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Mostly Harmless · 26-12-2018 12:56pm

1.05 Wolverhampton – De Little Engine (40/1 Paddy, BV) 1pt Win
Had been progressing well prior to finishing midfield when upped in class at Kempton most recently, that run came after break of few months from the track and was weak in market before that so fitness may have been an issue and not convinced class drop was to blame. Previous run when beating two subsequent winners over this C&D looks good bit better than did at the time and is only two lbs higher than was for that run. Faces competition for the lead from a wide draw which is not ideal, but Kingscote is good on these types so hopefully can get a decent sit early. Cannot see how can be as big as 33s.

1.40 Wolverhampton – Final Attack (14/1 BV, 365) 1pt EW
Been campaigned exclusively at Wolverhampton since switching to Sarah Hollinshead and has been running consistently in similar races, looks to be in decent form of late and ran another respectable race to finish third having looked the most likely winner turning in last time. Less well drawn today but no reason why should not run another similar race and be bang there at the finish.

Maybe one other to follow.

Mostly Harmless · 26-12-2018 1:38pm

3.25 Wolverhampton - Roar (25/1 Generally) 1pt EW
Likely to have needed run last time out at Kempton on debut for De Giles. Drops in class today and best form when trained by Brian Ellison would have to give him a serious chance in this class off a mark of 75. Still relatively unexposed at the trip and on the AW. The three at head of market are respected but they are not prolific winners, Johnston one has only had three runs admittedly but looks to have a few attitude issues on evidence of those runs and happy enough to oppose. Are some risks attached but do feel that a case can be made to have Roar good bit shorter than current odds.

All for today.

Mostly Harmless · 26-12-2018 10:54pm

Nothing worth writing about today really.

-5pts on the day

Totals
Staked 85.00
Returned 130.60
P/L 45.60
ROI 53.65%

Mostly Harmless · 27-12-2018 12:18pm

Got hangover and need to leave house, unlikely to be doing write ups today.

1.25 Wolverhampton: Tarseekh (20/1 Paddy) 1pt Win
2.00 Wolverhampton: Raashdy (20/1 BV, Hills) 1pt EW
2.35 Wolverhampton: Teepee Time (14/1 Coral, Ladbrokes, Boyles) 1.5pts EW
3.10 Wolverhampton: Blistering Bob (25/1 BV, 365) 1pt Win

DubInTheWest · 27-12-2018 12:53pm

Juicy prices be nice if one of them went in. Thanks for the selections.

Mostly Harmless · 27-12-2018 4:29pm

Still hungover

-7pts on the day

Mostly Harmless · 28-12-2018 12:01pm

Totals
Staked 92.00
Returned 130.60
P/L 38.60
ROI 41.96%

Mostly Harmless · 28-12-2018 12:13pm

1.15 Lingfield: Brexitmeansbrexit (14/1 Hills, BV) 1pt Win
Has looked to stay well enough on more than one occasion when running over shorter, finished 2nd over 1m6f at Ffos Las on only other crack at a staying trip and should find Lingfield more suitable to running style than Ffos Las. 3yo and unexposed at this sort of trip up against more exposed types whose current handicap marks look to be towards the top end of their ability, the current fav, Rydan, won weill at Kempton last time but has never been as good at Lingfield and is quite easy to oppose at around the 5/2 mark. Had it priced up around 8/1 so worth a small interest.

Mostly Harmless · 28-12-2018 12:24pm

2.20 Lingfield: Letmestopyouthere (11/1 Generally) 2pts EW
Has had valid excuses for poor runs on two most recent starts, having been badly hampered turning for home at Wolves on penultimate start and the hold up horses never having a chance to get into a falsely run race on most start at Newcastle. Had run well enough to finish 4th over todays C&D on previous start when forced to race wider than ideal, is now 2lbs lower than that run and also has a slightly better draw to work. Is now a good bit lower in weights compared to best form when previously trained by David Evans and also below mark it won off on turf for Michael Bell in the summer, Archie Watson a superior trainer to both of those two on the stats and his record with improving switchers to his yard is very good. Had this a lot shorter than current odds at around 6/1 and will be very hard to keep out of the frame granted normal luck in running.

No more bets today.

Mostly Harmless · 28-12-2018 5:17pm

Neither could land a blow.

-5pts on the day

Totals
Staked 97.00
Returned 130.60
P/L 33.60
ROI 34.64%

Mostly Harmless · 29-12-2018 11:20am

Southwell early start, more bets to follow.

11.30 Southwell: Arms Of The Angel (8/1 365, BV) 2pts Win
Was very keen to oppose Fenjal in this race, who looked a bit of a hound last time when picking up the race in the stewards room with it looking doubtful that would have gone on to win the race under its own steam, looks like other people have got there first with Whatapoet (who would have been my bet at overnight prices) now having usurped that one as clear fav. My bet is a debutant on the surface and no great promise for the fibresand on breeding but Johnston runners at the course usually go well on the surface. Has run respectably in three runs in maidens within the space of one month and was not disgraced on nursery debut when midfield at Wolverhampton last time out. Both Fenjal and Whatapoet ran in that race, with Fenjal running no sort of a race and Whatapoet finishing a couple of lengths ahead, significantly Arms Of The Angel was slowly away in that race and was always struggling to make up the lost ground thereafter. Feel that my selection has more scope for improvement after only four career starts and looks to have been campaigned with low grade handicaps/nurseries in mind. If can get away from the stalls bit faster (expect Kingscote to go forward from wide) and handle the surface then has a very comparable chance on form to the current 2/1 fav so looks a decent bet to my eye.

Mostly Harmless · 29-12-2018 11:42am

Two against the field:

1.10 Southwell: Perfect Soldier (25/1 Paddy, Boyles, Ladbrokes) 1pt Win / Shearian (20/1 Paddy) 1pt Win
Perfect Soldier a fairly simple angle insofar as was good enough to win and place off around half a stone higher when trained by Michael O'Callaghan, looked to go sour in more recent runs so could well be sweetened up by change of yards and I would consider most trainers an upgrade on MOC. Hard to know if fit or if will handle the surface but at around 25/1 happy to take the punt.
Shearian a standing dish round here and this is an easier race than one he was well beaten in last time, not particularly consistent at best of times so feasible that can put in a much improved effort today. Has run some of best races in last 24 months around this time of year off similar handicap marks as today (admittedly the majority in one class lower than today). Wore headgear for first time in a long time last time and they persevere with it today which is a bit of a question mark but is one of only a few in race that are proven on surface and that's always worth a lot at Southwell, think 20s is definitely too big and just hope he is on a going day today.

Mostly Harmless · 29-12-2018 12:15pm

1.45 Southwell: Crosse Fire (20/1 Paddy) 1pt Win
Another fibresand specialist with plenty of form off this sort of mark and higher round here. Not beaten far off slightly higher mark in slightly better race on most recent run over C&D. Has to overcome a 90 day break but has run well on back of breaks in the (distant) past so no entirely without hope. Just think that 20s is always going to be too big about one that’s got a proven record at course/in this class/off this mark.

Mostly Harmless · 29-12-2018 12:23pm

2.20 Southwell: Westfield Wonder (40/1 Generally) 0.5pt EW
Looks to have a bit of a mountain to climb at the weights with a rating of just 40 going up against others with ratings in the mid 50s but also was not being disgraced off marks in 50s round the start of 2018 (including one run here). Only other start at course was last time, when midfield after having raced wider than ideal, that was definitely a step in the right direction compared to other recent efforts. Is a son of Captain Gerard so this surface should represent something like ideal conditions on breeding and not impossible that takes another step in right direction on back of that effort. Drop back in trip may also help and worth a very speculative play in a very bad race.

Mostly Harmless · 29-12-2018 12:34pm

Last one.

3.30 Southwell: Ruler Of The Nile (15/2 365, BV) 2pts EW
Has been surprisingly competitive over a mile on two most recent starts with all best form when trained by previous yard coming over staying trips. Back to something more like a suitable trip now and has been placed here off higher marks in better races for previous yard. Not been with current yard too long and they are generally good at getting wins out of moderate horses so would be hopeful that can run a big race here if coming back to form it showed for previous yard on this surface. Is an abysmal race with very few in any sort of form and most with lots of questions to answer, short priced fav is the only exception to this but that sets it up nicely for an EW bet and think my selection is great value at odds against for the place part at least.

Mostly Harmless · 29-12-2018 12:35pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

11.30 Southwell: Arms Of The Angel (8/1 365, BV) 2pts Win
Was very keen to oppose Fenjal in this race, who looked a bit of a hound last time when picking up the race in the stewards room with it looking doubtful that would have gone on to win the race under its own steam, looks like other people have got there first with Whatapoet (who would have been my bet at overnight prices) now having usurped that one as clear fav. My bet is a debutant on the surface and no great promise for the fibresand on breeding but Johnston runners at the course usually go well on the surface. Has run respectably in three runs in maidens within the space of one month and was not disgraced on nursery debut when midfield at Wolverhampton last time out. Both Fenjal and Whatapoet ran in that race, with Fenjal running no sort of a race and Whatapoet finishing a couple of lengths ahead, significantly Arms Of The Angel was slowly away in that race and was always struggling to make up the lost ground thereafter. Feel that my selection has more scope for improvement after only four career starts and looks to have been campaigned with low grade handicaps/nurseries in mind. If can get away from the stalls bit faster (expect Kingscote to go forward from wide) and handle the surface then has a very comparable chance on form to the current 2/1 fav so looks a decent bet to my eye.

That definitely *did not* handle the surface, oh well.

Mostly Harmless · 29-12-2018 5:27pm

Arms Of The Angel never looked at home on surface and finished well beat. Similar comments for Perfect Soldier, Shearian also well beat despite being well backed late on. Crosse Fire ran a decent race to finish close up behind principles after bit of money arrived on the show, this should have put him spot on for next time and will be of interest over this C&D next time up, hopefully in a slightly weaker contest. Westfield Wonder outran big odds to finish one place out of the money (like all good EW bets), would expect that one to be reappearing over C&D relatively soon too. Ruler Of The Nile was well punted during day but could only manage second behind the short priced fav, jockey did best to bring stamina into play but struggles to win at best of times and was outpointed close home.

Not quite getting the rub of the green at the moment but still beating SP regularly enough and things will hopefully pick up again in due course.

-5pts on the day

Totals
Staked 107.00
Returned 135.60
P/L 28.60
ROI 26.73%

Mostly Harmless · 30-12-2018 12:33pm

Nothing today

Mostly Harmless · 31-12-2018 12:52pm

Two today:

12.45 Lingfield: Al Asef (12/1 365, Paddy, Boyles) 1.5pts Win
Stayed on well from an unpromising position at Kempton last time out on back of a break of a few months. Looks likely to be suited by step up to 7f on that basis and drops down in class today too. Looks a better horse on AW than on turf and still unexposed after only 3 AW starts. 12s looked a few points to big to me.

1.50 Lingfield: Chevallier (8/1 Ladbrokes, Coral paying 3 places 1/5) 2pts EW
Gradually dropping back down to a winnable mark and ran a respectable race at big price on second run back from a break of around 5 months at Wolverhampton last time. Should now be fully fit for this and undoubtedly a better horse here than at Wolverhampton with all 4 wins for current yard coming over this C&D (and under Luke Morris too). Well up to winning this on best form from start of 2018 and looks cracking value at 2.6 to finish in the first 3 in a 6 runner race.

Mostly Harmless · 31-12-2018 8:27pm

Al Asef was very keen in a messy, slowly run race and could never really get into it, probably wants holding up off a fast pace over shorter after all. Chevallier came back to something like best form, running well to finish second in a race that few could get into. Small loss on day with guaranteed price on Chevallier at 17/2.

-0.1pts on the day

Totals
Staked 112.50
Returned 141.00
P/L 28.50
ROI 25.33%

Southwell again tomorrow.

Mostly Harmless · 01-01-2019 1:20pm

Slow start today given the day thats in it, get these up now with write ups to follow:
1.10 Southwell: Zapper Cass (17/2 365, Ladbrokes, BV) 1pt Win
1.45 Southwell: Moonraker (15/2 Ladbrokes) 1pt EW
2.20 Southwell: Saint Equiano (8/1 365, Boyles) 1.5pts Win
2.55 Southwell: Sooqaan (16/1 365) 1pt Win
3.30 Southwell: Luath (6/1 Hills) 2pts Win

Mostly Harmless · 01-01-2019 1:48pm

1.10 Southwell: Zapper Cass (17/2 365, Ladbrokes, BV) 1pt Win
Finifshed midfield when slowly away in a stronger race last time out and gets a small drop in weights today. Not had too many chances on surface but should handle it fine on pedigree. Still good bit below highest mark when trained by Tony Coyle and would hope that Mick Appleby can at least equal that level of form. Luke Morris replacing inexperienced jockey will do chances no harm and I had it priced somewhere between 5/1 and 6/1.

1.45 Southwell: Moonraker (15/2 Ladbrokes) 1pt EW
Similar angle to Zapper Cass as is still bit below biggest rating it had when trained by Mick Channon and has been with Mick Appleby for around 6 months. Back down to mark it won off over C&D earlier this year and went off a shorter price for a more competitive race here last time when running a better race than finishing position suggests. 2lbs better off with Ornate at the ratings today and also gets the bonus of Luke Morris in saddle. Tendency to get behind early less of an issue in a smaller field here and still unexposed on surface, dead eight runners and top two take a sizable chunk out of market so looks a decent EW bet to me.

Mostly Harmless · 01-01-2019 2:07pm

2.20 Southwell: Saint Equiano (8/1 365, Boyles) 1.5pts Win
Fibresand debutant but running style looks tailor made for Southwell as likes to grind it out from the front, as was case at Ayr for most recent win. Is up against a few Southwell specialists but looks to have a potential class edge on rest of field and yard done OK with ones they have aimed at fibresand in recent times. Had it around 5/1 and looks a decent bet, nice shape for an EW bet but going win only on basis that is unproven on surface.

2.55 Southwell: Sooqaan (16/1 365) 1pt Win
Was a revelation on fibresand round this time last year, winning three in a short space of time. Not really recaptured that level of form since, but has fired a few warning shots that is coming back to something like best. Finishing second to Tagur, who reopposes today, on penultimate start and has big swing in weights with that one today. Bare figures suggest ran poorly last time out but was in the lead and on the bridle turning in and traded at odds on. Has developed a worrying tendency to find very little off the bridle so would make sense to lay off at a short price in running, but is proven on surface and looks to bee in decent nick and 16s looks plenty big enough on that basis alone.

3.30 Southwell: Luath (6/1 Hills) 2pts Win
Dropping back down the weights and is now on a mark that can definitely win off on historic form. Ran well to finish 3rd last time out on first run for several months. Previously won on second run back when had a break of a similar time period. Not the most resolute in a finish but Nicky Mackay knows the horse well and I made it clear fav at around 4/1 so just about sneaks in past threshold for a 2pt bet.

NaiveMelodies · 01-01-2019 3:23pm

Reasonable start to the New Year MH... well in.

The Mig · 01-01-2019 3:34pm

Flying MH

Mostly Harmless · 01-01-2019 5:43pm

Back on track with two decent winners.

+17pts on the day

Totals
Staked 120.00
Returned 165.50
P/L 45.50
ROI 37.92%

Mostly Harmless · 02-01-2019 1:55pm

1.10 Wolverhampton: Minuty (6/1 Generally) 1pt EW
Rare bet in a maiden for me, ran a decent race on debut at Kempton behind Poeta Brasiliero who has since gone on to win in handicap company, looked in need of the experience there having been slowly away and making good late gains. Should be wiser today and from a family of decent sprinters that trainer knows well. The fav looks very opposable at below 2/1 and not too many others that can be given a realistic chance, should be up to going very close with normal improvement from debut.

3.20 Wolverhampton: Secondo (20/1 365, Paddy) 2pts EW
Ran well in claiming company when 2nd last time out. Always a bit dodgy reading too much into those sort of races but a literal reading of form suggests that ran to mark of 72 at the very least and 6th placed horse has also come out and won on its next start, so probably was a good enough effort. Was runnning off marks in the mid 80s when trained by Joseph Tuite in 2017 and this is just about the weakest race he has ever contested. Long time since has won a race but hopeful that can build on that run last time and go close off career low mark, I had it priced bit shorter than 10/1 so looks a good bet.

Mostly Harmless · 02-01-2019 1:58pm

Will have at least one bet at Newcastle later, got a busy few hours now and will post after that.

STB. · 02-01-2019 5:47pm

I hate Newcastle with a passion.

However, I thought Rey Loopy had a chance in the 6.15. 11/2.

Haslam doesn't have many A/W horses and a slightly better jockey on board this time and a 7lb turn around with the favourite on the last run for a length and a half. There are others I would be fearful of not least Smuggler's Creek who has drifted out to 9/1.

Going Well OP, BTW Chevalier let me down for a right touch on a lucky 31 (and side by side accum) the other day. Always one only myself to blame as I hadnt seen your post!

Mostly Harmless · 02-01-2019 6:23pm

STB. wrote: »

I hate Newcastle with a passion.

However, I thought Rey Loopy had a chance in the 6.15. 11/2.

Haslam doesn't have many A/W horses and a slightly better jockey on board this time and a 7lb turn around with the favourite on the last run for a length and a half. There are others I would be fearful of not least Smuggler's Creek who has drifted out to 9/1.

Does look a fair shout at 11/2 but not looked at that race in much detail to be honest. Newcastle is my least favourite of all the AW in UK/IRE, horrible pace bias and always struggle to get handle on the form.

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