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Longshot Value at Cheltenham

24567

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    Motivator wrote: »
    Blow By Blow lacks gears over fences for an RSA I think. The 4 miler looks right up his street.

    He is slow but you know, it’s an awful slog of a race, just won’t be shocked if he rocks up in it


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    I’m going to forgive Sam Spinner his last 2 runs and give him a chance here at a price that’s worth the gamble. The top of the market looks weak apart from Black Ops. 14/1 is too big and if he does win 33/1 is massive in the Stayers Hurdle.


    ½ Point win 33/1 NRNB Stayers 365


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,645 ✭✭✭paddy no 11


    Is the jockey up to it Aidan? The taking on lil rock today was hardly a help, surely an even gallop behind him was required

    Would 2m 4 be better for him ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Is the jockey up to it Aidan? The taking on lil rock today was hardly a help, surely an even gallop behind him was required

    Would 2m 4 be better for him ?

    He ran well , I was amazed he stayed on fir 4th . He'd have to get his own way in front . Fav will be very hard to beat .


  • Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭dicky dunne


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Ryanair Chase

    The top of the market for this race is mad at the moment with most of them not showing up here for this race. Monalee and Politologue look the most likely favs on the day. I’ve had Coney Island in mind for this since his very good run at Leopardstown over Christmas and I just can’t get over his price at the moment. He is a very lightly raced horse with bags of potential and in my view this is his trip. He really ran well in the Savills chase when a poor jump at the last and perhaps a lack of staying power cost him what looked a likely place. He has had a lovely prep with only 2 runs this year both with promise and considering his novice form I think he is the forgotten horse in this market. He hasn’t been entered in the Gold Cup, so hopefully this is his target. The trainer’s horses always run well at the festival and I’m sure he will get there in top shape. If he does he will go of about 10/1 or lower. 33/1 NRNB is great price with no risk.

    2 Points EW 33/1 NRNB 365 ¼ place 1/5th place SKY

    Harty quite bullish about him today after Advantage Point won, plan has always been to head straight to the Ryanair, he's actually drifted to 40/1 with 365....absolutely stonewall crazy price! horse has so much potential


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  • Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭dicky dunne


    One that i keep backing on Betfair Exchange is The Big Bite for the supreme novice, the horse is still a big baby and tends to run green but has bags of talent, a winner of 4 of his 6 races although beaten in his two toughest test id still have high hopes for this lad, went off 2nd fav in the novice hurdle won by Mister Fisher at kempton over Christmas, again ran very green for most of it and a mistake 2 or 3 out scuppered his chances, Tom George has said since that if they were to line up again he see's no reason as to why he cant overturn the form, Mister Fisher (albeit maybe not a massive supreme player) is currently priced top price 14/1 lowest price 9/1 while The Big Bite can be got @ 75.0+ on Betfair Exchange or 66/1 on their Sportbook


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,022 ✭✭✭madmoose


    Western Ryder at 40/1 for the County is one i have backed with one firm, i’m sure that will be 20/1 on the day, just had an ew bet on it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Backing Jezki at 25/1 ew for the County Hurdle
    One last hurrah


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Champion Bumper

    Now is as good a time as any to back a 20/1 shot that will go of about 8/1 . Meticulous is gradually improving and was on the way to running down the fav for this race last time out. I think he will love the hill here and there is just no chance he goes off at anything like this price. If he does we can just keep backing it.

    2 Points win NRBD20/1 paddy/vc


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate

    I’ve had Romain De Senam in mind for one of these races all year, and nothing has gone right for him. He has some smart form around here and also at the festival. On any kind of half decent ground he’ll be sure to get competitive here of his current mark. He’s s decent jumper, and this is his trip. I’m convinced he’ll have this race in his mind all this year and 33/1 is huge.

    2 Points EW NRNB Paddy/hills 33/1 5 place’s


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Arkle

    Hardline
    is one I had in mind for JLT but it appears this is his most likely race, and considering his form with Us and Them (who I also really rate here); he could well have some of the best 2 mile form ,when slamming him by 10 lengths. His run last time can be ignored as he was being minded on the ground and when the Jockey realized he had loads of horse left he made a huge amount of ground to be 3rd. 25/1 is looking massive on collateral form.

    2 Points win 25/1 nrnb 365/sky


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Mares Hurdle

    We’re going to take advantage of this market before everything changes shortly. I think Benie Des Dieux is over-rated on last year’s win, given Apples Jade wasn’t in form and my 66/1 selection nearly beat her. She looks to me to need a softer surface and may well get outpaced on good ground. My feeling is Limini’s form the year before is much stronger and she has been running well this year. She wasn’t far behind Supasunday in the Hattons Grace and then ran well behind Percy last time out . She also has a number of good runs on the flat this year. If Laurina doesn’t go here I think she could well be in a 2 horses race, and the other one hasn’t seen the racecourse yet. Well play it safe and have a saver on Laurina just in case.

    It’s not out of the question that Limini goes of Fav here at something like 7/4 (as its possible none of the ones above her in the betting are here at all) but she really can’t go off much bigger than 8/1 no matter who turns up.

    2 Points win 8/1 365 NRNB Limini

    ½ Point win 4/1 Laurina hills/betfair Ante-post


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Good thyne Tara could be the ew bet in the mares. Interesting to see if missy tata or sassy diva end up here

    That said I agree with Aidan. Limini for me too


  • Registered Users Posts: 225 ✭✭Morleystreet


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate

    I’ve had Romain De Senam in mind for one of these races all year, and nothing has gone right for him. He has some smart form around here and also at the festival. On any kind of half decent ground he’ll be sure to get competitive here of his current mark. He’s s decent jumper, and this is his trip. I’m convinced he’ll have this race in his mind all this year and 33/1 is huge.

    2 Points EW NRNB Paddy/hills 33/1 5 place’s

    I see he running at kempton tomorrow Aidan , 16-1. Though I like Walt in that race.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    I see he running at kempton tomorrow Aidan , 16-1. Though I like Walt in that race.

    Tipped him at 20/1 EW for this . He'llgo close here and that looks value to me.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    What u think of Jezki in the County Aidan?
    25/1 now


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭Paul_Mc1988


    I see he running at kempton tomorrow Aidan , 16-1. Though I like Walt in that race.

    Great call on walt. Came in a 14/1.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    JLT

    I just have to have a bet here on Hardline as well. I would have originally thought he would go here and this looks a weak race. Well get our money back if he doesn’t run in the Arkle and I just can’t see him going of bigger than 8/1 if he lies up here. In addition he looks the most likely winner of this race if he does go for it. 16/1 nrnb is well worth a bet now.

    2 Points win 16/1 nrnb 365


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    What u think of Jezki in the County Aidan?
    25/1 now

    I fully expect there to be collection on the Friday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,172 ✭✭✭NaiveMelodies


    aidankkk wrote: »
    I fully expect there to be collection on the Friday.

    Down to 150, reckon the English handicapper can justify adding to that?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Down to 150, reckon the English handicapper can justify adding to that?

    I doubt it when he has run in uk loads. Not more than 1-2 lbs anyway. He wont be out of the 5, but on the day could be a big price. Id prefer if he didn't lead and just sat handy and picked em off up the hill. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    aidankkk wrote: »
    I doubt it when he has run in uk loads. Not more than 1-2 lbs anyway. He wont be out of the 5, but on the day could be a big price. Id prefer if he didn't lead and just sat handy and picked em off up the hill. :D

    Currently 25/1
    Gotta get some of that


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    aidankkk wrote: »
    I doubt it when he has run in uk loads. Not more than 1-2 lbs anyway. He wont be out of the 5, but on the day could be a big price. Id prefer if he didn't lead and just sat handy and picked em off up the hill. :D

    I think jezki has been royally screwed at 155 . Up 10 lbs for his second last time out . Not pocket talk because I haven't backed him yet but it looks tough now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    aidankkk wrote: »
    I think jezki has been royally screwed at 155 . Up 10 lbs for his second last time out . Not pocket talk because I haven't backed him yet but it looks tough now.

    Ah balls :mad:


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,958 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    Looks a tough ask for him alright.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Murdered (to a lesser extent) Ivanovic also!


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Yes, I've backed Ivanovich at 33s for the county. It's a disproportionate hike compared to Uradel. Jezki is worse though.

    Both hammered


  • Registered Users Posts: 627 ✭✭✭zpehtsfd


    Slattsy wrote: »
    Murdered (to a lesser extent) Ivanovic also!

    Handicapper actually gave him an extra pound even though he was behind Jezki last time out. :mad:


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Se Mo Laoch at 20/1 for the Kim Muir looks a good price to me


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Nulty wrote: »
    Yes, I've backed Ivanovich at 33s for the county. It's a disproportionate hike compared to Uradel. Jezki is worse though.

    Both hammered

    Jezki just isn't a fair rise , as in fairness to the horse he had run well in graded races this year and wasn't hiding or playing silly buggers .

    Feckit it will deserve a bigger cheer when he wins


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