-15…………. 2nd of 7 runners 7 furlongs class 1 listed O.R 109 btn hd
    Quote Intransigent likes it around here (ed. 1 win 3 places from 6 runs) and has a decent draw. I don't think the penalty will be that much of an inconvenience and as long as there is a good pace on he will run very well. With pace in the race he is the one they have to beat. A. Balding

    03-Aug-14……….1st of 7 runners 6 furlongs class 1 listed O.R 102 1st
    QUOTE Intransigent does like it around here and I was very hopeful of a big run until we got the draw!! He'll need a lot of luck in running from here but if he were to get that luck then HE would be involved. Trainer A. Balding

    12-Jul-14…………4th of 7 runners 7 furlongs class 1 listed O.R 102 btn 1L

    04-Aug-13……….2nd of 10 runners 6 furlongs class 1 listed O.R 90 btn 1/2L
    Quote Intransigent likes it around here (ed. placed twice from three starts). He's higher rated on the AW but if they have a bit of rain (possible showers) then would be a player from a good draw, he also has assistance from Franny Norton. A. Balding

    13-Jul-13…………3rd of 11 runners 6 furlongs class 2 O.R 90 btn 1L 3/4L
    Quote Intransigent has gone well here in the past which is always useful. He's fit and well but this looks a competitive race and I think a place is probably the best we can hope for. A. Balding

    25-May-13………2nd of 8 runners 6 furlongs class 3 O.R 92 btn 2L
    Quote Intransigent seems to be better on the all weather, having said that I think he ran well on his only appearance here so that could counter the surface issue. He could surprise. A. Balding

    10-May-12……….6th of 11 runners 6 furlongs class 3 O.R 88 btn 2L 1/4L

    13 races at Chester, all far superior to tomorrow’s race were albeit he only won once but he obviously likes racing at this quirky track. His official rating in tomorrow’s race is 84 with the jock taking a further 5LB off.
    Regarding the jockey although he is inexperienced his claim means Intransigent runs off 79. I do think he has improved since he last rode Intransigent. William has ridden INTRANSIGENT three times. He has 11 winners from 134 rides in 2018—8% however 29 of them were 2nd or 3rd which gives us some indication he is getting to grips with balance and motion on the horses. I am hoping for at least 12 or 14/1 so a max e/w for me 3pts e/w.

    Onto the trainer, Andrew Balding has had 91 3yr old and older runners at Chester. 24 have won. A strike rate of 26.37%. A p/l to sp leaves a profit of 54.83 The trainer has started 2018 very well with some of his older horses running really well.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭del roy


    Ttt

    Tonight......7.20 lip service 3pts win. 4/1
    Tomorrow.....Chester 3.00 SHOWMETHEDOUGH 5/1 2pts win
    Tomorrow.....Chester 5.05 Intransigent 10/1 3pts e/w


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭del roy


    info bets so far, five bets from the 26 selections were "info stuff"
    below are the results

    Cascaye 11/1 2nd
    Minella scamp 4/1 1st
    Cleonte 12/1 2nd
    great shot sam 7/1 2nd.
    lip service 3pts win. 4/1 3rd.


    Hi
    I just got off the phone to Del and asked him to pop up the gist of the conversation. I do feel responsible for what you guys on here back so I would like to explain my betting patterns.

    I would advise people not to wait just for the info bets or increase their stakes when it is an info bet as if I could win just following them it would save me three hours a day and €300 per month on various sites, example, racingpost/ stats sites/
    one particular tipping site which has a data bank on what the trainer says about their horse each time it runs.
    The tipping site is invaluable to me as trainers give tiny details about their horses each time they run but when you put them all together you get a clear picture of what both horse and trainer like or dislike.
    I put approximately three hours study or updating my notes and tracking system everyday except for when I take a break.

    Do not wait for the info stuff only as if it was hugely profitable I would knock all the daily stuff I do and just wait for it myself.

    On a different note all together, I see PADDY POWER were 13/2 with Intransigent early yesterday evening. Everyone cannot just roll up to powers on their mobile and just take what price they are offering at the time you read the bet on here.
    There are loads of bookmakers on line, open new accounts with them. deposit thru Paypal.

    Can I just warn all young lads (and aul lads) DO NOT GAMBLE ON YOUR CREDIT OR DEBIT CARDS. Once the banks see you are gambling whether you are winning or losing, your credit rating will be fooked. That's all loan applications will be refused if they see gambling of any kind on your bank statement.

    One of the reasons I did this thread was to show people you can enjoy betting if you bet whats on the thread and within your means.
    At a fiver a point the most you would have been losing was €50 and also at a fiver a point you maybe winning €250 now.
    Always keep the value of one point to an amount you can afford.

    Sorry for the sermon but we Gamblers sometimes do stupid things just so we can keep gambling, if you have to drop to €2 a point, do it or if you just pop in to read the thread.

    I do not wish to glorify this thread, all it is, is another gambling thread looking for the holy grail.

    However if you want to follow someone who has won five years from the last six, (could be 5 from 7 after this year) spends approximately three hours a day studying and spends €300 per month on horse racing websites.

    Then look no further, I am that man.

    The gist of the conversion with Jerry.

    Hope no one takes this the wrong way, Jerry just wanted to give lads on here his view of his OWN BETTING.

    DEL


    26 bets
    3 winners
    +47.6pts


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭del roy


    Regarding our max e/w bet, here is what Mr Balding has to say about his chances today.


    Chester 5.05 Intransigent 10/1 3pts e/w

    17.05 Intransigent is becoming frustrating as he still has the ability. I am hoping that a return to turf does the trick today. He is down to a very low weight and has a great draw. He could win this easily if he wants to. Fingers crossed.

    A. Balding


    Chester 3.00 SHOWMETHEDOUGH 5/1 2pts win

    If you could take that form literally at face value Showmethemoney should be around the 2/1 mark.

    Nearly there Jerry, 3/1 with most, 11/4 with few.


    WE GOT NO RUN WHATSOEVER THERE.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,908 ✭✭✭Cherry_Cola


    FWIW regarding gambling practices, I do the following:

    1. Top up Revolut card which is attached to Paypal.
    2. Deposit via Paypal
    3. With winnings, I can withdraw to Paypal and then to bank account OR with PP use the prepaid card that allows you withdraw from ATMs as it gives instant access to the money.

    Does a pretty good job I find.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭del roy


    FWIW regarding gambling practices, I do the following:

    1. Top up Revolut card which is attached to Paypal.
    2. Deposit via Paypal
    3. With winnings, I can withdraw to Paypal and then to bank account OR with PP use the prepaid card that allows you withdraw from ATMs as it gives instant access to the money.

    Does a pretty good job I find.

    Good thing Cherry, I learned the hard way myself bad enough the bookmakers closing you down when/if the only thing you do is beat their odds makers, the banks will actually hold it against you for doing something that makes you money, I suppose it's the long term they look at just like the bookmakers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,908 ✭✭✭Cherry_Cola


    Agh just got refunded on Intransigent, guess it's a non-runner now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭del roy


    Chester 5.05 Intransigent 10/1 3pts e/w

    NON RUNNER


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭del roy


    THURSDAY Chester Dark DEVIL 2pts e/w 9/1 hills

    5.05 1m2½f (1m2f70y) Partner Tech Handicap (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-90)
    Another Fahy trained-Marwan Koukash owned selection merely because of the way he runs his races.
    Firstly the draw, drawn 11 of 12 runners at Chester, is he fooking mentel I hear you say to yourself. However things are not what they seem in this race over the last ten years. The thing about Chester races is the low drawn horses often put too much pace in the very early part of a race in order to hold their stall/rail position. Too often the race is picked up by a horse who comes from behind.
    We have trainer Richard Fahy’s stats for this weeks racing at Chester so I will look into the race stats over the last ten years.
    No fav has won this race.
    Sp of winners…….8/1…5/1….8/1….7/1….9/1….8/1….12/1….25/1….25/1….13/2
    Stall number of the winners.
    8…2…11…6…11…8…8…12…5…9
    Age of the last ten winners.
    4 yr old (2)
    5 yr old (4)
    6 yr old (1)
    7yr old (2)
    8 yr old (1)
    Fahy’s record, he had runners in eight runners in the last eight running’s.
    One winner, two 3rd places and a 4th place the best he managed
    1/8 wins not fantastic but three 3rds and a 4th makes it look a little better however I am more intested in Dark Devils stats.

    Let’s move onto DARK DEVIL himself. Seems to be crying out for a step up in trip.
    He has raced twenty times in his career, resulting in three wins, four 2nd places and three 3rd places.
    That’s a 50% place strike rate, however move on to his Chester course form which reads 23312.
    That’s a whooping 100% place strike rate at the course.


    9/1, yes please. 2nd. beaten. nk


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