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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 599 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Villain wrote: »
    Yep but fast forward another week on the 06z and it shows a little glimpse of what we are hoping for :D

    https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/1081140468837216256?s=21
    Tentative signs of an OMEGA Block...…...:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    precious pink gold,my precious...

    h850t850eu.pngprectypeuktopo.pngprectypeuktopo.pngukmintemp.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    image.png.c073d29405c351a0c8d157d8cf1295e9.png

    This is broadly in line with how the UK Met Office are seeing things later on in January


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z back showing some colder uppers next week on the 12Z run. Not much precipitation showing up until next weekend.

    Todays run showing Ireland sandwiched between a LP and HP next weekend funnelling in strong cold NW'ly winds if it were to verify .

    tempresult_nhf5.gif

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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Just some news on the FV3 (GFSP) which was supposed to replace the current GFS operational run in January but hasn't so far due to the US Government Shutdown. It also has shown little improvement in terms of performance over the current operational run.

    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1081270401727193088


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  • Registered Users Posts: 721 ✭✭✭Defaulter1831


    gfs-0-384.png?18

    That's NICE!


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    The GFS's weakness is widely known to be caused by insufficient initialisation data - it has been demonstrated that if the data used by the ECM is substituted before a GFS run, the GFS performs substantially better.

    No amount of computer upgrades is going to help if the bottleneck is occurring further up the stream. The GFS needs more buoys, satellites, ships, balloons, etc - or alternatively, the weather agencies of the world could put proprietary profit aside and share their data with eachother for the good of humanity (I know, wishful thinking!) - but regardless, until that happens I don't expect to see huge differences in performance from one upgrade to the next.

    It's akin to buying bigger and bigger TV screens with higher and higher definition, but watching old 4:3 VHS tapes on them instead of upgrading to Blu Ray or 4K, and then wondering why these expensive new TVs aren't improving the picture quality by any significant amount.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭sdanseo



    That's NICE!


    Two chances of that coming off. None and none.

    But if it did.... :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 721 ✭✭✭Defaulter1831


    sdanseo wrote: »
    Two chances of that coming off. None and none.

    But if it did.... :D

    I'll hold you to that sdanseo as sleet turns to snow as you watch... Dancing With The Stars on Sunday eve 20th January ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The GFS's weakness is widely known to be caused by insufficient initialisation data - it has been demonstrated that if the data used by the ECM is substituted before a GFS run, the GFS performs substantially better.

    And resolution, both horizontal and vertical. ECM is down to just 9 km now with 167 vertical levels up to 0.01 hPa (~80 km). The GFS varies from 14 km to Day 10 and 27 km to Day 16, with only 64 vertical levels up to 0.25 hPa (~55 km). There's no real comparison.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,131 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Is it just me or is it hard to square MTs daily forecast of cold and possible snow mid month with this mornings models? Very underwhelming models for those wanting sneachta...... In the next 10 days uppers hardly go negative at any stage.


  • Registered Users Posts: 599 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Is it just me or is it hard to square MTs daily forecast of cold and possible snow mid month with this mornings models? Very underwhelming models for those wanting sneachta...... In the next 10 days uppers hardly go negative at any stage.

    Wouldn't look beyond 5 days. After that anything can happen. Morning runs are usual crap then evening runs are up grades. Its all because of the SSW. The models cant handle it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    Is it just me or is it hard to square MTs daily forecast of cold and possible snow mid month with this mornings models? Very underwhelming models for those wanting sneachta...... In the next 10 days uppers hardly go negative at any stage.

    Yep the models and some of the posts above.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Mt is using intuition and a lot more model experience than most of us and tying it in with his winter forecast
    He's posting more often on netweather than he used to


    https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1080604426870628353?s=09


  • Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    IMO i don't think we will have any prolonged cold spell this month With NAO expected to go positive for the next 2 weeks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 209 ✭✭Easterly Beasterly


    YanSno wrote: »
    IMO i don't think we will have any prolonged cold spell this month With NAO expected to go positive for the next 2 weeks.

    I think we will see something from about the 20th onwards! No science behind it, just a hunch. :)

    It's based on what I've seen on the week 3/4 long range ECM and the Met UK's cold outlook for the end of the month.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,078 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    You realise it's the 5th of January right?

    Some of the stages that people go through here with model watching are akin to bereavement!


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    YanSno wrote: »
    IMO i don't think we will have any prolonged cold spell this month With NAO expected to go positive for the next 2 weeks.


    That takes us to the 19th. If it trends positive for all the month then obviously you will have been right. As i keep saying until the UK Met Office abandon the idea of a cold spell towards the last week of January i remain hopeful. Also it maybe that troptical forcing along with a moderate el nino will favour blocking towards the back end of winter, irrespective of whether the effects of this SSW propgate down to the lower troposphere


  • Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    That takes us to the 19th. If it trends positive for all the month then obviously you will have been right. As i keep saying until the UK Met Office abandon the idea of a cold spell towards the last week of January i remain hopeful. Also it maybe that troptical forcing along with a moderate el nino will favour blocking towards the back end of winter, irrespective of whether the effects of this SSW propgate down to the lower troposphere

    In fairness the Met Office as far as I can tell were unusually confident in a cold spell unfolding in the New Year over a fortnight ago, it’s been moved backwards now until the end of January. Before that people were suggesting something just after Christmas

    There’s a pattern emerging; any cold is constantly being forecasted for 15-20 days ahead, never any closer. This has been the pattern at least since the middle of December. In fact it’s so bad that it is out of even long term model ranges, usually described as something that “will show up in the models soon”, when it has only ever cropped up sporadically in the long range.

    This winter so far has been frankly unremarkable if the current pattern prevails as it has been for over a month it is going to be mild dominated overall (although not the worst in recent years considering the bizarre run of non-winters we’ve been having recently). Considering the much promised background signals and the hype that this winter in particular has generated (more so than any winter I can remember for a while) it’s particularly disappointing.

    December and January in particular have been largely bland and non-wintery for many years now, which is also disappointing for me tbh, I’ve always felt them to be the best months to have snow in tbh seeing as it’s such a dark time of year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    I really don't understand the gloom around here.
    There's some great model watching to be had right now. Bags of potential.

    Here's the GFS. Highly unlikely to pan out exactly like this, but still

    tempresult_nkp9.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    YanSno wrote: »
    IMO i don't think we will have any prolonged cold spell this month With NAO expected to go positive for the next 2 weeks.

    [ Mod Snip ] ,it doesn’t exactly look overly positive.

    nao.sprd2.gif



    Mod Note: Keep it civil please.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    384 on the 12z

    gfsnh-0-372_xoq3.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    Villain wrote: »
    B] Mod Snip [/B, and it doesn’t exactly look overly positive.

    nao.sprd2.gif

    Thank you for posting the chart. Mean line looks positive close to neutral with AO negative More of a North westerly flow with HP sitting South / South West of Ireland


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    GFS has a cold westerly on the 16th bringing snow

    gfs-2-252_koc1.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 721 ✭✭✭Defaulter1831


    For me it's like many 5th January when it's settled and relatively mild. FI remains 5-7 days, approximately, and after that anything can happen, regardless of the SSW impacting.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    The GEFS Mean is certainly trending down in FI

    469636.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    gabeeg wrote: »
    GFS has a cold westerly on the 16th bringing snow

    If it snowed every time GFS suggested it, we'd have the coldest climate in Western Europe :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    The ECM is crappy


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Interesting 12Z ECM. HP sends cold air spinning from Iceland to France in a nice circular motion avoiding us completely.
    Then next weekend temps down to -4 at 850hpa, 4 degrees more or so needed there.

    In deep FI signs of what the GFS showed, cold incursion from due West...but that seems incredibly unlikely.

    I would post pics from Weather US but they have gone from no ads to adverts on steroids (even through adblock) over the last few months. Premium version is disappointingly expensive.

    tempresult_shs8.gif


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Just looking at that too sdanseo. Been showing that pattern for next weekend for a couple of runs now. Would imagine better chance of getting cold W / NW'lys than E'lys atm. Some strong winds showing up there too , would be very cold windchill and probably wintry on high ground , possible hail and thunder thrown into the mix also if it were to verify. The West best chance of snow on elevated ground perhaps. Those cold uppers usually get modified somewhat over the long fetch across the Atlantic but interesting nonetheless , could do with a bit of a shake up. Looks a lot different to what we have been experiencing the last couple of weeks for sure.


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This discussion has been closed.
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