Charts ( up to T120 ) Winter / Spring / Summer 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Oscar Bravo · 18-04-2019 6:51pm

Weekend looking fairly good now Meteorite ?

Meteorite58 · 18-04-2019 6:59pm

Looking a lot drier into the early days of next week with HP hanging on more blocking out the LP's and keeping the temperatures decent for the first couple days anyway next week . A big departure from what earlier models were saying, very big swing around in a relatively short time.

Meteorite58 · 18-04-2019 7:14pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Weekend looking fairly good now Meteorite ?

Looking much better than earlier runs for sure Oscar Bravo. Temps keeping up fairly well for many but looks cool along the E, SE and S coasts in a brisk onshore wind on Monday. In general cooler on coasts due to the wind travelling over the still relatively cold seas.

Could get quite foggy Sat and Sun am but should burn off in the morning.

Currently looks like the rain could be held well off the coast Sun into Mon but might get some light rain/ drizzle along Atlantic coasts on Monday. Depends how well the pressure holds. Some rain possible Tues but need to see how things go over the weekend.

A lot better then it was looking earlier in the week.

Meteorite58 · 18-04-2019 10:52pm

Well this has got to be one of the biggest changes by the ECM that I have seen over the space of one run, showing the front edging in along the Atlantic Sun into Mon and plenty of rain at that . I thought it surprising that it had backed off the front in the first place but this is the other extreme . An outlier ? Will see over the coming runs.

Still showing good temperatures across much of the country on Sunday

Meteorite58 · 18-04-2019 10:59pm

Again big change going into next week compared to earlier runs. Will see how these compare with tomorrows output.

Meteorite58 · 18-04-2019 11:08pm

GFS has it come ashore as well , not so the ARPEGE , ICON some rain edging in.

Meteorite58 · 19-04-2019 9:23am

ECM flipped back again keeping the front off the coast and holding largely dry into Mon apart from mist and drizzle or a bit of light rain along Arlantic coasts.

A lot of uncertainty even still. Met Eireann have written well about this in their forecast.

Quote Met Eireann :

' NATIONAL OUTLOOK

There is a high degree of uncertainty for western areas from late Sunday and Monday. This is due to an uncertainty in the positioning of a slow moving frontal system which is battling against the high pressure to the east. The exact location of the frontal system is crucial and its proximity to western coastal areas is very much in the balance at present. The latest indications suggest a little showery rain will tend to break out in western counties as the weekend goes on and temperatures falling back, with more general unsettled conditions developing during the next week'.

Meteorite58 · 22-04-2019 5:50pm

Models showing unsettled weather near our shores as the week progresses.

ECM for a couple of days was showing a LP move across Ireland , the last run showing it to the S of Ireland, GFS showing a LP bringing strong winds to Ireland Fri Into Sat as does the ARPEGE but different tracks. ICON showing a LP to the S like the ECM. They are all chopping and changing a bit so will take a couple of days yet to know with any certainty what way it will go.

Meteorite58 · 22-04-2019 8:03pm

Temperatures falling back from midweek.

Latest ECM 12Z showing a portion of a LP crossing Southern Ireland Fri / Sat, probably keeping the strongest winds offshore on this run anyway.

Meteorite58 · 22-04-2019 8:34pm

Mean wind speeds Fri / Sat.

That Low on the ECM 12Z run showing very strong winds just off the S coasts. Where is this one going to end up ?

Early days and no doubt more adjustments to come one way or the other .

The Jet for Fri to the S of Ireland helping the LP to deepen rapidly

Meteorite58 · 22-04-2019 10:58pm

ECM 12Z showing areas of the S, SE, E getting strong winds Fri /Sat. Heavy rain / possibly wintry precipitation would possibly cross the bulk of the country if this were to verify . All subject to change of course.

Meteorite58 · 22-04-2019 11:12pm

The kind of precipitation that the ECM 12Z is showing at the moment for Fri /Sat which could change depending on track and if this materializes . Currently showing cold uppers following the LP which could result in wintry precipitation, falling at night also. ECM showing temps dropping to just above freezing in places and showing it rise to between 8 and 11C during the day. Would think mostly sleety stuff, a few white capped mountains early Sat morning perhaps ?

Meteorite58 · 23-04-2019 10:24am

ECM showing a more S'ly track for the Low on Fri/ Sat keeping the strongest winds offshore ontheis run. Precipitation on this run not showing a wintry mix and not as heavy. Way to go yet. ARPEGE still looking very windy. ICON not as windy but showing the general track . American models have dropped it for now. UKMO seems to be taking the more S'ly track.

Meteorite58 · 23-04-2019 2:04pm

First time ICON showing the LP Fri /Sat more organised.

Meteorite58 · 23-04-2019 6:14pm

ARPEGE 12Z .

Tight gradient showing up on this run. Bit of a ways to go yet. ECM will be interesting this evening.

Meteorite58 · 23-04-2019 6:22pm

ICOB 12Z very similar to the ARPEGE.

Meteorite58 · 23-04-2019 8:13pm

ECM 12Z taking a similar track on Fri /Sat to the other models if somewhat more to the S.

Oscar Bravo · 24-04-2019 12:16pm

Status Yellow - Weather Advisory for Cork and Kerry

Potential for stormy conditions for the southwest later on Friday and early Saturday.

Valid: Friday 26 April 2019 18:00 to Saturday 27 April 2019 06:00

Issued: Wednesday 24 April 2019 12:00

Updated: Wednesday 24 April 2019 12:00

Oscar Bravo · 24-04-2019 12:18pm

From met eireann

After an unseasonably warm and settled Easter Weekend, our weather is looking very disturbed and unsettled as we head through the rest of this week, with potentially stormy conditions for the southwest of the country later on Friday, 26th April. With many trees now in leaf, this system has the potential to result in trees down leading to power outages and dangerous driving conditions, so stay up to date with the forecast over the coming days.

Met Éireann forecasters are monitoring a developing low pressure system currently tracking towards Newfoundland just off the northeastern Canadian coast, which is expected to engage with the Jet Stream and travel eastwards across the Atlantic over the next couple of days. Conditions look ripe for rapid deepening of the low to take place as it comes across the North Atlantic, and a storm system is likely to form at sea by Friday morning.

Present indications suggest the storm system will be starting to fill as it comes towards Ireland’s west and southwest coasts on Friday evening, however, the track of the system is still a little uncertain. We’ll obviously be firming up on the details over the coming 24 hours, but, for now, a wind advisory has been issued for counties Cork and Kerry.

Meteorite58 · 24-04-2019 2:01pm

Time to Start a dedicated thread eh Oscar Bravo .

Meteorite58 · 27-04-2019 7:06pm

Ridge up over the country tomorrow.The warmer day will be very welcome. Cloudy day as a weak warm front passes over , light precipitation , set to improve from the S, SW, W in the afternoon.

Villain · 01-05-2019 10:14am

Awful pity it is May and not January! Look at that NAO!!

naonao.sprd2_.gif

ECM

GFS

Meteorite58 · 05-05-2019 9:27pm

The deep LP staying well South of us Tues and Weds filling as it moves towards the UK . Sending in bands of rain, heaviest in the S but not too heavy in general it would seem, maybe up to 25mm in 24 hrs in parts of the S, but will need to check this nearer the time . No strong winds of note. Breezy along coasts for a time.

Meteorite58 · 06-05-2019 3:06pm

ECM 0Z showing it wetter than the last run for Tues night into Weds with parts of the S and SE getting 20 to 25 mm, 10 to 15mm for large areas of the Southern half of the country as the LP tracks to the S of the country sending in bands of rain and looks like a short wave depression developing with new areas of LP forming near the SE. Complex weather pattern.

Meteorite58 · 09-05-2019 11:19pm

As others have been saying ,temperatures not as high as had been originally shown on the models for the period of improved weather from Sunday. Some showers Saturday but dry for most and looks largely dry from Sunday to Tues atm. Best temps in the Western half of the country. Looks like a steady SE'ly flow from later Sunday which could be a bit breezy up along Atlantic coasts. Often pick up a couple of degrees with a Fohn effect from a SE'ly. Good weather perhaps for a few Lenticulars !

Meteorite58 · 10-05-2019 9:21pm

Pressure beginning to build , currently 1011.6 hPa in Kerry and Rising Rapidly

Meteorite58 · 24-05-2019 7:58pm

Quite warm in Munster tomorrow. ARPEGE showing the best temperatures by about a couple of degrees more than the ECM. Will all depend on if there are breaks in the cloud for any decent amount of time. In all looks quite cloudy tomorrow.

Meteorite58 · 31-05-2019 9:11pm

Bit of spread still on the wind strength for Sunday into Monday, ECM and ARPEGE showing the strongest . Strong enough for the time of year along the coasts.

Meteorite58 · 01-06-2019 12:18am

ARPEGE and ICON's latest output showing winds on Sunday looking more like a Yellow weather alert for Atlantic coastal counties, winds on coasts possibly gusting up around 90 Km/h, mean speeds 60Km/h + for a time. Still some uncertainty with this, models not all in agreement but in general have been showing this stronger over the last couple of runs.

Meteorite58 · 01-06-2019 10:37am

Latest ARPEGE . ECM similar keeping the strongest winds in the W, ICON bringing the strongest winds further S

Charts ( up to T120 ) Winter / Spring / Summer 2019 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Charts ( up to T120 ) Winter / Spring / Summer 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST