Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

EdgeCase · 02-02-2019 1:23pm

Folkstonian wrote: »

How old are you? It’s never too late to make even a big jump like that.

My sister lives in Singapore now, but was in Melbourne for a few years beforehand, she said there were loads of people who were 20 to 25 years into their career at home who had taken the leap and slotted in seamlessly to Aussie life

I'm not likely to fit the high demand skills tbh. I made some very stupid career choices into public policy related stuff. So I'm pretty much limited to EU despite having a masters and so on. I should have done something more sensible but that's life.

If I were doing it again I'd have stuck with skills that were in high demand internationally, not just going with area that I'm interested in.

Enzokk · 02-02-2019 1:27pm

Folkstonian wrote: »

That’s deeply unsettling though. Cancelling Brexit because of the threat of a return to violence would be bending to the will of terrorists.

Should we really allow democratic decisions to be held hostage by armed nutters who don’t like the outcome of this vote, or any future vote?

Better to identify, arrest and prosecute anyone who is inclined to use violent tactics to thwart Brexit

The only people who have openly threatened violence is Leavers. The talk about a return to violence is not because anyone is threatening it, but because the threat is already there without anyone having to say it. PSNI Chiefs keep warning about how hard they are working to ensure there aren't any flash points that could lead to violence. This has always been true, the Troubles, but after 1998 it has been in the background.

Isn't it interesting that you say that the threat of violence should not be used as a means for one side to get its way, and yet we have the following stories from politicians and what they have threatened.

Nigel Farage would 'pick up a rifle' if Brexit is not delivered

Addressing an audience at a £63 a head event in Southampton on Sunday, the former Ukip leader said that if Brexit was not delivered properly, "there will be widespread public anger in this country on a scale and in a way we have never seen before."

He added: "If that happens, much as I'm enjoying myself... I enjoy my trips to the States with Trump and the White House and everything else. I'm enjoying my life.

"But if they don't deliver this Brexit that I spent 25 years of my life working for, then I will be forced to don khaki, pick up a rifle and head for the front lines."

Civil unrest? Violence on UK streets? Let’s stop this reckless language

Last week, the Sun ran an editorial saying: “Do you think Brits are too reserved for civil disorder? Cast your mind back to the riots of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990 or 2011. Or the febrile atmosphere of the referendum, during which Jo Cox MP was heartbreakingly murdered. What a tsunami of rage politicians would unleash.”

Such reckless language is not confined to tabloid newspapers. This weekend, I listened to Iain Duncan Smith, a former cabinet minister and leader of the Conservative party, use almost identical language, telling the BBC: “You think the country’s divided right now, wait until you hold that second referendum. There’s a very large chunk of people who will feel utterly betrayed and very angry and I just caution, look across the Channel – we are not that far away from that kind of process happening.”

Jeremy Hunt, who now occupies the post I once held as foreign secretary, said recently that he “wouldn’t rule out real social instability in this country”, while even Theresa May has been at it, telling the Sunday papers about her “fear … that we would see greater division”.

It may seem like semantics but only one side is threatening violence and lets not forget that only one side had one of its supporters murder a politician. The threats are from the right but they are a minority that could be contained by sheer numbers.

Irishmale0399 · 02-02-2019 1:27pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Well that is if our backs are to the wall.

The EU need to get back to the table with them and throw them a bone to get a deal done for our sake.

Sorry but the EU shouldnt be throwing them a bone for anything, TM negotiated the WA which entaled the backstop. Why should the EU now give them something to hide her and her governments mistakes.

TM and the HoC should either:
1. Agree to the WA as TM agreed in Brussels
2. Accept a hard Brexit, get on with it and live with the consequences which have been no secret for the last 2 years.
3. Stop the whole thing and remain

Why should the EU do anything to help a UK government who dont know what they want. Was it the EU that sent TM and her government to Brussels??

Personally I feel the UK have had the plan all along to use the NI situation as a barganing tool. That idea has gone wrong because the Leo and the EU are standing together. The sooner people realise the UK government have spent 2 years doing deals with the EU the better......

EdgeCase · 02-02-2019 1:29pm

Saying you will pick up a rifle should result in a visit from the police. It would if you were any other organisation in the UK. Although that article is from 2017.

joeysoap · 02-02-2019 1:37pm

If the following is true ( I have no reason to doubt it)

Have you ever seen the chart of "poorest regions in Northern Europe" - 9 of 10 of them are in the UK - and that if with EU membership protecting the regions and strengthening their economy.

Why is the UK contribution are a high as they is ( even after the rebate)?

Enzokk · 02-02-2019 1:37pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Well that is if our backs are to the wall.

The EU need to get back to the table with them and throw them a bone to get a deal done for our sake.

Lots of articles has pointed out that much of the WA is what the UK side negotiated. This is not a case where the EU slapped the deal on the table and strong armed the UK into taking it. They listened to what the UK side said they wanted and this deal is what they agreed could be offered. The UK wanted an all UK customs union and the EU gave it to them.

Now you want the EU to give them even more? Why not access to the single market while not needing to accept any of the four freedoms? That is all that can be offered that they will be happy with and that will solve all of the problems with the border.

While we are at it, why not have a customs union but the UK can negotiate their own trade deals? That would also negate the need for a border. Those are the items they want.

CelticRambler · 02-02-2019 1:40pm

joeysoap wrote: »

If the following is true ( I have no reason to doubt it)

Have you ever seen the chart of "poorest regions in Northern Europe" - 9 of 10 of them are in the UK

It's not true: In 2016, the UK had six of the 10 regions with the lowest GDP per person, from a group of nearby countries.

EdgeCase · 02-02-2019 1:47pm

Enzokk wrote: »

Lots of articles has pointed out that much of the WA is what the UK side negotiated. This is not a case where the EU slapped the deal on the table and strong armed the UK into taking it. They listened to what the UK side said they wanted and this deal is what they agreed could be offered. The UK wanted an all UK customs union and the EU gave it to them.

Now you want the EU to give them even more? Why not access to the single market while not needing to accept any of the four freedoms? That is all that can be offered that they will be happy with and that will solve all of the problems with the border.

While we are at it, why not have a customs union but the UK can negotiate their own trade deals? That would also negate the need for a border. Those are the items they want.

You're assuming that you're negotiating with rational actors though.

Nothing about how the UK Government is negotiating is particularly consistent or rational. It's nationalism and the direction turns on the head of a pin.

They agreed the backstop because they thought they could get away with not actually honouring it. They just said whatever they felt was expedient at the time so they could get on to the trade deal bit.

They negotiate in bad faith with the aim of pulling a fast one. It's all about trying to somehow force, bully or manipulate. None of it is about straightforward, honest brokering of a deal.

They also assume that the EU side is doing the same and apply all sorts of imagined motives that are actually just a sad reflection of their own thought processes.

briany · 02-02-2019 1:59pm

Get Labour around the table (which has already begun to happen, finally) and give them certain guarantees. Bite the bullet and pledge to the SNP an opportunity to hold another indy ref within 5 years of 29/03/2019. Even talk to Plaid Cymru since Wales was the only other majority Brexit-voting nation of the UK. Get all these in broad agreement and you have an opportunity to not only negate the DUP vote, but that of the Conservative hardliners as well.

Leroy42 · 02-02-2019 2:03pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote:

So rather than getting the UK to abide by an internationally recognised peace agreement they want Ireland to actively break the rules of the EU.

Well that is if our backs are to the wall.

The EU need to get back to the table with them and throw them a bone to get a deal done for our sake.

Great idea. What is this bone that should be given?

Irishmale0399 · 02-02-2019 2:05pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

Great idea. What is this bone that should be given?

Sure we could give them whatever they want....Great Jolly Bunch those HoC lads and lassies.

Wouldnt and shouldnt be giving them a thing. Let them crash out and see what they had with the EU covering their backs.

Water John · 02-02-2019 2:20pm

The EU already conceded on making the Backstop UK wide not NI only. That was a big give. The UK said thanks very much, we'll pocket that, now we want more.

J Mysterio · 02-02-2019 2:26pm

Folkstonian wrote: »

That’s deeply unsettling though. Cancelling Brexit because of the threat of a return to violence would be bending to the will of terrorists.

Should we really allow democratic decisions to be held hostage by armed nutters who don’t like the outcome of this vote, or any future vote?

This argument that 'we had a vote, it has to be respected' is such bullshıt. Do you recognise that there were democratic decisions and 'votes' previous to this? Should they not be respected? Should the GFA not be respected?

You say 'we should not be held hostage by terrorists' but it is not only the 'terrorists' who are upset, its virtually the entire country next door and a large part of the UK. It's not about being held hostage, but recognising that there is a hard won peace that has been achieved by... a democratic vote. The fact that the UK did not take care to recognise the complexity of the situation before going headfirst into the referendum is part of the problem. You cannot say 'respect our democratic vote' when you show zero respect to all who it affects and in turn run roughshod over previous democratic votes.

Its this type of British arrogance that marginalizes and disenfranchises people who don't agree which produces terrorists.

The above is without consideration to the quality of your democratic vote (lies, cheating, lack of information) and the question of what mandate this advisory referendum actually provided.

Well, I don't respect your vote. I think it was incredibly stupid, incredibly badly run and was hijacked by a right wing elite who will ruin your country and poses a grave threat to ours.

Enzokk · 02-02-2019 2:39pm

EdgeCase wrote: »

You're assuming that you're negotiating with rational actors though.

Nothing about how the UK Government is negotiating is particularly consistent or rational. It's nationalism and the direction turns on the head of a pin.

They agreed the backstop because they thought they could get away with not actually honouring it. They just said whatever they felt was expedient at the time so they could get on to the trade deal bit.

They negotiate in bad faith with the aim of pulling a fast one. It's all about trying to somehow force, bully or manipulate. None of it is about straightforward, honest brokering of a deal.

They also assume that the EU side is doing the same and apply all sorts of imagined motives that are actually just a sad reflection of their own thought processes.

I think that the EU will still trust May and her word, they understand politics and she is doing what she can to get the deal through. I think they know she wouldn't waste the time of Olly Robbins to negotiate the deal. They are all politicians at the end of the day and understand the realities of the job.

However if she now turns her back on what she negotiated and there is a no deal then the trust is broken in the future talks. If she manages to somehow scare the HoC to vote for the deal, which is surely all she is trying to do now while keeping the Tories from splitting, then they will not really care what she did or said as long as it gets her deal through.

briany wrote: »

Get Labour around the table (which has already begun to happen, finally) and give them certain guarantees. Bite the bullet and pledge to the SNP an opportunity to hold another indy ref within 5 years of 29/03/2019. Even talk to Plaid Cymru since Wales was the only other majority Brexit-voting nation of the UK. Get all these in broad agreement and you have an opportunity to not only negate the DUP vote, but that of the Conservative hardliners as well.

Labour would do well to stay as far away as they can from Brexit. Once May has made it clear she is trying to only get her deal and get it through without needing the votes or input of other parties they have no obligation to make it easy for her. The time has in any case passed for that as there is nothing that can be added to the WA unless she drops her red lines.

May is in an impossible position. She cannot get cross party support for Brexit because that will fracture the Conservatives. She cannot get a soft Brexit through because the DUP and ERG will vote against it and she cannot get a hard Brexit through as there are enough Tory rebels to vote that down.

But don't feel sorry for her, she made it hard for herself by calling that election that wasn't necessary. She made it impossible for herself.

Strazdas · 02-02-2019 2:41pm

J Mysterio wrote: »

This argument that 'we had a vote, it has to be respected' is such bullshıt. Do you recognise that there were democratic decisions and 'votes' previous to this? Should they not be respected? Should the GFA not be respected?

You say 'we should not be held hostage by terrorists' but it is not only the 'terrorists' who are upset, its virtually the entire country next door and a large part of the UK. It's not about being held hostage, but recognising that there is a hard won peace that has been achieved by... a democratic vote. The fact that the UK did not take care to recognise the complexity of the situation before going headfirst into the referendum is part of the problem. You cannot say 'respect our democratic vote' when you show zero respect to all who it affects and in turn run roughshod over previous democratic votes.

Its this type of British arrogance that marginalizes and disenfranchises people who don't agree which produces terrorists.

The above is without consideration to the quality of your democratic vote (lies, cheating, lack of information) and the question of what mandate this advisory referendum actually provided.

Well, I don't respect your vote. I think it was incredibly stupid, incredibly badly run and was hijacked by a right wing elite who will ruin your country and poses a grave threat to ours.

Totally agree. The idea of "respecting the result of the vote" normally applies to general elections and referendums where things passed off smoothly and fairly and there was no hint of criminality or controversy (even if the result was not a very popular one).

The Brexit referendum is probably the most controversial and contested referendum result in European history, with strong suggestions of criminality, outside interference, not to mention the downright lies of the winning side and their numerous supporters in the media. The referendum was badly worded and was held on something that is proving to be virtually unimplementable.

EdgeCase · 02-02-2019 2:43pm

I think they did at first but they assumed she had insufficient mandate to negotiate anything.

That was brought up after the last UK general election.

She's burnt though any trust she had over the last few weeks in particular.

The comments I've heard are comparing the Tories to Marine le Pen's party, so it's hardly an environment of trust.

Capt'n Midnight · 02-02-2019 2:45pm

briany wrote: »

Get Labour around the table (which has already begun to happen, finally) and give them certain guarantees. Bite the bullet and pledge to the SNP an opportunity to hold another indy ref within 5 years of 29/03/2019. Even talk to Plaid Cymru since Wales was the only other majority Brexit-voting nation of the UK. Get all these in broad agreement and you have an opportunity to not only negate the DUP vote, but that of the Conservative hardliners as well.

What ?

The key issue is the unity of the party.

Basic carrot and stick stuff.

The thing the Tories especially likes of the ERG and JRM and Boris & Co. fear most is a Labour government. And least because it would tax them personally.

But May can't use that very real threat to force her own party to behave.
Because that's crazy talk.

Instead she's going down the carrot route, bespoke unicorns all round.
And everyone knows she has no carrots and won't be getting any.

Anthracite · 02-02-2019 2:48pm

Folkstonian wrote: »

That’s deeply unsettling though. Cancelling Brexit because of the threat of a return to violence would be bending to the will of terrorists.

Should we really allow democratic decisions to be held hostage by armed nutters who don’t like the outcome of this vote, or any future vote?

Better to identify, arrest and prosecute anyone who is inclined to use violent tactics to thwart Brexit

But that 'deeply unsettling' thing is exactly why the British left us with a divided island in the first place - violence was promised by extremists in North. So having done it once and created a huge mess, it seems odd now to reverse course on that principle and cause another.

Kermit.de.frog · 02-02-2019 2:51pm

UK has already got backstop concessions.

There should be no more. There comes a point where every country has to stand up and be counted.

We should not let the UK walk all over us. Either there is benefits to EU membership or there isn't.

I think we should take it to no deal if Britain insists on reneging on it's commitments.

It may be tough on some sectors for a while but what is the point of EU membership if we just continue on as Britain's doormat?

Time to be counted and show them things have changed.

Anthracite · 02-02-2019 2:53pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Well that is if our backs are to the wall.

The EU need to get back to the table with them and throw them a bone to get a deal done for our sake.

The EU has been throwing entire carcasses at them, but the UK government has suddenly decided it is vegan and the EU's offerings are a huge insult.

ThePanjandrum · 02-02-2019 3:01pm

Strazdas wrote: »

The Brexit referendum is probably the most controversial and contested referendum result in European history, with strong suggestions of criminality, outside interference, not to mention the downright lies of the winning side and their numerous supporters in the media. The referendum was badly worded and was held on something that is proving to be virtually unimplementable.

We fought the Establishment and the Establishment lost.

briany · 02-02-2019 3:11pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

What ?

The key issue is the unity of the party.

Basic carrot and stick stuff.

The thing the Tories especially likes of the ERG and JRM and Boris & Co. fear most is a Labour government. And least because it would tax them personally.

But May can't use that very real threat to force her own party to behave.
Because that's crazy talk.

Instead she's going down the carrot route, bespoke unicorns all round.
And everyone knows she has no carrots and won't be getting any.

The whole Brexit fiasco is coming to the point where every right-thinking MP in the HoC will have to momentarily put party politics aside. If they do not do that, they're looking at very real existential issues for the whole of the UK, and the current crop of politicians will be judged by history as having sacrificed the UK over some petty squabbling.

May's already held talks with Corbyn. We can see this as a threat to the ERG types that they must fall in line or let Labour have a real say in the final deal, or that she really is prepared to to enter into a de facto unity government in order to avert the impending crisis facing the UK.

Anthracite · 02-02-2019 3:11pm

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

We fought the Establishment and the Establishment lost.

Ah yes - noted anti-establishment figures like Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Duncan-Smith, Redwood...

If anything, things are taking a turn towards a much older, more deeply entrenched establishment.

Strazdas · 02-02-2019 3:15pm

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

We fought the Establishment and the Establishment lost.

If it was simply the case that the result was "unpopular", that would be fine.

No other referendum in Europe has ever had allegations of criminality, outside interference by other countries and the police investigating the campaign groups and their spiv like millionaire backers who won (underway as we speak).

Professor Moriarty · 02-02-2019 3:15pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK has already got backstop concessions.

There should be no more. There comes a point where every country has to stand up and be counted.

We should not let the UK walk all over us. Either there is benefits to EU membership or there isn't.

I think we should take it to no deal if Britain insists on reneging on it's commitments.

It may be tough on some sectors for a while but what is the point of EU membership if we just continue on as Britain's doormat?

Time to be counted and show them things have changed.

Each and every sector should be diversifying away from Britain. They've shown that they are unable to govern themselves and to have a virulent streak of xenophobic eurosceptism. These flaws won't go away anytime soon so, wherever possible, businesses need to find new markets. Ditto importers. Britain is simply too unstable and directionless.

Professor Moriarty · 02-02-2019 3:16pm

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

We fought the Establishment and the Establishment lost.

This isn't a video game. This is real life with real countries and real people.

An Ciarraioch · 02-02-2019 3:21pm

Various newspapers suggest May could move towards offering a permanent customs union if/when she gets nowhere next week - would there be an argument for taking that, and finalising arrangements on regulatory alignment during the transition period?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-latest-whitehall-officials-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-eu-customs-union-a8759226.html

briany · 02-02-2019 3:24pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Various newspapers suggest May could move towards offering a permanent customs union if/when she gets nowhere next week - would there be an argument for taking that, and finalising arrangements on regulatory alignment during the transition period?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-latest-whitehall-officials-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-eu-customs-union-a8759226.html

Could work as a concession to Labour, but the EU will still want extra SM rules applied to NI, if only on the basis that another solution could be found later on.

02-02-2019 3:24pm

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

We fought the Establishment and the Establishment lost.

Quite the Pyrrhic victory, but sure that's what happens with idealism.

Professor Moriarty · 02-02-2019 3:26pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Various newspapers suggest May could move towards offering a permanent customs union if/when she gets nowhere next week - would there be an argument for taking that, and finalising arrangements on regulatory alignment during the transition period?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-latest-whitehall-officials-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-eu-customs-union-a8759226.html

The Brexiteers would go bananas. Bendy bananas, of course.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Comments