Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

del roy wrote: »

THURSDAY Chester Dark DEVIL 2pts e/w 9/1 hills

5.05 1m2½f (1m2f70y) Partner Tech Handicap (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-90)
Another Fahy trained-Marwan Koukash owned selection merely because of the way he runs his races.
Firstly the draw, drawn 11 of 12 runners at Chester, is he fooking mentel I hear you say to yourself. However things are not what they seem in this race over the last ten years. The thing about Chester races is the low drawn horses often put too much pace in the very early part of a race in order to hold their stall/rail position. Too often the race is picked up by a horse who comes from behind.
We have trainer Richard Fahy’s stats for this weeks racing at Chester so I will look into the race stats over the last ten years.
No fav has won this race.
Sp of winners…….8/1…5/1….8/1….7/1….9/1….8/1….12/1….25/1….25/1….13/2
Stall number of the winners.
8…2…11…6…11…8…8…12…5…9
Age of the last ten winners.
4 yr old (2)
5 yr old (4)
6 yr old (1)
7yr old (2)
8 yr old (1)
Fahy’s record, he had runners in eight runners in the last eight running’s.
One winner, two 3rd places and a 4th place the best he managed
1/8 wins not fantastic but three 3rds and a 4th makes it look a little better however I am more intested in Dark Devils stats.

Let’s move onto DARK DEVIL himself. Seems to be crying out for a step up in trip.
He has raced twenty times in his career, resulting in three wins, four 2nd places and three 3rd places.
That’s a 50% place strike rate, however move on to his Chester course form which reads 23312.
That’s a whooping 100% place strike rate at the course.


9/1, yes please.

another sickener :mad:

Its a lottery of a handicap but this horse is not a 16/1 shot.

11/1 with two bookmakers. 10/1 with the rest.


FOOK. PRICEWISED


Chester Cup from nice draw
Alan Crowhurst
1 of 1
8:00PM, MAY 10 2018

Above The Rest
1.50 Chester
1pt win

Above The Rest
1:50 Chester

Restorer
3.00 Chester
1pt win

Restorer
3:00 Chester

Fun Mac
3.35 Chester
1pt win

Fun Mac
3:35 Chester

My Reward
3.35 Chester
1pt win

My Reward
3:35 Chester

Fun Mac was a good third in last season's 188Bet Chester Cup (3.35) when drawn in stall 13. From a slightly lower mark this time around and with a much better draw there is every reason to expect an even better effort.

Clearly Hughie Morrison will have targeted this race again with Fun Mac, who tends to run his best race each season first time out. He's won twice on his seasonal debut and his run last year was on his reappearance, too.

The final piece of the jigsaw is the booking of Oisin Murphy. Not all jockeys always engage their brains but Murphy does every time and I have no doubt he will have Fun Mac on the rail just behind the leaders soon after the start.

Magic Circle has an obvious chance after his excellent run from a dire draw last year and he's clearly been bought by his new connections with this race in mind.

There is nothing not to like about his chance except to say that he is a few pounds higher than last year and has never been an easy ride.

In any case there is very little between him and My Reward on their run at York last season and from stall one he is worth backing too.

My Reward might not be an out-and-out stayer but he will travel well, has the best draw and has loads of form over 2m that gives him a solid chance.

The more you watch races around Chester the more you notice how important it is to have a horse with a bit of zip, whatever the distance, and My Reward is sure to be bang in contention turning for home, and if the excellent David Allan manages to save something then he could easily hold on.

The one who worries me most is Dubawi Fifty, who hasn't run a bad race for ages and keeps on improving. I wouldn't be at all sure the handicapper has caught up with him quite yet, but he's got a tricky draw in stall ten.


Jerry, let me pop into some of his sites he pays for, Jesus you would need three hours a day just to study one or two races obviously he is using t.hem years but very heavy reading

8.10 Bacaarcat 2pts e/w 20/1

info stuff

Saturday. Ascot.
2.15 Koeman 2pts e/w 11/1


Last September at Kempton Koeman beat what I would call two battle hardened 3yr olds.
Al hamdany and Bush house who were beaten fair and square by Koeman when he was an unfancied 20/1 shot. The fact that they were 2nd and 3rd in the race is a big plus for me.
Al hamdany's alweather form reads 412152122443
Bush house's alweather form reads 21133
If Koeman is half as tough on the turf Ascot should suit him down to the ground. He has raced 12 times on turf, one win, 2nd and three 3rds.
The Trainer couldn't be in better form, last 14 days, 9 winners from 42 runners.
Tomorrows jockey D.Egan has ridden Koeman three times resulting in 1st 3rd 5th.
First bet for tomorrow

Friday Chester 3,35 fun mac 2pts e/w 16/1 2nd profit 6pts

ascot 8.10 Bacaarcat 2pts e/w 20/1 3rd profit 8pts

ripon 8.00 straits of magellan 1pt e/w 25/1 lost

12 pts profit for a day with out a winner.

31 bets
3 winners
+64.1pts

Friday 1st June 2018
The Oaks…..Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w

I think this is a seriously good filly. Her 3yr old form reads 131. I am really interested in colts and filly’s who win over the mile distance at the young edge of two.
Her 2yr old form reads 131. She started her career at Yarmouth of all places where she made all and duly won. Comments of race were
Made all, ridden over 2f out, driven over 1f out, going best after and stayed on well, comfortably (op 5/2). The form of the race has not worked out great with only the second horse winning so far.

On to Chantilly for the Prix d'Aumale (Group 3) (2yo Fillies) (Turf) 5 runners. Wild illusion went off 7/2. They decided to give her some cover in the small field of five runners. Two things may have happened that day
1. She hated being held up.
2. She just did not run her race that day for whatever reason.
She was only beaten 1L 3/4L.
They must have went home and realised they did the wrong thing by holding her up. Three weeks later they supplemented her for the Total Prix Marcel Boussac - Criterium des Pouliches (Group 1) (2yo Fillies) (Turf).
Here’s what the post say
However, Appleby has seen an improvement in her form at home and after a meeting with Sheikh Mohammed the call was made to roll the dice and supplement the filly.
Under a positive James Doyle ride, that gamble paid off spectacularly, as the daughter of Dubawi led early in the home straight before staying on stoutly for a 25-1 success over the previously unbeaten Polydream.
“She came forward a lot for her last run and we were delighted with her at home," said Appleby. "I spoke to his highness in depth about her and he said, 'Go for it, if you're happy with the horse'."

Fast forward to the races James Doyle takes the lead as soon as the stalls open, makes all and wins by 1L and ¾ beating France’s big hope, the unbeaten Polydream.

Make no mistake to do what she did at 2yrs old to some very well bred horses over a mile when her pedigree is packed with stamina gives her a big shout in this year’s oaks. Also her win was a second faster than the Oaks fav Happily who is 6/1. Wild Illusion has a dosage index of 0.50 which is excellent.

I am not mad on her for the 1000 Guineas as her stamina at 2yrs of age helped her beat the well bred milers but it will be much tougher as a 3yr old
They say the guineas is the best trial for the Derby and Oaks so let’s see if she tries to make all the running and more importantly will she be passed.

This is an ante post bet if the horse does not run we lose our money.

Jerry

I thought I would let the dust settle for a while before I had a look back at the 1000 guineas. Wild Illusion finished 4th beaten 2 and 3/4L. Some observations from the race,

She was first off the bridle, 2f out she was literally being scrubbed along with Jame Doyle really getting down in the saddle, the winner passed her as if was trotting down to the start.
So her record is, raced four times, won twice, lost twice.
Made the running in the two races she won, didn't make it in the two she lost.
I think James Doyle when he got a good break from the stalls and was in the lead must have sensed/known she was not fit enough to go the speed he wanted to go, for that mile race. He let the horse that eventually finished 2nd pass his filly as if to say, I am not going any faster, first time out when the Oaks is our target.

I am quite happy with the race she ran.

One filly I was impressed with was Forever Together finished full of running in what looked to me a slowly run trial at Chester on Thursday. They ran each furlong at 13.10 second, Young Rascals race was a furlong further and they ran the furlong in that race at 12.99.
Forever Together got hampered when she try to make her run, lost momentum but got going again very quickly, that's a hard thing to do in a slow run race and if the oaks is run too quick Forever Together will benefit the most.
I see two firms going 12/1 on WILD ILLUSION. That seems fair however I expect her to come on a bundle for the guineas run and think she will go off at the 7/1 mark.

James Doyle said after the race,

I'm pretty pleased with Wild Illusion. She coped with the ground pretty well and is crying out for a bit more distance.

Roll on Epsom.


Jerry

ballyhagan wrote: »

NR: 5.10 Sea Shack.

Just seen that now, ah well, the bright side is we can only lose 4pts now.

Unless you have some info stuff Jerry.

3.55 Gopies daughter 20/1 1pt e/w info 2nd photo

another sickener.

4.45 wooster 2pts e/w 14/1

Sunday, Leopardstown. 1m4f
4.45 WOOSTER 2pts e/w 14/1 Official Rating 82
Ran in a 8k maiden at Navan last September when beaten 3L by Goldrush. He was giving Goldrush 5LB. (filly allowance). Here are the comments for Goldrush for that maiden.
Chased leaders, 3rd halfway, took closer order on outer 3f out, led 2f out and soon ridden clear, stayed on well inside final furlong, easily (op 9/2).

Goldrush then went up to Dundalk for a 26k Listed race where he won easily, below are the comments. Raced in mid-division, ridden to chase leaders over 1f out, led final 150yds, stayed on strongly (op 11/4)
He beat Marshall Jennings who stayed on very well in a race the other day against AUSSIE VALENTINE where Marshall Jennings was nearly 2st worst off with Aussie Valentine but still passed him as if he was stood still.

Goldrush then came back to Dundalk again for another listed race this one was worth 32k, went off the 9/4f and below are the comments
Settled behind leader in 2nd early, 3rd halfway, ridden in 2nd under 2f out and disputed lead inside final furlong, ran on well under pressure to lead well inside final furlong, held on well (op 5/2)

Held on well from who, Aneen a 96 rated filly, comments are… Bumped start, held up towards rear, ridden near side under 2f out and ran on well inside final furlong to snatch 2nd final strides, nearest finish (op 10/1)

The 3rd was Belle Boyd a 93 rated filly, comments are.. Mid-division early, closer in 4th before halfway, ridden in 3rd under 2f out and closed under pressure to challenge far side inside final furlong, held by winner closing stages, denied 2nd final strides (op 8/1)

This was a very good race, which just shows how tough GOLDRUSH is, she is now unbeaten.

Here is an analysis of the three fillys
GOLDRUSH is a little cracker. Unhelped by a wide draw here and dropping back to a mile after looking like needing every yard over an extended 1m2f last time, the EUR1,700,000 yearling maintained her unbeaten record in courageous fashion. Well-positioned by Kevin Manning to make use of her stamina, the China Horse Club-owned filly was never far away from the pace and started rolling two furlongs out. She had every opportunity to fold, with challengers attacking her from all angles, but she kept fighting tenaciously to see off all comers. She could arguably be the sort of filly who perhaps keeps something up her sleeve, only doing as much as necessary, which could ensure longevity for her four-year-old campaign. She is surely one of the most valuable fillies in training at present given her outstanding pedigree and unbeaten CV. You would expect no less being a daughter of the great FRANKEL.

Aneen has run her best race for a little while, with this return to a mile bringing about improvement. The draw could have been kinder to her but Chris Hayes took his time on the 1,000 Guineas fancy earlier this season, giving away ground coming wide before doing her best work late. She is a capable filly in her own right.

Belle Boyd has run a blinder, showing that she is an above average sort. She has completely reversed the form of her last run with Hunaina and the manner in which she stuck to the task suggests that she could be up to even winning a Listed event. She could be a lovely prospect next season.

The reason I delved into Goldrush’s form so much was to point out the hell of a task WOOSTER had trying to give a filly of Goldrush’s calibre the 5LB filly allowance. Wooster has only had 5 races on turf and they were all when he was a 3yr old. I have no idea why Joseph O’ Brien sold him but he did, last December 2017 and he Joined little unknown trainer Noel C Kelly who trains up in Derry.

Noel Kelly the trainer received this horse when he was rated 76, he has raced him four times since, resulting in two wins, a 3rd place and a 5th place.
Wooster has raced only twice over 1m4f, record over the distance read 1st, below are the comments
Wooster has gone from looking exposed to winning his last two runs well, and on this evidence, there could be more improvement to come.
WOOSTER took a while to find the back of the net but, with confidence high after breaking his duck in a 1m2f maiden at the track last time, he handled this step up in trip to run out a convincing winner. There could be a nice little prize to be won with him.

and 8th where he was hampered when making his move, did not recover, beaten 4 and1/2L.

He has a dosage index of 0.88 which is PERFECT for an 82 rated horse who has won over the 1m4f before, trained by a little unknown trainer and is a huge 14/1. Happy days.

On to the fav CURLEY BILL, a ten year old, 5/2 and never raced at the track before, he does stay extremely well but I would respect CLONGOWES more, he has rock solid form at the course and if there is a lot of money for this one it we may be in trouble however at 14/1 WOOSTER is our man.

What a coincidence, as I am writing this I just checked the results and the trainer Noel Kelly has just has a 4/1 winner over at Hexham so the yard are in form. Also I would have thought the trainer would have picked up a few handicaps in the UK with this fella so the fact he comes down here to such a tough handicap bodes well for us.

Whether he wins or loses I have now let the cat out of the bag on this one and all of the people who view this thread, can’t believe it is not even running a month yet we have over 22k views.

Please keep to the stakes advised 2pts e/w 14/1.

Lets hope he runs well after all this studying.