All Weather Winter Warmer

Two against the field in the 2.20:
2.20: Southwell: Seventii (12/1 365, BVl) 1pt Win / Handsome Bob (20/1 Ladbrokes, BV) 1pt Win
Very weak race and not too many come into it in any real form. Taken a pot shot at two fibresand debutants.
Seventii looks like should handle the surface on breeding, has shown a reasonable level of form without winning often and should be able to get competitive off this sort of mark if taking to the surface, does not look particularly fast so the slower surface may help her keep up with the pace. Yard had a very impressive fibresand debutant winner here recently (runs again in first today).
Handsome Bob is a similar enough angle insofar as does not look to be the quickest and relishes a bit of a test. Not enough data on sire to really make any judgement on how likely is to handle the surface but American pedigree on dam side should improve chances. Bombed out on most recent run but tends to mix awful runs with good runs so wouldn’t put me off too much. Hard to know what to expect but capable off this mark if in the mood and handling conditions.

2.50 Southwell: Furni Factors (10/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
Never won a race but has not been beaten very far on 3 previous visits to Southwell, including on most recent run. Nothing wrong with that performance and is now bit better drawn for one that likes to go forward, is better off with Minninggold at the weights and on that basis should really be reversing that form but Minninggold is half the price of my selection. As usual with a lot of horses I tend to bet, you could not be overly confident of him deciding to put his head in front but should be bang there on all known form and looks very good value to be in the first 4.

African Showgirl was well backed and ran respectably without ever looking like winning, she gets behind early and seems to not like the kickback, both of which are quite significant issues round there but does get through it alright, not sure will want to be on her again though. White Iverson drifted big time on the show and ran no sort of race really, probably not fit, would be willing to give him another chance. Handsome Bob continues to mix the (relatively) sublime with the ridiculous and got it done in pretty emphatic fashion from the front after looking likely to get run down in the straight, Seventii looked to go alright on the surface but was bit too far back and weakened tamely enough late on. Furni Factors ran usual race to chase home the winner, will continue to be of interest for a place at least over that C&D.

+21pts on the day

Thanks all. In line with what has been posted by ASOT there, not doing this thread to be competitive with anyone else or any other threads. Just enjoy making a case for a horse and betting to my opinion - I am no professional and just do it for a laugh, if a few quid can be made in the process than happy days.

Current level of return is not going to be sustainable over an extended period anyway so if you are following prepare for some losses. :pac:

Totals
Staked 70.00
Returned 114.10
P/L 44.10
ROI 63.00%

Probably easier to keep this up-to-date on a daily basis, if I screw anything up with the totals let me know

You can take your pick of threads on here to have arguments in lads, would prefer to keep this one on track though.

Southwell first, Dundalk later.

11.20: Southwell: Alba Del Sole (25/1 365, BV, Hills) 1pt Win
Struggled a bit on last two starts since getting hit with a 5lb rise in the ratings for winning a novice event at Kempton. The 2nd place horse from that race, Crash Helmet, won its next start and then went on to be beaten under two lengths (in fifth place admittedly) in a handicap off a mark of 69. My selection beat that one by 2 lengths at Kempton (getting 4lbs) and runs off 65 today so definitely not harshly weighted on literal reading of those figures. Was beaten quite a long way at Newcastle LTO but the hold up horses could never get into that race so can be overlooked. Not run on the fibresand before but has the US blood on dam side and Dandy Man got a decent strike rate from relatively small sample of runners on the surface. Hopefully does not get too far behind early and can give a good run at a big price with the Furtado yard amongst the winners.

3.15 Southwell: Katie Gale (18/1 Generally) 1pt Win
Rare bad run at this venue on most recent start, that was only the 3rd occasion that she has finished outside of the first 3 from 17 runs on fibresand at Southwell (including 4 wins), so fair to say that she goes well round here. Is now an 8 year old so probably in decline to some extent but was good enough to win off 2lbs higher here in March of this year (with the fav for todays race a long way behind) and has generally been running respectably without winning since, so not convinced she is necessarily gone at the game yet. Shame there is not an extra runner to give 3 places as think would be a decent EW bet in those circumstances but price is too big regardless and happy to take chance that can put in a much better performance than was case last time, she should be involved if she can.

2.05 Southwell: Custard The Dragon (14/1 365) 1.5pts EW
Handles the fibresand very well indeed with 6 wins and 2 places from 10 runs at the course and three most recent runs here have all been in a grade higher than todays race (although is a fairly strong one for the grade today so probably not much difference really). Unproven at a mile but proven ability to handle the surface is more important than ability to fully stay the trip here in my opinion. Pretty much guaranteed to run well with Luke Morris booked and no idea how it can be a 14s shot.

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

7.00 Dundalk: Kerosin (4/1 Generally) 1.5pts Win

Holding form well since moving to Denis Hogan having previously been with owner/trainer and specialist in failure, James McAuley. Won last time despite not getting a clear run down the straight and has gone up 4lbs for that but is still below mark it was running decnt races in handicaps on turf for previous yard during summer, as Hogan is a undoubtedly a better trainer than McAuley the horse should continue improving on that basis alone. All 4 runs here have been decent with one win, one place and not beaten far on two unplaced runs. Elliot LTO winner has been well backed under penalty but keen to take that on at current prices and my selection also meets Too Precious on much better terms than when 5th behind that one on penultimate start.

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

8.00 Dundalk: Pact Of Steel (14/1 Hills) 1pt Win / Manorov (17/2 365) 1pt Win

Two against the field here. Pact Of Steel first run for Birrane after having been with Harry Dunlop in UK, yard have done OK with other horses making the same move in the past and is one of the classier horses in the race and had been in reasonable form before leaving Dunlop. Reproduction of form of 2nd to Sounds Approving at Wolverhampton would seem him go close in this race. All form in UK has been on AW in and being by Declaration Of War can be expected to act well at Dundalk.

Manorov an old Dundalk favourite who showed some promise for first time in a while LTO, had previously been off the track for a long time and is now very well handicapped on historic form. Inexperienced jockey but she does ride a lot of McCourt's horses at home so should now the horse well at least.

+6.5pts on the day

Totals
Staked 80.00
Returned 130.60
P/L 50.60
ROI 63.25%