Why would anyone give away good tips.

mayoman1973 · 04-09-2017 6:40pm

recording it as 67.0 as STILL available on paddy

mayoman1973 · 04-09-2017 6:49pm

Roscommon 04.09.2017 19:45Fr Gilligansvoyge BetfairSportsbook @ 21.00

mayoman1973 · 04-09-2017 6:49pm

on betfred as well

BorneTobyWilde · 04-09-2017 9:16pm

Are you now backing 3 in a race .
Seems a few today had 3 selections in a single race

BorneTobyWilde · 04-09-2017 9:43pm

Do you back on the betfair exchanges only ?

Always found that hard to get matched. Or do you back on betfair bookies

mayoman1973 · 04-09-2017 10:31pm

No, havn't changed selection method. In fact one of the first races I showed tips for I had 8 picks in it I think it was.
I will back on the exchange if price drifts out but invariable I go with the bookies cause their place terms are more lucrative.
Anyways todays stats. The 19:45 was a bit of a let down as all the pointers indicated the fav @ 2.40 was not going to feature.
Today: 13 picks, 26 pts staked, returns 35pts, + 9pts

168 selections to date, 336 pts staked, Bank = +160pts.

eric hoone · 04-09-2017 11:59pm

mayoman1973 wrote: »

the BIG ONE still evades us

What's the big one? Doubles?

BorneTobyWilde · 05-09-2017 1:36am

If you're confident of good price weiners would you not start with small stakes and build towards the winner.

thesandeman · 05-09-2017 2:48am

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If you're confident of good price weiners

I think he's more interested in horses tbh.

I missed anything after 5pm but I'm pretty sure my 25c e/w's are up again today from the earlier results. I'll have a look later.

mayoman1973 · 05-09-2017 8:45am

Thie "BIG ONE" as I see it is a 34.0 or bigger winner. For any one that thinks 81.0s can't don't win or place they have proved to be the most lucrative bets of the lot. Just they don't come up that often

. Doubles ( Esp e/w doubles ) are the best value bets you can do with these tips. Two Reasons: 1. Bookies love doubles 2. You are multiplying positive value by positive value. A double with negative value in each leg is what bookies want you to do and multiplies the negative value in their favor. EVERY bet you do boils down to "Is it value or not" If it's not value then regardless of it winning or not, you lose long term.
As regards being confident of a big winner and building towards it, based on the tips I tweeted yesterday I was well down money wise ( As I stake higher for the higher odds and the 7:45 let me down ) But .... there was the one winner I had that I forgot to post which put me well into the black

mayoman1973 · 05-09-2017 9:53am

Kempton
05.09.2017
18:20 Creek Walk BetfairSportsbook @ 5.50

mayoman1973 · 05-09-2017 12:22pm

Kempton
05.09.2017
18:20 Mohsen Laddys @ 8.00

BorneTobyWilde · 05-09-2017 1:17pm

I had 4 races yesterday, 3 in each race, I won all 4 races.
Didn't post them though .
Only a profit of 2.8 pts though as horses that won were of small prices. Had one race failed I'd be at a loss.

BorneTobyWilde · 05-09-2017 1:22pm

3.15
Toomer 11-2 pp
Faithful promise 4-1 pp <<< THIS RACE WON. WHICH MAKES IT 5 RACES IN A ROW WON .
Neola 9-2 pp <<
-2pts + 5.5 , profit of 2.5pts

3.50
Fleeting visit 6-1pp <TWO NON RUNNER SO NO BET.
Percy Veer 18-1 bs
Corpus Chorister 7-1 pp

1pt each win. For fun

Guffy · 05-09-2017 1:23pm

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

I had 4 races yesterday, 3 in each race, I won all 4 races.
Didn't post them though .
Only a profit of 2.8 pts though as horses that won were of small prices. Had one race failed I'd be at a loss.

Btw you confuse me. You've been attacking this thread since it started. I must admit i was sceptical at first and am not following the bets but it seems to be turning a small profit in a short sample size.

Since he started you've been banging on about your own system that you dont follow. I just dont get the point of it?

4068ac1elhodqr · 05-09-2017 2:25pm

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

3.15.... 3.50...

Suggest we leave the tips on this particular thread to mayoman1973. There are other general tips/fancies threads for this out there.
- Just to see how his experimental system develops. Have some doubts about it, but interesting as an experiment nonetheless.

The one thing he does forget to mention is the extra places factor , which is often offered by the likes of pp/sky etc. There is also commission is taken from exchanges to eat into any margins.

Generally would prefer to see something simple like 'e/w daily Trebles'. As with these multiple single e/w picks the margins are always going to be smallish and the effort large (bar extreme and repetitive luck).

Would also have very real doubts about the co-ordination ability of a large group (15?) synchronising the spread (online and offline across multiple vendors). This would require extreme mobility, monetary fluidity, communications and time availability. Very much doubt this actually occurs, as suggested.

mayoman1973 · 05-09-2017 3:09pm

I don't factor in the extra places that Sky/365 etc offer which folks can look for themselves. These do indeed make for additional profit over and above what my pick will/have made. For instance on a Saturday with 365 if a horse pops up I might take it with 365 at a few clicks less as the extra place is worth maybe 10 to 15% long term. But this is for a person to decide themselves. Believe me @accumulator, this is well past the experiment level. In most cases I only post/tweet if a horse has value on multiple big books. No point in posting if Stan has left the door open on a price as not too many people will have a SJ account. Any one who has a stan account for longer than a few week needs to have a serious look at their betting returns. "Smallish margins" is subjective. Depends on what you consider to be a good return per min invested at a PC. I don't imaging there are many people on 47% profit as I have but even getting on half them is surely yielding 30 to 35%. As I made it clear earlier in the thread. I am the first one at the feeding trough so it is impossible to expect a price to remain 100% of the time. If it is still there when I'm done feeding then I post /tweet it. This might give you an indication of the difficulty I have in "cordinating a large" group of friends. E/w doubles, trebles are nice when they come along but any one who seriously expects a bookie who has any one minding the house is not going to have 3 prices out of whack at the same time. But it does happen. This won't work on the exchange because when the value price is there to back or a Fav has value to Lay , sorry, but I just take the whole thing.

mayoman1973 · 05-09-2017 3:33pm

Another reason I won't suggest what doubles people should do is when you consider how easy that would make the betting pattern matching for bookies to do on punters. Not going to do the bookies work for them. I can't be clear enough on this ... Time is everything. Hence twitter is my first port of call for a tip, the few seconds lost when posting on boards.ie is crucial to a persons chances of getting on. When I post stats here it is for the tips I have tweeted, this will almost always include more tips than I got chance to post here. Just see the first one of the day (Tweet only sorry ) was beaten by a length ... still another pt profit but wins are always nice

BorneTobyWilde · 05-09-2017 5:05pm

Aurora Tiny Garbage wrote: »

Suggest we leave the tips on this particular thread to mayoman1973. There are other general tips/fancies threads for this out there.
- Just to see how his experimental system develops. Have some doubts about it, but interesting as an experiment nonetheless.

The one thing he does forget to mention is the extra places factor , which is often offered by the likes of pp/sky etc. There is also commission is taken from exchanges to eat into any margins.

Generally would prefer to see something simple like 'e/w daily Trebles'. As with these multiple single e/w picks the margins are always going to be smallish and the effort large (bar extreme and repetitive luck).

Would also have very real doubts about the co-ordination ability of a large group (15?) synchronising the spread (online and offline across multiple vendors). This would require extreme mobility, monetary fluidity, communications and time availability. Very much doubt this actually occurs, as suggested.

Yea, I agree.
I don't want to be confusing this thread with selections.
I won 5 races in a row now, selecting 3 in each. Profit of 5.3 for 18pts stakes. a small return

mayoman1973 · 05-09-2017 5:49pm

Lol, 5 in a row. Let me familiarize you with the second law of betting ... If the bet is NOT on then the bet is NOT on. I can't back a tip that I don't see till after the event. I have 12,000 selections in my database which have a big fat ZERO value to anyone else but me because no one could say for sure if they were after thoughts or not. Just pop them tips of yours in their own thread and after bet number 1000 we can compare. Until the number of bets you have "Posted prior to the off in a publicly available forum" exceeds 1000 let us not bother about comparisons again because there is nothing to compare.

BorneTobyWilde · 05-09-2017 8:41pm

If i was lying I'd have made the profit larger.
I must write up my set of rules and create my own thread.

mayoman1973 · 05-09-2017 9:59pm

Today: 6 picks, 12 pts staked, returns 10pts, -2pts
174 selections to date, 348 pts staked, Bank = +158pts.

redzerdrog · 05-09-2017 10:49pm

I have tried to follow out of interest but can't because it's too painful to read!

Guffy · 05-09-2017 11:30pm

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If i was lying I'd have made the profit larger.
I must write up my set of rules and create my own thread.

Id be very interested in following this

mayoman1973 · 06-09-2017 9:47am

Lingfield
06.09.2017
16:55 Cristal Pallas Cat bet365 @ 81.00

mayoman1973 · 06-09-2017 9:49am

Guffy wrote: »

Id be very interested in following this

Just share a link and give us a rolling day by day total.

PS. People struggling to understand these complicated tips.

Course, Time, Horse, (Bookie name if only one has it ) and Price
Is there a simpler way to put this that I am missing?

mayoman1973 · 06-09-2017 10:00am

Kempton
06.09.2017
18:55 Joegogo BetfairSportsbook @ 4.33

mayoman1973 · 06-09-2017 10:34am

Gowran Park
06.09.2017
17:05 Madrid @ 5.00

mayoman1973 · 06-09-2017 11:31am

Gowran Park
06.09.2017
17:35 True Companion Coral @ 8.50

mayoman1973 · 06-09-2017 1:30pm

Southwell
06.09.2017
16:30 Orchardstown Cross @ 34.00

Why would anyone give away good tips.

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