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Brexit discussion thread IV

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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    No - if there is no deal there will be no UK trucks on the continent. Even if the UK flouts wto rules and allows free open EU imports the simple lack of UK trucks means disruption to imports. Shops will run out of food.

    People saying this won't happen are actually saying there will be a deal because obviously.

    In other words, no deal is impossible because...

    There would be No Food!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    Trasna1 wrote: »
    Countries survive outside the EU because they have the systems in place to deal with the volume of imports and exports they need to sustain themselves.

    That said the talk of food shortages, rioting and all round general mayhem on the immediate aftermath of Brexit are a bit far fetched since if there is no deal the UK will have a couple of months to stockpile, prepare and buy time.

    You might see disturbances at the NI border though.

    Considering the approach so far seems to be to have planned absolutely nothing. They've put no extra port facilities in place, produced no information whatsoever for businesses or anything else, it's quite possible there could be a total mess.

    You can't run a country entirely on rhetoric and that's exactly what they've been doing for the past couple of years.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    No - if there is no deal there will be no UK trucks on the continent. Even if the UK flouts wto rules and allows free open EU imports the simple lack of UK trucks means disruption to imports. Shops will run out of food.

    People saying this won't happen are actually saying there will be a deal because obviously.

    In other words, no deal is impossible because...

    There would be No Food!

    That's not how it works though. No matter haw bad it would be, the simple fact that it would be a ****show does not stop it from happening. The UK government actually has to do something to stop it, unless they do something to stop it then a no deal Brexit is the default result. So far, they have ruled out more or less everything that would allow this to be stopped.


    On another note, given that Brexit day is supposed to be on March 29th, that makes Monday 1 April 2019 the first business day of Brexit. Do you think the whole thing might just be a massive April fools joke being played by the UK government on UK businesses?

    ...No? Alright then.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,314 ✭✭✭sink


    No - if there is no deal there will be no UK trucks on the continent. Even if the UK flouts wto rules and allows free open EU imports the simple lack of UK trucks means disruption to imports. Shops will run out of food.

    People saying this won't happen are actually saying there will be a deal because obviously.

    In other words, no deal is impossible because...

    There would be No Food!

    AKA a famine!

    Not all foods are delivered by truck. A significant proportion of food is delivered to UK shores by bulk carrier or container. Only the ferry ports will collapse, the tanker and container ports will be able to cope far better as they already have significant capacity to deal with customs inspections and they will be able fast track the most urgent deliveries.

    I'm not predicting anything less than a severe crisis, a situation that will badly damage British society and economy. But that is still not a famine, a famine is a situation where lack of availability of food leads to widespread malnutrition. I've not seen any credible prediction that that will occur.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    sink wrote: »
    AKA a famine!

    Not all foods are delivered by truck. A significant proportion of food is delivered to UK shores by bulk carrier or container. Only the ferry ports will collapse, the tanker and container ports will be able to cope far better as they already have significant capacity to deal with customs inspections and they will be able fast track the most urgent deliveries.

    I'm not predicting anything less than a severe crisis, a situation that will badly damage British society and economy. But that is still not a famine, a famine is a situation where lack of availability of food leads to widespread malnutrition. I've not seen any credible prediction that that will occur.

    It would take way more than even the worst possible brexit to cause a famine in the UK. Shortages of fuel, certain medicines, certain food products (but nothing close to causing actual hardship related to lack of food) transport issues with ports clogged and difficulties with air travel, are just about as bad is it could possibly get. But to be fair, the above is bad enough not to do the thing as far as I am concerned.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,573 ✭✭✭Infini


    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/preparations-for-hard-brexit-already-under-way-at-irish-ports-and-airports-37058460.html

    Preperation's been made at port's and airports for hard Brexit. It's getting very likely they're gonna crash out hard and acrimoniously. As for NI I dont believe a Hard border will be able to go up in the short term as local opposition could be severe which would mean they'll have to put up blockade's in various area's for goods traffic.

    Honestly Britain could shut down overnight if they keep running such a kamikaze strategy as they're barreling hard towards a cliff and the EU could block all trade in the event of a lack of a deal.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,259 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    If the UK refuse to pay the €50 mil divorce amount, could the EU introduce sanctions of some sort to recover the deficit?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    If the UK refuse to pay the €50 mil divorce amount, could the EU introduce sanctions of some sort to recover the deficit?

    It could simply collect them as tariffs. Ireland was in this position when we refused to pay the UK back in the 1920s. Or, it could create considerable hostility towards the UK gaining any benefit from shared services.

    Remember, a lot of these 'divorce payments' are for services the UK has used, pensions for staff that the UK has benefited from the services of, and so on.

    It's more like pulling out of a commercial group of some sort and refusing to pay any of the costs.

    Negotiating is one thing but flatly refusing to pay, when you have the resources to do so, would be pretty much theft of service. It would go down very badly with the other members.

    The UK media and aspects of politics do not acknowledge that these fees are justifiable or for services that were used / benefited from. They seem to think they're just the EU extracting a huge fee to punish them for leaving, which is actually not the case at all - there's a whole accounting logic behind that bill, it's not just plucked out of the sky.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Not strictly Brexit-related, but the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference will convene on July 25th - presumably nothing stopping them from discussing the Border, so long as Brussels is informed, and no final deal is concluded?

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/biigc-announcement


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    Not strictly Brexit-related, but the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference will convene on July 25th - presumably nothing stopping them from discussing the Border, so long as Brussels is informed, and no final deal is concluded?

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/biigc-announcement

    They can discuss anything they like and even discuss possible solutions to the problem. They cannot however conclude a bilateral agreement on the EU common frontiers. The Irish government would be acting ultra vires i.e. beyond its power and authority if it were to attempt to negotiate something on behalf of the entire EU.

    They can however discuss mechanics of how things might work, put their point of view across, come up with joint proposals to put to the other 26 members and so on.


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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,246 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    No - if there is no deal there will be no UK trucks on the continent. Even if the UK flouts wto rules and allows free open EU imports the simple lack of UK trucks means disruption to imports. Shops will run out of food.

    People saying this won't happen are actually saying there will be a deal because obviously.

    In other words, no deal is impossible because...

    There would be No Food!
    You are aware that there are other than UK truck drivers in Europe, right? Add to this 80% of all UK bound trucks today return empty it is not going to add that much to get a continental truck into the UK as long as they are guaranteed a ferry spot back (which will be dedicated empty RORO ferries for said trucks implemented as trucks with goods will fill up the space on the continent most likely on day 1) while the UK police/border controls etc. are told not to check driver licenses (which once again would cause disruption due to validation procedures etc.).

    Now that is the likely solution but let me not stop there; here's two more solutions to why your scenario is highly unlikely to play out.

    2) Instead of trucks travelling over the sea you only have the trailer travel over. Not ideal obviously but alleviate the problem with driver licenses etc. but at an additional cost since drives needs to be timed to come and pick it up etc.

    3) Container shipments coming in via rail or boat to any harbour in the UK and then moved on to unloading at the warehouses at any time they feel like it.

    As someone who's paid over 8k EUR for trucks inbound to UK (got to live spot market before Christmas) there will be trucks without a doubt; the only question is how much they will charge and how soon UK figures the need to make sure they can return quickly. The longer they drag the feet on sorting out the return the higher the price will become (you're looking at around 1 to 1.5k EUR a day in penalty fees basically). However a gardai or customs guy with a bit of cohones can sort that issue out and ask for forgiveness afterwards so I'm not that worried on that side of things.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,246 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Well May has managed to finally admit some truth and of course trying to blackmail EU with security as expected...
    Speaking over dinner in Brussels the prime minister conceded that the “current legal framework” made Britain’s continued participation impossible and urged the leaders to rewrite their laws to accommodate the UK.

    “Under our current position the UK would for example be able to share information through key databases and agencies, such as SIS2, ECRIS, and Prum that allow our law enforcement to protect all European citizens.

    “We would no longer be able to share real-time alerts for wanted persons including serious criminals. We would be able to respond less swiftly to alerts for missing people from either side of the Channel and reunite them with our loved ones. Our collective ability to map terrorist networks and bring those responsible to justice would be reduced.

    “That is not what I want and I do not want to believe it is what you want either. When you meet as 27 tomorrow I urge you to consider what is in the best interests of the safety of your citizens and mine and give your negotiator a mandate to achieve this crucial objective.”


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    The first episode of RTE's new weekly Brexit podcast:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0628/973848-brexit-republic-podcast/


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    It would take way more than even the worst possible brexit to cause a famine in the UK. Shortages of fuel, certain medicines, certain food products (but nothing close to causing actual hardship related to lack of food) transport issues with ports clogged and difficulties with air travel, are just about as bad is it could possibly get. But to be fair, the above is bad enough not to do the thing as far as I am concerned.

    English KFC stores couldnt even keep its stores stocked with feckin chicken recently


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    Farage just made a complete eejit of himself on BBC. Level of ignorance truly frightening.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    English KFC stores couldnt even keep its stores stocked with feckin chicken recently

    It might be touch and go for a few weeks, but I think the UK might just be able to stave off famine, even if KFC don't have any chicken for a while.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,538 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    UK taxman warned it's running out of time to deliver working customs IT system by Brexit So yeah that's going to hurt financially and logistically.

    comments :
    The tax office is an underfunded mess of outsourced contracts I would be surprised if the could even locate the own asses in the deadline provided.

    Leave out update all their systems to match a spec that hasn't even been finalised yet.

    ...

    Rees-Mogg has explained that after Brexit there will be no need for customs checks.

    There's no point having a system at all so it doesn't matter that it doesn't have requirements.

    ...

    The article covers the role of HMRC in terms of incoming goods, but not much in terms of the seamless bull**** - frictionless border regards exporting goods to the EU.

    There has been no software tender for any of this, so make of that what you will. If the rollout of Universal Credit is anything to go by, we're talking years - a decade.




  • First Up wrote: »
    Farage just made a complete eejit of himself on BBC. Level of ignorance truly frightening.

    His pal on TV3 was no better vs Yates and Cooper


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,226 ✭✭✭joeysoap


    JRM on BBC 1 now ( this week)


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 38,422 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    First Up wrote: »
    Farage just made a complete eejit of himself on BBC. Level of ignorance truly frightening.
    What was he saying?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,848 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    First Up wrote: »
    Farage just made a complete eejit of himself on BBC. Level of ignorance truly frightening.
    He dyed his hair to look like Trump! We're living in Bizzaro-world...

    https://twitter.com/GaryRog/status/1012278379981279232


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,341 ✭✭✭McGiver


    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/981182/brexit-news-eu-summit-theresa-may-jacob-rees-mogg-walk-away-no-deal-eu-uk-trade-latest
    This is madness. Illusion of grandeur. They have absolutely nothing in hand but yet they think they can threaten and blackmail. As many, including myself, predicted, they have started to blackmail using the security card. Simply because they don't have anything else available.


  • Registered Users Posts: 25,907 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Oh, I agree, but that is not at all what I am talking about.

    When the UK bumbles all the way to the deadline with nothing prepared for hard Brexit, and then turns around and asks for an extension to A50 to avoid the utter chaos of a crash out, will the EU refuse?

    Of course not.
    Yes, they will, unless there is compelling reason to think that granting an A50 extension would avoid, as opposed to merely deferring, a chaotic crash-out. But if, two-and-a-half years after the Brexit referendum, the UK has not got their act together sufficiently to be able to make a Brexit deal, why would we expect another three or six months to change anything? There's no point in granting an A50 extension to avoid a crash-out unless granting an A50 extension is actually going to avoid a crash-out.

    If the EU wants to avoid crash-out chaos, the rational course is to adopt measures to avert not the crash-out, but the chaos. So grant emergency waivers and permits to facilitate food and medicine deliveries, keep planes in the air, etc, while allowing the UK to suffer the bulk of the financial/economic consequences of the crash-out.

    Indeed, there's a view in the EU that the only thing that will make the UK recognise reality is, well, reality. On this view, the thing that will most effectively bring the UK to recognise its need for a deal is actually living with the consequences of no-deal, and therefore allowing a crash-out Brexit is likely to result in an EU/UK deal more rapidly than extending the A50 negotiating period would.


  • Registered Users Posts: 855 ✭✭✭mickoneill31


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    Yes, they will ...

    I agree. On March 29th the UK is no longer part of the EU. The UK will have "taken back control". The fact that they've given control to a group of toddlers is not really the EUs responsibility.

    I can see two scenarios where they might extend Article 50.

    1: The deadline is very close and the UK is actually making progress and extending by a few months might actually achieve something. If the Tories are still arguing amongst themselves then extending A50 is doing nothing, they'd just have to do it again.

    2: If the UK asked for it now and actually met deadlines. March (I think) was crunch time, then it was June, now it's October, then it will be February 2019. But I don't think this scenario is likely. The UK is still bickering with itself and shows no indication of moving on from that.

    For anything else the EU could extend Article 50 (if asked) but if I was a negotiator I'd be asking the UK what they're going to do or give up for this extension.

    As it stands now if I was running a business, I'd be assuming we're going for a hard Brexit and plan accordingly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,598 ✭✭✭An Claidheamh


    They spent 2 years riling up British jingoism, trying to undermine the Irish govt/GFA and avoiding solutions to their obligations now, she's whinging about

    "We would be able to respond less swiftly to alerts for missing people on either side of the Channel and reunite them with their loved ones.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44651610

    Freedom from the "Brussels elite" isn't all it's cracked up to be, is it?


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 9,923 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    2: If the UK asked for it now and actually met deadlines. March (I think) was crunch time, then it was June, now it's October, then it will be February 2019. But I don't think this scenario is likely. The UK is still bickering with itself and shows no indication of moving on from that.

    There is another deadline in October that they seem to have forgotten about - The airline flight scheduling for 2019 comes up then.... should be interesting with no new agreement in place.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,246 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    There is another deadline in October that they seem to have forgotten about - The airline flight scheduling for 2019 comes up then.... should be interesting with no new agreement in place.
    The airlines have already added Brexit clauses stating that tickets from 30th March forward basically declaring that we may or may not fly this depending on what happens due to brexit.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    First Up wrote: »
    Farage just made a complete eejit of himself on BBC. Level of ignorance truly frightening.
    What was he saying?
    About how imports from China are cleared at Flexistowe in minutes so why should the Irish border be a problem. He didn't say where on the border they should replicate Felixtowe's infrastructure.

    But if it all gets too hard, the UK could just abandon all border controls with EU. He seemed to expect the EU to reciprocate and seems to have no understanding of how WTO operates.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 9,923 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Nody wrote: »
    The airlines have already added Brexit clauses stating that tickets from 30th March forward basically declaring that we may or may not fly this depending on what happens due to brexit.

    It is not about the tickets it's about the allocation of slots. And that starts in October.


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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 9,923 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    First Up wrote: »
    About how imports from China are cleared at Flexistowe in minutes so why should the Irish border be a problem. He didn't say where on the border they should replicate Felixtowe's infrastructure.

    There could be a good reason why the were being cleared so quickly.

    UK faces €2bn fine over Chinese imports scam, say EU investigators


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