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Politics>Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)
ancapailldorcha 22:34 01-02-2019 (6 Thanks)
This thread is for the discussion of the United Kingdom's upcoming exit from the European Union, known more popularly as Brexit.

Please bear the following in mind before posting:
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fly_agaric 22:36 01-02-2019
Originally Posted by Crock Rock:
Any truth to this?
Well it is a what-if, but IMO plausible scenario if UK exit in March without an agreement with the EU.

There are various (interconnected) imponderables that affect how bad things would be for Ireland/whether it would be as much of a disaster as poster suggested like:

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eagle eye 22:39 01-02-2019
Originally Posted by Imreoir2:
The EU won't have to make any threats or turn against us, if the British fail to uphold the GFA then we will erect a hard border ourselves. The single market is our market, we have to protect it. The UK will also have to put up a hard border if they don't want to be flooded with cheep goods from all over.
We have to protect people first. A border caused chaos, we cannot have a border.
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jm08 22:51 01-02-2019
Originally Posted by An Ciarraioch:
Interestingly, the Swedish Democrats have dropped demands for an in-out referendum from their political platform, and now want to reform EU institutions from within:

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/s...angre-lamna-eu

Ironically, many Eurosceptic parties are moving closer to the centre, and joining the ECR, so if Cameron had held his nerve, the UK would have been in a rather more powerful position after May's elections.
What they want to do is take control of the European Parliament which is a thorn in the side of many of these right wing parties. The EP voted to censor both Hungary. It would suit all these countries if the control was kept within the Council of Minister where these authoritarian figures have a veto. The AfD in Germany have part of their policy the abolishment of the European Parliament.
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road_high 22:57 01-02-2019 (1 Thanks)
Originally Posted by An Ciarraioch:
Interestingly, the Swedish Democrats have dropped demands for an in-out referendum from their political platform, and now want to reform EU institutions from within:

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/s...angre-lamna-eu

Ironically, many Eurosceptic parties are moving closer to the centre, and joining the ECR, so if Cameron had held his nerve, the UK would have been in a rather more powerful position after May's elections.
The so called Eurosceptics are total moderates by UK standards!
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Imreoir2 23:03 01-02-2019 (1 Thanks)
Originally Posted by eagle eye:
We have to protect people first. A border caused chaos, we cannot have a border.
We will be left with no choice, a border with NI is bad, a border with the EU is a national disaster. The imposition of controls on the border is regretable, but unavoidable in a no-deal scenario. How they are implemented however is important. They should be implemented on an emergency temporary basis at makeshift checkpoints with no permenant phisical infastructure. While this is done, the government should also persue a unification policy and push for a referendum to end the need for checks on the border.
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An Ciarraioch 23:06 01-02-2019 (1 Thanks)
A Unionist/Conservative expresses disillusionment with the Irish rugby team due to Brexit - there would surely have been worse occasions in the Seventies/Eighties, but is this common among Ulster Protestants?

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/op...exit-1-8793083
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Seth Brundle 23:08 01-02-2019 (9 Thanks)
Originally Posted by eagle eye:
We have to protect people first. A border caused chaos, we cannot have a border.
Do you read any of the replies to your posts? You have been told about what must happen along the border in order to protect Irish and EU trade which in turn protects livelihoods.
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Capt'n Midnight 23:08 01-02-2019
Originally Posted by An Ciarraioch:
Interestingly, the Swedish Democrats have dropped demands for an in-out referendum from their political platform, and now want to reform EU institutions from within:

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/s...angre-lamna-eu

Ironically, many Eurosceptic parties are moving closer to the centre, and joining the ECR, so if Cameron had held his nerve, the UK would have been in a rather more powerful position after May's elections.
Same in Italy , the populist Lega Nord per l'Indipendenza della Padania no longer want independence for Padania.

Milan and Turin, where all the Fix It Again Tomorrow's and big kitchen appliances come from. Stuff that the UK used to make a lot of.

Yes Italy isn't doing so well economically, but there's a huge black economy. Brexit just doesn't get a mention unless there is a significant event. Pretty much the same as UK news coverage of Italy.
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briany 23:17 01-02-2019
Originally Posted by Imreoir2:
The UK will also have to put up a hard border if they don't want to be flooded with cheep goods from all over.
I thought one of the benefits cited by Brexiteers was that the UK could be opened up to other markets thanks to low tariffs, so an influx of cheap goods would be exactly what they are aiming for in that scenario.
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Imreoir2 23:21 01-02-2019 (1 Thanks)
Originally Posted by briany:
I thought one of the benefits cited by Brexiteers was that the UK could be opened up to other markets thanks to low tariffs, so an influx of cheap goods would be exactly what they are aiming for in that scenario.
It's easy to talk about the sunny uplands of unrestricted trade in the abstract, harder when the reality of it is driving UK manufacturing into the gutter. Not to mention that while the UK won't impose tarrifs on imports, that does not mean taffirs wont be placed on their exports, further crushing their manufacturers.
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tuxy 23:22 01-02-2019
Originally Posted by briany:
I thought one of the benefits cited by Brexiteers was that the UK could be opened up to other markets thanks to low tariffs, so an influx of cheap goods would be exactly what they are aiming for in that scenario.
Yes but they still would need tariffs on some good to prevent their own companies from going under. Also they couldn't just completely open the markets if they hope to do free trade deals with other countries.
It's more about having control over regulations and being able to lower the standard on what's acceptable. The UK will still need to have customs checks.
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ancapailldorcha 23:29 01-02-2019 (3 Thanks)
Originally Posted by tuxy:
Yes but they still would need tariffs on some good to prevent their own companies from going under. Also they couldn't just completely open the markets if they hope to do free trade deals with other countries.
It's more about having control over regulations and being able to lower the standard on what's acceptable. The UK will still need to have customs checks.
The WTO's most favoured nation principle states that all countries must be treated as the nation which is "most favoured". Basically tariff increases and decreases must be applied equally to all nations.

They can open the markets to imports from outside the EU at the risk of decimating their own industries. There is also the weakening of Britain's position in trade talks to consider as a result. If India can export to the UK tariff free and maintain its own protectionist tariffs, why would it opt for an inferior alternative?
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Umaro 23:30 01-02-2019 (7 Thanks)
Originally Posted by An Ciarraioch:
Interestingly, the Swedish Democrats have dropped demands for an in-out referendum from their political platform, and now want to reform EU institutions from within:

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/s...angre-lamna-eu

Ironically, many Eurosceptic parties are moving closer to the centre, and joining the ECR, so if Cameron had held his nerve, the UK would have been in a rather more powerful position after May's elections.
When Eurosceptic parties see the mess that's unfolding with Brexit its very hard to point to it and say "we should do that too".

Whatever way Brexit ends up, it'll kill off Euroscepticism for a few decades.
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EdgeCase 23:41 01-02-2019
"The I" newspaper in the UK is apparently reporting that the Irish Government is being pressurised by the EU over the backstop.

I wouldn't necessarily give it much credence, given the wishful thinking coming out of UK media and rumour reporting.
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