Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Irishmale0399 · 10-02-2019 7:52pm

Water John wrote: »

What have you been smoking lately? TM is never going for that option, voluntarily.

Have a feeling we will see it at the last minute...one should never forget which side she was on before becoming PM.

CelticRambler · 10-02-2019 7:53pm

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

So when is TM going to announce she did all she could and now because the conditions are not benificial to the UK and the lack of support from the HoC they are staying???

Last I heard (from the horse's mouth, via the media) was "I have been very clear ... Britain will leave the EU on the 29th of March"

Who are we to say that an Englishman's word can't be believed (even if she's a woman).

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

one should never forget which side she was on before becoming PM.

The "foreigners are filthy" side, IIRC. The one thing that we can be sure about if Art.50 is revoked, is that freedom of movement is maintained - and that's the one thing above all else that we know TM hates.

Irishmale0399 · 10-02-2019 7:57pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

Last I heard (from the horse's mouth, via the media) was "I have been very clear ... Britain will leave the EU on the 29th of March"

Who are we to say that an Englishman's word can't be believed (even if she's a woman).

I wouldnt believe a word out of any politicans mouth...Englishman or not. And believe me I have met a lot and grew up with one in our house!!!

:p

listermint · 10-02-2019 8:25pm

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Are we not guilty of the same crime? I mean in my circle of anti-Brexit friends, a common theme is that the UK when it leaves is going to end up very badly off, will go into recession and anger at that prospect will be directed against the leave campaign.

But isn't this the same kind of wishful thinking and optimism that the Brexiteers suffer from? Don't get me wrong, I do think from a purely factual basis the UK will probably suffer more than the EU, but I'm not sure either party is going to come out of it all smelling of roses, I think Ireland will be particularly vulnerable, and I'm not at all sure that a level of suffering will convince the UK to change course easily.

What crime ?

There's isn't one person in this thread nor the government who thing Ireland are going to come out of this hopping and skipping. That's why we've spent two years trying to get the UK to come to it's senses

Whilst at the same time having a wide scale large campaign to shore ourselves up against its impact. I think Ireland at this point is as ready as its ever going to be.

What I'm confused about is where you think we as a nation think there will be little impact . like can you point to any actual examples of this that makes you make such a statement?

Strazdas · 10-02-2019 8:39pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The big issue is that the people who voted Leave are very far from homogeneous.

No possible Brexit will satisfy most of them as each has their own little red lines.

Immigration is a complete non-issue because if the UK hasn't used the rules to stop people coming in up to now why would it change ?

No politician will permanently fix the pothole that keep getting them re-elected.

Brexit was always doomed for this very reason. How could they ever make it work once out of the EU? There are about ten different versions of Brexiteers, each looking for their own variety of Brexit. Some of the Brexiteers are accusing others of being traitors and closet Remainers for not agreeing with their version.

prawnsambo · 10-02-2019 8:51pm

Strazdas wrote: »

Brexit was always doomed for this very reason. How could they ever make it work once out of the EU? There are about ten different versions of Brexiteers, each looking for their own variety of Brexit. Some of the Brexiteers are accusing others of being traitors and closet Remainers for not agreeing with their version.

It's the family tree of the People's front of Judea in that respect. And as we get closer to brexit day, the more will insist that a hard brexit is what they wanted all along. Indeed this is exactly what they voted for. And it's all driven by the 'winner takes all' mentality that refuses to admit that what they won was the booby prize.

Christy42 · 10-02-2019 8:57pm

Strazdas wrote: »

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The big issue is that the people who voted Leave are very far from homogeneous.

No possible Brexit will satisfy most of them as each has their own little red lines.

Immigration is a complete non-issue because if the UK hasn't used the rules to stop people coming in up to now why would it change ?

No politician will permanently fix the pothole that keep getting them re-elected.

Brexit was always doomed for this very reason. How could they ever make it work once out of the EU? There are about ten different versions of Brexiteers, each looking for their own variety of Brexit. Some of the Brexiteers are accusing others of being traitors and closet Remainers for not agreeing with their version.

This is a big point. A decent chunk of the media has branded anyone who does not agree with their political opinion as traitors. There is a serious fascist element in the Leave ranks. I doubt it is a majority or anything but their effect on the media is frightening. One wonders where it could lead after Brexit.

eagle eye · 10-02-2019 9:00pm

Strazdas wrote:

Brexit was always doomed for this very reason. How could they ever make it work once out of the EU? There are about ten different versions of Brexiteers, each looking for their own variety of Brexit. Some of the Brexiteers are accusing others of being traitors and closet Remainers for not agreeing with their version.

Everybody is guessing as to what will happen with a hard Brexit.
People point to current trade agreements. It's not like these haven't been broken before.
It's not like we haven't seen countries go to the verge of war and then make up and create new trade agreements.
The UK is a big enough country to make a fist of it outside the EU.
Now I'm not saying this will happen and it's highly unlikely to with all the idiots currently in the HoC at the minute. I'm just pointing out that all the predictions for the UK post Brexit are guesswork. You can state all the facts about trade agreements all you want but nothing is set in stone.
We'll be moving on to another country looking to get out of the EU pretty soon is my guess. Greece and Italy could decide to want out at any time.
Just so you are aware I don't want a hard Brexit, I want a deal done because that's the only way the ROI doesn't suffer greatly.

prawnsambo · 10-02-2019 9:10pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Everybody is guessing as to what will happen with a hard Brexit.
People point to current trade agreements. It's not like these haven't been broken before.
It's not like we haven't seen countries go to the verge of war and then make up and create new trade agreements.
The UK is a big enough country to make a fist of it outside the EU.
Now I'm not saying this will happen and it's highly unlikely to with all the idiots currently in the HoC at the minute. I'm just pointing out that all the predictions for the UK post Brexit are guesswork. You can state all the facts about trade agreements all you want but nothing is set in stone.
We'll be moving on to another country looking to get out of the EU pretty soon is my guess. Greece and Italy could decide to want out at any time.
Just so you are aware I don't want a hard Brexit, I want a deal done because that's the only way the ROI doesn't suffer greatly.

It's not that mysterious what happens. There are rules. We know them. But these six words are ones that should make your skin crawl: "The Treaties will cease to apply"

Nody · 10-02-2019 9:13pm

eagle eye wrote: »

We'll be moving on to another country looking to get out of the EU pretty soon is my guess. Greece and Italy could decide to want out at any time.
Just so you are aware I don't want a hard Brexit, I want a deal done because that's the only way the ROI doesn't suffer greatly.

You mean the same Italy that had it's two most populistic anti EU parties join for government and quietly drop the whole "leaving EU and the euro" part of their programs? I don't expect we'll see any country wanting to get out of EU for another decade simply because the car crash UK has made of it all.

paddywroks · 10-02-2019 9:15pm

I'm curious about this talk about border poll's and a UI in the event of a no deal brexit. If no deal breaks provisions of the GFA, wouldn't the provisions about a border poll and everything else become invalidated?

prawnsambo · 10-02-2019 9:17pm

paddywroks wrote: »

I'm curious about this talk about border poll's and a UI in the event of a no deal brexit. If no deal breaks provisions of the GFA, would the provisions about a border poll and everything else become invalidated?

No. The agreement still stands. The things it sought to end, well that's what we're afraid of.

CelticRambler · 10-02-2019 9:27pm

eagle eye wrote: »

The UK is a big enough country to make a fist of it outside the EU.
Now I'm not saying this will happen and it's highly unlikely to with all the idiots currently in the HoC at the minute. I'm just pointing out that all the predictions for the UK post Brexit are guesswork. You can state all the facts about trade agreements all you want but nothing is set in stone.

No, nothing is set in stone - but there's plenty of precedent, starting with the simple truth that no trade deall ever gets signed unless both sides feel they're getting something out of it. At the moment, the UK has very little to give, other than a market of 60m people and the prospect of visas for anyone who wants one. The have virtually no native industry, virtually no agricultural exports, virtually no surplus of oil/gas/minerals that they can export ... What they did have, and what was really valuable, was an English-speaking base with access to the EU's population of 500m for financial and other services. That's gone now; what's going to make up for the loss? It's not guesswork to say "ummmm ... nothing?"

eagle eye · 10-02-2019 9:27pm

prawnsambo wrote:

It's not that mysterious what happens. There are rules. We know them. But these six words are ones that should make your skin crawl: "The Treaties will cease to apply"

Famous old quote, 'Rules are made to be broken'. Do you think the UK are not going to try and break the rules if there's a hard brexit?

Strazdas · 10-02-2019 9:27pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Everybody is guessing as to what will happen with a hard Brexit.
People point to current trade agreements. It's not like these haven't been broken before.
It's not like we haven't seen countries go to the verge of war and then make up and create new trade agreements.
The UK is a big enough country to make a fist of it outside the EU.
Now I'm not saying this will happen and it's highly unlikely to with all the idiots currently in the HoC at the minute. I'm just pointing out that all the predictions for the UK post Brexit are guesswork. You can state all the facts about trade agreements all you want but nothing is set in stone.
We'll be moving on to another country looking to get out of the EU pretty soon is my guess. Greece and Italy could decide to want out at any time.
Just so you are aware I don't want a hard Brexit, I want a deal done because that's the only way the ROI doesn't suffer greatly.

Britain going for No Deal would be a freakish event though. The UK unilaterally ripping up 50 years worth of treaties, trade deals and agreements with its 27 nearest neighbours and with no plans to replace them with anything would be quite unprecedented......no democracy anywhere in the world has ever done such a thing.

An Ciarraioch · 10-02-2019 9:29pm

Also, the GFA would be expected to stand in the event of a united Ireland, which would give unionists the same guarantees as a minority that nationalists enjoy now.

Irish Praetorian · 10-02-2019 9:35pm

listermint wrote: »

What crime ?

There's isn't one person in this thread nor the government who thing Ireland are going to come out of this hopping and skipping. That's why we've spent two years trying to get the UK to come to it's senses

Whilst at the same time having a wide scale large campaign to shore ourselves up against its impact. I think Ireland at this point is as ready as its ever going to be.

What I'm confused about is where you think we as a nation think there will be little impact . like can you point to any actual examples of this that makes you make such a statement?

The crime I was referring to was Hubris, or rather overconfidence, which always struck me as something the Brexiteers had in spades, leading me to worry if perhaps we had been infected by the same disease.

Truth be told I've wandered off topic and dragged conversations with my personal circle into this thread. I'm still left worried about what happens on March 29th and I'm not at all confident that there's going to be a deal. I suppose the only solid question is how we prepare for a no deal and how we can mitigate the damage.

prawnsambo · 10-02-2019 9:39pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Famous old quote, 'Rules are made to be broken'. Do you think the UK are not going to try and break the rules if there's a hard brexit?

Seriously? These rules are far bigger than the UK. This isn't some sort of local dispute. The UK crashing out is exactly like falling overboard with a bad head wound in the South China Sea.

listermint · 10-02-2019 9:42pm

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

The crime I was referring to was Hubris, or rather overconfidence, which always struck me as something the Brexiteers had in spades, leading me to worry if perhaps we had been infected by the same disease.

Truth be told I've wandered off topic and dragged conversations with my personal circle into this thread. I'm still left worried about what happens on March 29th and I'm not at all confident that there's going to be a deal. I suppose the only solid question is how we prepare for a no deal and how we can mitigate the damage.

So you don't understand that we've spent two years preparing for this then ?

No one is saying it's going to be roses. Why did you repeat that ? Where's the over confidence?

We've spent two years being as prepared as we can be. And no none of this is off topic.

First Up · 10-02-2019 9:44pm

eagle eye wrote:

Famous old quote, 'Rules are made to be broken'. Do you think the UK are not going to try and break the rules if there's a hard brexit?

In what way do you see them trying to break the rules?

jochenstacker · 10-02-2019 10:02pm

First Up wrote: »

eagle eye wrote:

Famous old quote, 'Rules are made to be broken'. Do you think the UK are not going to try and break the rules if there's a hard brexit?

In what way do you see them trying to break the rules?

The belief is that, in true Blitz fashion, the British Bulldog spirit will prevail and plucky little England will miraculously find the magic solution that will make it all right again and they will sail off into the sunset with giant Union Jack sails, queue end credits and Bond theme sung by Shirley Bassey.
Any minute now, aaany minute.....now...now...dammit, why's nothing happening.....

Irish Praetorian · 10-02-2019 10:02pm

listermint wrote: »

So you don't understand that we've spent two years preparing for this then ?

No one is saying it's going to be roses. Why did you repeat that ? Where's the over confidence?

We've spent two years being as prepared as we can be. And no none of this is off topic.

Oh I am aware of the noises that occasionally emerge from government agencies about attempting to prepare for a no-deal. I am however, also perturbed by the fact that such preparation may well be, as you have pointed out, insufficient to guard us from the future economic difficulties we expect to arise out of Brexit. Is such concern unwarranted in your view?

And my point about overconfidence was particularly directed at your comment about the UK's future economic prospects, specifically; 'Westminster won't have the finances to sustain he North outside the EU . The recession will hit the UK hard , very hard. It will struggle as it does today to keep its own northern areas of England ticking over.' - You see to me what you say sounds correct and likely, but it's something that I feel to be intuitively true rather than something where I can point to a set of economic statistics to support me. As with our own situation, the inability to get a solid picture of the UK's economic future disturbs me.

prawnsambo · 10-02-2019 10:09pm

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Oh I am aware of the noises that occasionally emerge from government agencies about attempting to prepare for a no-deal. I am however, also perturbed by the fact that such preparation may well be, as you have pointed out, insufficient to guard us from the future economic difficulties we expect to arise out of Brexit. Is such concern unwarranted in your view?

And my point about overconfidence was particularly directed at your comment about the UK's future economic prospects, specifically; 'Westminster won't have the finances to sustain he North outside the EU . The recession will hit the UK hard , very hard. It will struggle as it does today to keep its own northern areas of England ticking over.' - You see to me what you say sounds correct and likely, but it's something that I feel to be intuitively true rather than something where I can point to a set of economic statistics to support me. As with our own situation, the inability to get a solid picture of the UK's economic future disturbs me.

There are plenty of forecasts out there to move you from intuition to understanding. The Bank of England would be one place to start.

Irish Praetorian · 10-02-2019 10:14pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

There are plenty of forecasts out there to move you from intuition to understanding. The Bank of England would be one place to start.

Perhaps you are right, I suspect I've spent too long trying to understand the Brexiteer mind that some of the miasma has infected me - the first thing that came to mind reading your post was a ruddy faced older gentleman warbling 'pshaw polls before the referendum!'

The horror.

4068ac1elhodqr · 10-02-2019 10:18pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Famous old quote, 'Rules are made to be broken'. Do you think the UK are not going to try and break the rules if there's a hard brexit?

Rules are made to be negotiated.

(Unless you've involved with emmerging creative technologies, dynamic maverick solutions to complex problems or innovative process efficency hacks or something).

An interesting development spotted across tabloids yesterday. Not one, but approx x25c seperate articles defaming the cult figure 'JC' (Corbyn) in one day.

It seems the establishment are taking the prospect of Jezz becoming the new PM serious. They have turned the anti-jc campaign to full flow with an added powerwash cycle.

Fair enough one story reported he bedded that Abbot wan, which is unforgivable in most universes.

downcow · 10-02-2019 10:19pm

Infini wrote: »

1) Do you really believe that there wont be a UI in that event?
2) What do you think of the DUP in all this? Do you really think they're representing you and your friends or themselves and an outdated ideology that doesn't stand up to scrutiny? What other group there do you feel better represents you politically?
3) Do you fear this? If so why? or would you consider this an opportunity for yourself if it does happen? Remember a UI might be ideologically opposed for some unionists but would it be really that bad considering that it could be economically beneficial for you and others?
4) If a UI become's an inevitability what would YOU want out of it. Forget wether it will or wont happen for a moment and consider that it's going to happen: What guarantees or conditions would you like from this that satify's you?

Fair questions
1). I don’t think a UI will happen but I am realistic enough to know I could be wrong
2) they they represent a fair proportion on the unionist community. 50% maybe not even. But the ridiculous structure of Stormont means they are safe as both communities vote for a winner who can keep the others out. UUP represents me fairly close (or at least the liberal side of UUP)
3) no
4). Tough question to countenance. As tough as the question that people are refusing to answer for me. But I will try. I haven’t time right now as I’d like to do it justice. But I guess Space for our culture to exist. New anthem. New flag. Orange culture and bands being as accepted as Irish language and the gaa and equal funding pro rata. I think the hardest thing to lose would be my beloved football team NI

alloywheel · 10-02-2019 10:21pm

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

I'm still left worried about what happens on March 29th

After many decades of being a pillar of the EEC / EU, since the early seventies, and its second biggest net contributor, the UK has has enough and has democratically voted to leave. Say what you like about the British, but when they say they will do something, they do it. They do not surrender. They do not have further referendums or get bribed to change their mind, like us. They will leave on March 29th, they have had enough. The EU saying the Brexiters have a special place in Hell just strengthens their resolve and does not help matters.

The question is what will happen on this island? The British and the Unionists do not want a hard border, but my bet is that the EU will force us to have a hard border.

It reminds me of visiting Gibraltar many decades years ago. The British symbolically had their gates open, while only a stones throw away the Spanish had their gates closed, so no traffic could pass.

The British were always a trading country with the rest of the world, that is how they controlled a quarter of the world at one stage, they like trading with the world.

4068ac1elhodqr · 10-02-2019 10:29pm

alloywheel wrote: »

The British were always a trading country with the rest of the world, that is how they controlled a quarter of the world at one stage, they like trading with the world.

A bit like say the folks of the Vikings/Conquest/SpanishArmada/Rome liked a nice wee afternoon stroll, fast paced walk or even just a horseback jolly about and day of sailing.

They walked about as much and as far as they could, all nice chaps.

Irishmale0399 · 10-02-2019 10:29pm

alloywheel wrote: »

After many decades of being a pillar of the EEC / EU, since the early seventies, and its second biggest net contributor, the UK has has enough and has democratically voted to leave. Say what you like about the British, but when they say they will do something, they do it. They do not surrender. They do not have further referendums or get bribed to change their mind, like us. They will leave on March 29th, they have had enough. The EU saying the Brexiters have a special place in Hell just strengthens their resolve and does not help matters.

The question is what will happen on this island? The British and the Unionists do not want a hard border, but my bet is that the EU will force us to have a hard border.

It reminds me of visiting Gibraltar many decades years ago. The British symbolically had their gates open, while only a stones throw away the Spanish had their gates closed, so no traffic could pass.

The British were always a trading country with the rest of the world, that is how they controlled a quarter of the world at one stage, they like trading with the world.

Thats what the UK are saying right now. Wait until the first illegal crosses into Northern Ireland, on router to Manchester, London or whereever and the EU refuses to take them back if caught....

Wait until the first lads are caught smuggling into the UK over the Irish borders at the expense of the UK economy.....

They will implement a border....and doing so will blame everyone else.

CelticRambler · 10-02-2019 10:30pm

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Truth be told I've wandered off topic and dragged conversations with my personal circle into this thread. I'm still left worried about what happens on March 29th and I'm not at all confident that there's going to be a deal. I suppose the only solid question is how we prepare for a no deal and how we can mitigate the damage.

How we prepare is by first realising that Brexit will cause damage. And - to cite an example from my "personal circle" - back in Dec 2016, I was at a smallish gathering of Irish graduates to which our local Ambassador had been invited, but who presented her excuses and made a hasty exit. Dealing with collateral damage to Ireland from an unwanted Brexit was a greater priority than a roomful of de facto small-A ambassadors.

For once in our country's history, our political establishment has done everything possible to present a united front on behalf of our interest, an attitude that has been matched by their (our) counterparts in the EU. While there are, undoubtedly, still some "unknown unknowns" - not least WTF do the Brits want? - Ireland is an integral part of the world's largest trading bloc, and we can call on those resources to help us weather the storm.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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