Is it a good time to buy a new EV in late 2018

BigAl81 · 21-09-2018 10:44pm #1

Hi,

I am strongly considering buying an Niro EV later this year. At a predicted cost of nearly 40k for the 64kWh version, would waiting a year or two make more sense?

In two years, I would guess the Tesla Model 3 would be available here. There will be upgraded Ionics and Leafs. VW and others will have a few affordable cars out. Even Dyson are looking at bringing out an EV in a few years!

So in 2020, there will be more choice and possibly a lower initial cost, or perhaps even good value second hand Model S's, or a Niro for 25k second hand at that point?

Do people think the competition will drive down prices overall?

Or do people think, get what you can now, supply will be limited for many years to come?

I would save 3.5k per year by switching to an EV, so in theory if I was to keep the Nero for about 10 years it would have cost me nothing!

Trying to decide to take the plunge now, or wait 18 to 24 months. It feels like we are at a tipping point in EVs and don't want to commit too early at too high a cost!

Thanks,
BigAl.

ps: for me a long range 64kWh+ would be a requirement due to regular trips up north, and not wanting to stop / have to depend on the public chargers!

ewj1978 · 21-09-2018 10:51pm

TBH its really your own personal choice.
I personally won't be buying a car at ~€40k. I'll be waiting till next year when 2nd hand models with low mileage will come available.
If you did wait till 2020 then the choices you have will obviously be greater, but again its down to your personal choice and reasons.

KCross · 21-09-2018 10:52pm

BigAl81 wrote: »

I am strongly considering buying an Niro EV later this year. At a predicted cost of nearly 40k for the 64kWh version, would waiting a year or two make more sense?

I dont think so. A predicted €40k is a high price to pay though so thats a personal decision whether you want to splash €40k on a car or not.

BigAl81 wrote: »

So in 2020, there will be more choice and possibly a lower initial cost, or perhaps even good value second hand Model S's, or a Niro for 25k second hand at that point?

Wishful thinking!

BigAl81 wrote: »

Or do people think, get what you can now, supply will be limited for many years to come?

This

BigAl81 wrote: »

I would save 3.5k per year by switching to an EV, so in theory if I was to keep the Nero for about 10 years it would have cost me nothing!

Enough said, go for it and hope you get one in the first batch of deliveries. Waiting until 2020 will just mean you have missed €7k in fuel savings!!!!!

daheff · 21-09-2018 11:01pm

KCross wrote: »

Enough said, go for it and hope you get one in the first batch of deliveries. Waiting until 2020 will just mean you have missed €7k in fuel savings!!!!!

But missed about the same in depreciation?

KCross · 21-09-2018 11:04pm

daheff wrote: »

But missed about the same in depreciation?

Normally yes, but EV depreciation isn't anywhere near normal at the moment. I'd be surprised if the Niro EV depreciates €7k and either way he is talking about buying a car in 2020 so that will depreciate too so that doesn't really matter. Get the fuel savings now.

BigAl81 · 22-09-2018 7:40am

daheff wrote:

But missed about the same in depreciation?

Yeah that's part of my thinking alright, but if I save 3.5k per year on fuel etc, I'd effectively be getting a brand new high spec car for free!!

BigAl81 · 22-09-2018 7:48am

A few other things that annoy me are things like no cooling for batteries (Leaf), lower spec cars here in Ireland than in UK (Kona) and a very big thing for me is no smart phone app (Niro/Ionic).

The lack of apps is particularly annoying as they are available elsewhere like Korea, but not in Ireland, manufacturers actively chose to remove this from their Irish offerings ;(

So paying full price for a car lacking spec / features that are available elsewhere doesn't sit well with me.

I think increased competition from other car companies in the next two years could resolve all that? Or is that wishful thinking?

Shefwedfan · 22-09-2018 8:28am

I am not sure what your questions is.....you mention about buying a Niro but that is not available till next year.....

If it is roll out plans then
VW Neo - in showroom next year, delivery 2020
Leaf larger battery - in showroom end 2019, delivery 2020
ioniq - no idea, potentially something announced next year with delivery in 2020
Dyson - prob 2022
Model 3 - maybe deliveries will start late 2019/early 2020 if you have it reserved. For someone looking to buy/reserve now, 2021
Kona/Niro - delivery next year but in restricted numbers

Based on your actual requirements
eGolf 2 - available now but limited
Leaf 40 - available now
Ioniq - limited.....

Might be better to giev your requirements, would a PHEV keep you ticking over for 2 years?

BigAl81 · 22-09-2018 8:38am

Thanks for the info above.

My understating is Niro is available for purchase this November with delivery before February 2019.

Looking 18 to 24 months ahead of that I see many changes and new cars coming out.

That would theoretically address my concerns in my post above regarding spec and apps etc? Also spending 40k at a time when there could be cheaper alternatives coming some would be a concern.

Just wondering is people agree with that, or if the sense is by the time all these other models are launched and actually available to buy, it's realistically more like 3 to 4 years away.

Thanks,
BigAl.

Shefwedfan · 22-09-2018 9:52am

I expect the majority of cars for the next few year will have 2 option, 40kWh and 60kWh batteries.....all car manufacturers will release a car with those and keep them for 4-5 years as the dev costs to get to this point are huge, they will need to see a return, even Tesla cannot carry on losing money

VW have invested 80 million or so recently in company on solid state battery but that is 5 years off

VW have said with ID range it will spawn 20+ cars across its brand but they could be 2020/21/22 before they arrive....

A lot of people might hold on for The Seat/skoda version of the VW Crozz but you might be 2024 before that hits market after they saturate with the higher cost Crozz

You could buy a 60kWh now and in 5 years be changing for a 60kWh with some fancier features.....who really needs over 500km, they just need better charging

KCross · 22-09-2018 11:46am

BigAl81 wrote: »

A few other things that annoy me are things like no cooling for batteries (Leaf), lower spec cars here in Ireland than in UK (Kona) and a very big thing for me is no smart phone app (Niro/Ionic).

The lack of apps is particularly annoying as they are available elsewhere like Korea, but not in Ireland, manufacturers actively chose to remove this from their Irish offerings ;(

So paying full price for a car lacking spec / features that are available elsewhere doesn't sit well with me.

I think increased competition from other car companies in the next two years could resolve all that? Or is that wishful thinking?

There wont be huge competition in the next 2yrs and you cant control the Paddy spec stuff. They are trying to maximise profit and when they know they will sell every single one of their allocation they have no incentive to please you so I'd say wishful thinking if you think there are going to be big changes in the next 18-24 months that will result in your Niro EV being considered out of date or over priced.

I agree with you on the app side of things. I use the app alot for the Leaf and would miss that with a switch to Hyundai or Kia but what you dont know wont hurt you. Its not a deal breaker either, just handy. The main thing is, does the car give you what you need in terms of range, comfort, savings etc.

I'm trusting your statement that you will save €3.5k on fuel per year so I think the lack of an app shouldn't inhibit you from making those savings asap. The app isn't worth missing out on that kind of saving.... and bear in mind thats out of your net earnings. You'd get an extra holiday a year for that kind of money!

BigAl81 wrote: »

My understating is Niro is available for purchase this November with delivery before February 2019.

Niro EV should be with us for 191. Get your deposit down early though as its likely to sell out quickly with limited supply.

BigAl81 wrote: »

Looking 18 to 24 months ahead of that I see many changes and new cars coming out.

What cars are you referring to and what changes? I dont see it.
VW and Dyson should have one car each in 2020. No idea on spec or price but I'd bet the Dyson will be Tesla Model S/Jag iPace price (€80k+). Are you willing to spend that kind of money?

BMW iNext is going to be 2022.

VW might have something <€40k in 2020 and that could even be for their short range version. You seem to want/need a long range 60kWh+ EV so I'd be surprised if VW deliver one of those for <€40k as they will almost certainly price themselves above Hyundai/Kia.

Apart from that I'm not sure there is much else. Load of rumours and marketing and concepts etc but I wouldn't be holding your breath for those.

BigAl81 wrote: »

That would theoretically address my concerns in my post above regarding spec and apps etc? Also spending 40k at a time when there could be cheaper alternatives coming some would be a concern.

The word "could" is your problem here. And it has always been thus in the EV space... cries of "dont buy a 24kWh Leaf cause when the next model comes out the old one will depreciate like a stone". It hasn't happened, in fact the opposite has happened.

The same happened with the 30kWh... dont buy it because the Gen 2 40kWh Leaf will kill the old Leaf.

There will ALWAYS be something newer and better on the horizon. imo, in 2yrs time you will be here again saying the same thing.... "I think I'll hold off because BMW or Ford or whoever have announced a new EV for 2022". The EV space is going to be constantly changing for decades to come as newer batteries and more tech gets released.... in the meantime you are paying €3.5k in fuel per year.... If I were you, I'd buy now if the car suits you and you are happy with its looks, drivability, space etc and by all accounts the Niro EV is a cracking car albeit a tad expensive... but if its saving you €3.5k and you have no range anxiety you have hit the jackpot in my eyes.

Calahonda52 · 22-09-2018 12:51pm

OP: I bought a new 30 kWh Leaf in March 2017.
It halved in value in 15 months

Shefwedfan · 22-09-2018 1:26pm

Calahonda52 wrote: »

OP: I bought a new 30 kWh Leaf in March 2017.
It halved in value in 15 months

Yes because you bought a car which was been replaced less than 12 months later....

A friend bought a brand new A6 at the start fo this year, the got a deal on it because the new model was coming out.....his car was dropped like a stone because the new A6 model is out....Their is nothing strange about a car dropping in value when the new model comes out

Shefwedfan · 22-09-2018 1:29pm

KCross wrote: »

There will ALWAYS be something newer and better on the horizon. imo, in 2yrs time you will be here again saying the same thing.... "I think I'll hold off because BMW or Ford or whoever have announced a new EV for 2022". The EV space is going to be constantly changing for decades to come as newer batteries and more tech gets released.... in the meantime you are paying €3.5k in fuel per year.... If I were you, I'd buy now if the car suits you and you are happy with its looks, drivability, space etc and by all accounts the Niro EV is a cracking car albeit a tad expensive... but if its saving you €3.5k and you have no range anxiety you have hit the jackpot in my eyes.

I think the market will hold now at 64kWh. The cost to go above that is too much and the car manufacturer will be sick of R&D money with little to no return. The distance in Kona/Niro and the other cars coming out is more than enough if you have a proper charger network.

Look how many leaf 2 have sold.....Leaf 2 with a proper network in Ireland and you would only need a 40kWh. People are only looking for more range because of the **** network....

In the US/UK they have decent network so why would car companies need to push more range out of cars?

What the car companies will do is start to push out their own networks and make money off people charging cars, Ionity, you cant make money from Ionity if your cars can be 1200km without a recharge

Dont be at yourself · 22-09-2018 1:46pm

I'd say the best approach would be to import from UK/NI in January 2018:

- With Brexit coasting towards a no-deal, Sterling will be weakening against the Euro
- You'll get a better spec/more choice -- at least with the Ioniq & Kona
- You'll get it on 191 plates

The 64Kw Niro & Kona are perfect for Ireland, they eliminate range anxiety, and will have access to the Ionity CCS network whenever a charge is needed.

unkel · 22-09-2018 2:06pm

Calahonda52 wrote: »

OP: I bought a new 30 kWh Leaf in March 2017.
It halved in value in 15 months

I don't want to be a dick, but you paid top dollar for a car that was on the way out (about to be replaced by a new model). The depreciation of your car is pretty much the exception in the EV market. Many second hand EVs actually went up in value (negative depreciation) since last year, even most older Leafs (2011-2015)

Casati · 22-09-2018 3:07pm

KCross wrote: »

There wont be huge competition in the next 2yrs and you cant control the Paddy spec stuff. They are trying to maximise profit and when they know they will sell every single one of their allocation they have no incentive to please you so I'd say wishful thinking if you think there are going to be big changes in the next 18-24 months that will result in your Niro EV being considered out of date or over priced.

I agree with you on the app side of things. I use the app alot for the Leaf and would miss that with a switch to Hyundai or Kia but what you dont know wont hurt you. Its not a deal breaker either, just handy. The main thing is, does the car give you what you need in terms of range, comfort, savings etc.

I'm trusting your statement that you will save €3.5k on fuel per year so I think the lack of an app shouldn't inhibit you from making those savings asap. The app isn't worth missing out on that kind of saving.... and bear in mind thats out of your net earnings. You'd get an extra holiday a year for that kind of money!

Niro EV should be with us for 191. Get your deposit down early though as its likely to sell out quickly with limited supply.

What cars are you referring to and what changes? I dont see it.
VW and Dyson should have one car each in 2020. No idea on spec or price but I'd bet the Dyson will be Tesla Model S/Jag iPace price (€80k+). Are you willing to spend that kind of money?

BMW iNext is going to be 2022.

VW might have something <€40k in 2020 and that could even be for their short range version. You seem to want/need a long range 60kWh+ EV so I'd be surprised if VW deliver one of those for <€40k as they will almost certainly price themselves above Hyundai/Kia.

Apart from that I'm not sure there is much else. Load of rumours and marketing and concepts etc but I wouldn't be holding your breath for those.

The word "could" is your problem here. And it has always been thus in the EV space... cries of "dont buy a 24kWh Leaf cause when the next model comes out the old one will depreciate like a stone". It hasn't happened, in fact the opposite has happened.

The same happened with the 30kWh... dont buy it because the Gen 2 40kWh Leaf will kill the old Leaf.

There will ALWAYS be something newer and better on the horizon. imo, in 2yrs time you will be here again saying the same thing.... "I think I'll hold off because BMW or Ford or whoever have announced a new EV for 2022". The EV space is going to be constantly changing for decades to come as newer batteries and more tech gets released.... in the meantime you are paying €3.5k in fuel per year.... If I were you, I'd buy now if the car suits you and you are happy with its looks, drivability, space etc and by all accounts the Niro EV is a cracking car albeit a tad expensive... but if its saving you €3.5k and you have no range anxiety you have hit the jackpot in my eyes.

I’d agree with this, the ev space is changing and improving range but it appears that all the newer/ longer range cars have one thing in common - bigger price tags!

40k is a fair bit for any new car but you can be sure the next one will be dearer, and the massive incentives for ev’s Inc the 10k grant, free charging, reduced tolls, tax and in some locations free parking, won’t last forever. If the car suits you, Don’t fear about buying now and enjoying the benefits while they are guaranteed

enumbers · 22-09-2018 11:01pm

Casati wrote: »

I’d agree with this, the ev space is changing and improving range but it appears that all the newer/ longer range cars have one thing in common - bigger price tags!

40k is a fair bit for any new car but you can be sure the next one will be dearer, and the massive incentives for ev’s Inc the 10k grant, free charging, reduced tolls, tax and in some locations free parking, won’t last forever. If the car suits you, Don’t fear about buying now and enjoying the benefits while they are guaranteed

How are the continued tax supports going to be continued. Government supporting tech that will take from the 2.3billion plus vat they take every year from road fuel in taxes. I know they will be fined for not reducing co2 emmisions but were is all the missing money going to be found. If ice was taxed the way electric is the cost analysis would be very different.this is not allowing for the road tax levels been much lower also

ewj1978 · 23-09-2018 1:42am

Dont you worry about revenue finding ways to fill its coffers. I'm sure they've worked it out already.

Zenith74 · 23-09-2018 8:41am

Calahonda52 wrote: »

OP: I bought a new 30 kWh Leaf in March 2017.
It halved in value in 15 months

That seems a little unlikely. I’ve been looking at L30s for quite a while now and don’t see any 2016s at half their new price, nevermind 2017s. Are you basing this on what a garage is offering as a trade-in maybe?

Calahonda52 · 23-09-2018 11:50am

Zenith74 wrote: »

That seems a little unlikely. I’ve been looking at L30s for quite a while now and don’t see any 2016s at half their new price, nevermind 2017s. Are you basing this on what a garage is offering as a trade-in maybe?

Would the trade in not be more unless they did not want it?
At the time , May 2018, he had no 40's available
Donal Ryan Nenagh

Zenith74 · 23-09-2018 12:08pm

Calahonda52 wrote: »

Would the trade in not be more unless they did not want it?
At the time , May 2018, he had no 40's available
Donal Ryan Nenagh

Any time I've looked to trade anything in I've felt I could better privately, they tend to give you less so they can add something to the price when they sell it on and make a profit.

But anyway, the 2017 L30s on Carzone at the moment are listed for €22/23/24k. If you paid close €30k new then you should have lost 20-30% tops, which is not unreasonable for any secondhand car, but especially one that a significantly improved newer model was on the horizon at the time.

Having said that, if your L30 is a low-mileage SVE and you'll let it go for €15k I'd be an interested buyer

.

unkel · 23-09-2018 12:24pm

Zenith74 wrote: »

the 2017 L30s on Carzone at the moment are listed for €22/23/24k.

Only a complete fool would pay anything near 24k for a '17 Leaf. That said, I agree with you about what dealers offer as trade ins. I'd say they saw Calahonda52 coming in from miles away and they reckoned another very profitable deal was ready to be made :pac:

Shefwedfan · 23-09-2018 12:30pm

Zenith74 wrote: »

Any time I've looked to trade anything in I've felt I could better privately, they tend to give you less so they can add something to the price when they sell it on and make a profit.

But anyway, the 2017 L30s on Carzone at the moment are listed for €22/23/24k. If you paid close €30k new then you should have lost 20-30% tops, which is not unreasonable for any secondhand car, but especially one that a significantly improved newer model was on the horizon at the time.

Having said that, if your L30 is a low-mileage SVE and you'll let it go for €15k I'd be an interested buyer .

I doubt anyone paid close to 30k for a L30 in 2017. The top spec L24 was been sold off for 20-22k last year. So probably close to 25k for a L30 depending on spec

liamog · 23-09-2018 3:56pm

Shefwedfan wrote: »

What the car companies will do is start to push out their own networks and make money off people charging cars, Ionity, you cant make money from Ionity if your cars can be 1200km without a recharge

I don't think it makes any sense for manufacturers to get into the energy retailing business. The big plays will be into vehicles as a service. I can sell you a car or a subscription to a car.

They'll still be R&D into batteries, but I suspect your correct in a hold at approx 500km range. Now is the time to start reducing cost rather than increasing range.

unkel · 23-09-2018 5:43pm

Shefwedfan wrote: »

I doubt anyone paid close to 30k for a L30 in 2017.

Probably not many, but Calahonda52 did by his own account

BigAl81 · 23-09-2018 6:18pm

Thanks everyone for all the thoughts and posts.

My sense before the thread was more towards the wait and see mindset. Now after reading the above I'm more so thinking to go for it

I know there will always be something new out when ever you buy anything, but I think there is a tipping point with more models and longer range on the horizon. Just now think that horizon is a few years away at best!

My savings calculations will get blown away when the government inevitably do something to recoup the lost tax and fuel excise, but all the more reason to go EV sooner rather than later!

We've a test drive of the Niro coming up so if that goes well might be time to put the deposit down!!

Thanks,
Al.

Zenith74 · 23-09-2018 6:31pm

BigAl81 wrote: »

Thanks everyone for all the thoughts and posts.

My sense before the thread was more towards the wait and see mindset. Now after reading the above I'm more so thinking to go for it

I know there will always be something new out when ever you buy anything, but I think there is a tipping point with more models and longer range on the horizon. Just now think that horizon is a few years away at best!

My savings calculations will get blown away when the government inevitably do something to recoup the lost tax and fuel excise, but all the more reason to go EV sooner rather than later!

We've a test drive of the Niro coming up so if that goes well might be time to put the deposit down!!

Thanks,
Al.

FWIW I spent a long time debating going EV, planning on saving up enough money to get something 200mile range etc. In the end I test drove a Leaf24, noticed you could buy low mileage ones for €12k and figured I’d take a chance and give one a try. Best decision ever, absolutely love it and ended up buying a second one for my wife within weeks! Just do it! But don’t overreach, buy one you can afford, so if you’re not happy it’s not the end of the world...

Bixler3 · 23-09-2018 6:40pm

Hi, I have just bought a 40KwH Renault Zoe because they are doing 0% apr and offered me a great trade in on my toyota. Not sure what your travel distance is but its rated at 280km summer and 220km winter, thought others here may have a view on how realistic that is. Very happy with the car so far, best of luck with your decision.

unkel · 23-09-2018 9:21pm

Bixler3 wrote: »

its rated at 280km summer and 220km winter, thought others here may have a view on how realistic that is.

Renault themselves say 300km summer and 200km winter. I'd say that's realistic enough in mixed driving, but include driving at 120km/h real speed on motorways and you won't get anywhere near it

Best of luck with your car though. Once you go EV for your main car, you'll never want to go back to ICE

BigAl81 · 23-09-2018 10:11pm

Bixler3 wrote:

Hi, I have just bought a 40KwH Renault Zoe because they are doing 0% apr and offered me a great trade in on my toyota. Not sure what your travel distance is but its rated at 280km summer and 220km winter, thought others here may have a view on how realistic that is. Very happy with the car so far, best of luck with your decision.

Do you mind me asking about what you paid for it? Zero apr and a good trade in could make for a good deal!

Is it a good time to buy a new EV in late 2018

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