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Longshot Value at Cheltenham

  • 17-01-2019 8:45pm
    #1
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭


    Ill be starting with a decent Ante-post bet


«134567

Comments

  • #2
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Ryanair Chase

    The top of the market for this race is mad at the moment with most of them not showing up here for this race. Monalee and Politologue look the most likely favs on the day. I’ve had Coney Island in mind for this since his very good run at Leopardstown over Christmas and I just can’t get over his price at the moment. He is a very lightly raced horse with bags of potential and in my view this is his trip. He really ran well in the Savills chase when a poor jump at the last and perhaps a lack of staying power cost him what looked a likely place. He has had a lovely prep with only 2 runs this year both with promise and considering his novice form I think he is the forgotten horse in this market. He hasn’t been entered in the Gold Cup, so hopefully this is his target. The trainer’s horses always run well at the festival and I’m sure he will get there in top shape. If he does he will go of about 10/1 or lower. 33/1 NRNB is great price with no risk.

    2 Points EW 33/1 NRNB 365 ¼ place 1/5th place SKY


  • #3
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Aidan do u expect Footpad or UDS to go Ryanair?


  • #4
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    RivetingRoger wrote: »
    Aidan do u expect Footpad or UDS to go Ryanair?

    Lord knows . Not both for sure .


  • #5
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Lord knows . Not both for sure .

    Min favourite 😅


  • #6
    madmoose
    Registered Users Posts: 1,022 ✭✭✭madmoose


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Ryanair Chase

    The top of the market for this race is mad at the moment with most of them not showing up here for this race. Monalee and Politologue look the most likely favs on the day. I’ve had Coney Island in mind for this since his very good run at Leopardstown over Christmas and I just can’t get over his price at the moment. He is a very lightly raced horse with bags of potential and in my view this is his trip. He really ran well in the Savills chase when a poor jump at the last and perhaps a lack of staying power cost him what looked a likely place. He has had a lovely prep with only 2 runs this year both with promise and considering his novice form I think he is the forgotten horse in this market. He hasn’t been entered in the Gold Cup, so hopefully this is his target. The trainer’s horses always run well at the festival and I’m sure he will get there in top shape. If he does he will go of about 10/1 or lower. 33/1 NRNB is great price with no risk.

    2 Points EW 33/1 NRNB 365 ¼ place 1/5th place SKY

    He goes straight there trainer said the other day and i backed at 50/1 myself with Hills ew as it’s too big for an open race.


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  • #7
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    madmoose wrote: »
    He goes straight there trainer said the other day and i backed at 50/1 myself with Hills ew as it’s too big for an open race.

    Lovely figured that . Goes off 12-16/1 at most .


  • #8
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Maybe not a double figure, but I think the 7/1 available on faugheen in the stayers NRNB is a great bet
    Looked like he was shaping well behind the wondermare the last day till he tipped up. Nothing in that race should scare connections. Can Faugheen beat Penhill? Course he can! Can faugheen beat Supa over 3m? Course he bloody can!
    His run at Punchestown over the trip was a demolition job.

    Unless AJ goes Stayers, there is nothing to fear, and at 7/1 nrnb, I honestly think its a decent bet

    (10/1 in boyles, but not nrnb)


  • #9
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    May be doing a Champion Hurdle Preview Podcast this week. Anyone like to contribute?


    Questions, Left Field Tips or ideas about the race.


  • #10
    carq
    Registered Users Posts: 854 ✭✭✭carq


    aidankkk wrote: »
    May be doing a Champion Hurdle Preview Podcast this week. Anyone like to contribute?


    Questions, Left Field Tips or ideas about the race.

    Labaik !!?
    Sommerville boy back after injury at a big price ?


  • #11
    NaiveMelodies
    Registered Users Posts: 3,172 ✭✭✭NaiveMelodies


    aidankkk wrote: »
    May be doing a Champion Hurdle Preview Podcast this week. Anyone like to contribute?


    Questions, Left Field Tips or ideas about the race.

    How far will Espoir D'Allen win by?

    Seriously though, if he runs well in Naas this weekend, do you/the panel think that connections will run him in the CH? Would it be foolish not too?

    The Champion Hurdle looks like it could have a poorer quality field than the Mares Hurdle at this stage. Discuss...

    Tombstone came 4th it a sensational Supreme. Given his much improved run LTO, is 100/1 a slight oversight?


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  • #12
    The Mig
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭The Mig


    aidankkk wrote: »
    May be doing a Champion Hurdle Preview Podcast this week. Anyone like to contribute?


    Questions, Left Field Tips or ideas about the race.
    He's out for the season Aidan :pac:


    Best of luck with it in all seriousness though. How far does Blow by Blow win the 4 miler by?


  • #13
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    The Mig wrote: »
    He's out for the season Aidan :pac:


    Best of luck with it in all seriousness though. How far does Blow by Blow win the 4 miler by?

    Miles I'd say . Do like the swc horse as well .


  • #14
    Earendil
    Registered Users Posts: 809 ✭✭✭Earendil


    aidankkk wrote: »
    May be doing a Champion Hurdle Preview Podcast this week. Anyone like to contribute?


    Questions, Left Field Tips or ideas about the race.

    What's the name of the Podcast Aidan? I mean if you done some before.


  • #15
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Earendil wrote: »
    What's the name of the Podcast Aidan? I mean if you done some before.

    Nope never did one . It'll be for the laugh mainly . Probably be the least professional podcast , with Kilkenny bog accent .

    Should be called longshotvalue cheltenham preview or something .

    Intro sorted hopefully Wicklow brace commentary with music .


  • #16
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Sounds excellent!!!!
    Link us up Aidan!!

    (Wanna know where ye think Footpad should and will run)


  • #17
    idnkph
    Registered Users Posts: 669 ✭✭✭idnkph


    Would love to listen. Hope it goes good for you.


  • #18
    NaiveMelodies
    Registered Users Posts: 3,172 ✭✭✭NaiveMelodies


    Can you please get Sting on the panel?


  • #19
    The Mig
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭The Mig


    Skype him in from the villa in the south of France


  • #20
    Gavin "shels"
    Registered Users Posts: 17,962 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    NaiveMelodies wrote: »
    Can you please get Sting on the panel?

    Do the recording of him once it's been recorded...


  • #21
    BumperD
    Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Miles I'd say . Do like the swc horse as well .

    BBB rsa, think that 4 miler is a lot more competitive than you think


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  • #22
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Impulsive Star for the 4 Miler
    still 12/1 AP


  • #23
    Bangor Billy
    Registered Users Posts: 335 ✭✭Bangor Billy


    Will we get your podcast this side of the pond Aiden?


  • #24
    BumperD
    Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    NaiveMelodies wrote: »
    Can you please get Sting on the panel?

    He’s already booked for a Cheltenham Preview for the day after the festival ends.


  • #25
    Motivator
    Registered Users Posts: 2,739 ✭✭✭Motivator


    BumperD wrote: »
    BBB rsa, think that 4 miler is a lot more competitive than you think

    Blow By Blow lacks gears over fences for an RSA I think. The 4 miler looks right up his street.


  • #26
    The Mig
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭The Mig


    BumperD wrote: »
    BBB rsa, think that 4 miler is a lot more competitive than you think
    They have Delta Work for that. BBB looks slow as a boat. I think OK Corral will go RSA


  • #27
    Maxbing
    Registered Users Posts: 7 ✭Maxbing


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Ill be starting with a decent Ante-post bet
    Testing


  • #28
    idnkph
    Registered Users Posts: 669 ✭✭✭idnkph


    Motivator wrote:
    Blow By Blow lacks gears over fences for an RSA I think. The 4 miler looks right up his street.


    What day is the 4 miler?


  • #29
    sitkaspruce
    Registered Users Posts: 278 ✭✭sitkaspruce


    Posh Trish in the mares novice hurdle


  • #30
    BumperD
    Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    The Mig wrote: »
    They have Delta Work for that. BBB looks slow as a boat. I think OK Corral will go RSA

    Ok coral 16/1 for rsa, 7/2 fav for 4 miler after lumps of money in last 10 days. That should tell you it has really outside chance of going RSAjockey booking on ok corrals last run also strong indicator 4 miler is the target, things can change but just look at the market moves, someone knows


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  • #31
    BumperD
    Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    idnkph wrote: »
    What day is the 4 miler?

    Day 1 Tuesday


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