Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Irish Praetorian · 27-02-2019 12:09am

youcantakethat wrote: »

Stand on its own two feet, as the sixth biggest economy in the world, and which still exports more outside the EU than to within the EU.

In what sense? Does that still mean trading with the rest of the world or being some kind of freeport maybe or something else?

listermint · 27-02-2019 12:12am

youcantakethat wrote: »

Stand on its own two feet, as the sixth biggest economy in the world, and which still exports more outside the EU than to within the EU.

Ughh this had been pulled apart so many times.

Where do these posters come from

Christy42 · 27-02-2019 12:14am

listermint wrote: »

youcantakethat wrote: »

Stand on its own two feet, as the sixth biggest economy in the world, and which still exports more outside the EU than to within the EU.

Ughh this had been pulled apart so many times.

Where do these posters come from

I could see it if the EU was insular and was not the best way for the UK to trade with the rest of the world.

Imreoir2 · 27-02-2019 12:14am

youcantakethat wrote: »

Stand on its own two feet, as the sixth biggest economy in the world, and which still exports more outside the EU than to within the EU.

Remember when it was the fifth, before the Brexit vote?

The EU is by far the UK's most important trading partner, good luck, you will need it.

54and56 · 27-02-2019 12:15am

youcantakethat wrote: »

lol. Ask the millions of unemployed in Europe how they feel about the "European spirit". (EU unemployment is double UK unemployment).

As pointed out earlier, in 1973 when the UK joined the EEC as its eighth member, the EEC the had 31% of world economic output. Two years ago, with a whooping 28 members, the EU just had 17% of world economic output, which underlies the shrinking role of the EU in the world economy. It will get worse.

When all else fails use percentages to prop up your argument

E.G. Liverpool FC had 50m supporters worldwide in 2012 and now in 2019 have 55m supporters. They have only grown 10% in 7 years :eek:

Accrington Stanley on the other hand had 1,500 supporters worldwide in 2012 and now in 2019 have 3,000 supporters. They have grown 100% in 7 years

Brexiteers -> Let's stop selling our replica shirts to Liverpool fans and sell to Accrington Stanley instead. Much better idea.

Average Joe -> 90% of growth is coming from outside the EU, let's leave with a No Deal and forget about the EU

youcantakethat · 27-02-2019 12:20am

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

and forget about the EU

I do not think they want to forget about the EU. They probably want to forget about helping to pay for the 200 Irish language translators in Brussels, and plenty more time wasters, but you are truly confused is you think they want to forget about the EU.

ancapailldorcha · 27-02-2019 12:24am

youcantakethat wrote: »

I do not think they want to forget about the EU. They probably want to forget about helping to pay for the 200 Irish language translators in Brussels, and plenty more time wasters, but you are truly confused is you think they want to forget about the EU.

Don't drag the thread off topic please.

Artifacting · 27-02-2019 12:35am

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

I'm having a little trouble understanding this line of argument, you're essentially stating that the EU is a shrinking part of the world economy - which seems fair - so the UK (which is also a shrinking part of the world economy) instead of cooperating with other mature economies undergoing a similar process, should instead...? Try to do better as an even smaller part of the world economy? Rush to the bottom? Try to escape it all in some kind of neo-autarky?

The EU and the US haven't shrunken, rather other key economies, notably in Asia grew, actually creating bigger markets for EU and US goods and services. If you go back to 1973 much more of the world was underdeveloped economically.

It would be like saying that two people in your street were able to have nice lifestyles and afford cars and holidays in 1973 and now in 2019 ten people are able to afford cars and holidays. Did you get poorer? No! Of course not.

Irish Praetorian · 27-02-2019 12:38am

Artifacting wrote: »

The EU and the US haven't shrunken, rather other key economies, notably in Asia grew, actually creating bigger markets for EU and US goods and services. If you go back to 1973 much more of the world was underdeveloped economically.

It would be like saying that two people in your hillahet were able to have nice lifestyles and afford cars and holidays in 1973 and now in 2019 ten people are able to afford cars and holidays. Did you get poorer? No! Of course not.

Yes I think we're both aware of that hence why my question was directed at him.

FrancieBrady · 27-02-2019 12:39am

Artifacting wrote: »

The EU and the US haven't shrunken, rather other key economies, notably in Asia grew, actually creating bigger markets for EU and US goods and services. If you go back to 1973 much more of the world was underdeveloped economically.

It would be like saying that two people in your hillahet were able to have nice lifestyles and afford cars and holidays in 1973 and now in 2019 ten people are able to afford cars and holidays. Did you get poorer? No! Of course not.

This simple logic, based in actual fact, has proved impossible to explain to Brexiters. They just do not want to, or dare, to hear it.

Artifacting · 27-02-2019 12:49am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

This simple logic, based in actual fact, has proved impossible to explain to Brexiters. They just do not want to, or dare, to hear it.

Well, we've entered into a period of time where experts and facts are shunned, politicians are shunned and where opinion, feelings and group think are all that matters. That's where we get Brexiteers, Trump, anti scientific movements: climate change denial, anti environmentalism, anti vaxxers and even flat earthers and all the bonkers conspiracy theories.

It's a weird time where logic isn't going to win an argument.

27-02-2019 12:55am

youcantakethat wrote: »

lol. Ask the millions of unemployed in Europe how they feel about the "European spirit". (EU unemployment is double UK unemployment).

As pointed out earlier, in 1973 when the UK joined the EEC as its eighth member, the EEC the had 31% of world economic output. Two years ago, with a whooping 28 members, the EU just had 17% of world economic output, which underlies the shrinking role of the EU in the world economy. It will get worse.

Yes. But when your definition of employment is:

People aged 16 and over who did one hour or more of paid work per week (as an employee or self-employed),
Those who had a job that they were temporarily away from,
Those on government-supported training and employment programmes,
Those working in family businesses who benefit from the profits of those businesses but who do not receive a formal wage or salary

Source:https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/methodologies/aguidetolabourmarketstatistics#employment

It is very easy to have low unemployment figures.

I don't know how the EU calculate their unemployed rate, but I would hazard a guess that it would involve more than a measly one hour a week, or unpaid family work.

Edited to add:
Regarding your second point, are you saying the UK joining the EEC made it lose 14% of it's economic output? Imagine if they actually sent MEP's that wanted to be there, and not buffoons like Farage!

54and56 · 27-02-2019 12:59am

Artifacting wrote: »

Well, we've entered into a period of time where experts and facts are shunned, politicians are shunned and where opinion, feelings and group think are all that matters. That's where we get Brexiteers, Trump, anti scientific movements: climate change denial, anti environmentalism, anti vaxxers and even flat earthers and all the bonkers conspiracy theories.

It's a weird time where logic isn't going to win an argument.

I like to think of them as the special Trump/Brexit voting "I can't see the hour hand move so therefore it doesn't move" group who may account for X% of people on the planet but only account for X-45% of the collective IQ on the planet.

youcantakethat · 27-02-2019 1:17am

Deleted User wrote: »

It is very easy to have low unemployment figures.

Not all that easy, I remember the government here "back in the old days" trying every trick in the book to massage the unemployment figures, having fas courses and back to work schemes and what not, and unemployment was still astonishingly high at the time, with high net emigration etc.

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't know how the EU calculate their unemployed rate,

You should look it up so. Did you know the seasonally adjusted youth unemployment rate in Spain in December was at 32.7 percent. If you were unemployed in Italy or Greece or Spain or Portugal you would have plenty of time to know how the EU does things.

27-02-2019 1:28am

These posts don't tie in with what you posted yesterday or the day before. Something like "There are more Irish speakers here."

That obviously sounds like you're not in the Republic, yet you talk now like the Irish government is yours. Where are you from?

fash · 27-02-2019 7:27am

youcantakethat wrote: »

Maybe they are waiting to see how the British get on against the German and French bullies first? Who could blame them for that?

The only bullies in this process have been the UK - threatening that the EU will be "crushed", " citizens of nowhere", starving the Irish (again), Ireland should know its place, briefing against Ireland throughout Europe, the "UK is a more important than Ireland- surely you are not going to take their economic and political interests above UK's deal preferences" - and their entire world view that rules are for others, etc. etc.

Like all bullies, when their bullying is unsuccessful, they don't know what to do.

The UK's complete ignoring of its obligations in relation to the GFA and its cynical attempts to manipulate the border have been appalling.
How can any person familiar with the long history of the UK's involvement in Ireland could have any sympathy for them in this is entirely beyond me.

Further to imply that it is the French and Germans maintaining the backstop requirement (as you have done here) - and that it is not an Irish concern - or that the French or Germans are "bullying" the UK by acceding to Ireland's interests is frankly insane nonsense.
Aside from that, it clearly is not how the EU works - it is clearly not something run by France or Germany.

But aside from all that, what is wrong with France (due example) "bullying" the UK? Doesn't the UK - 850 years of oppression and genocide in Ireland etc.- deserve it?
Who could blame the French and Germans for all of the unpunished attrocities and crimes against humanity committed by the British over the centuries (E.g. the fire-bombing of the civilian population of Dresden)?
In addition, is the UK a delicate flower that can only survive within the protection of the EU? Are you saying Brexit was a terrible and horrific mistake made by people with delusions of the UK's standing in the world?

Zubeneschamali · 27-02-2019 7:39am

Headshot wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/26/economy-could-shrink-by-9-percent-under-no-deal-brexit-government-says

This is the Guardian, not a Tory paper, yet they ignore the fact that the report is pie-in-the-sky nonsense. The headline 9% which the Guardian thinks is bad news is a joke - the [Insert title of report] report assumes a planned, smooth transition to WTO terms, and explicitly states that it ignores any chaos after 29th March.

It is a ridiculously optimistic fantasy.

Zubeneschamali · 27-02-2019 7:42am

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

the UK (which is also a shrinking part of the world economy) instead of cooperating with other mature economies undergoing a similar process, should instead...?

Clearly the UK needs to leave the world economy, and take advantage of the growth opportunities which come from being the biggest economy on Mars.

Zubeneschamali · 27-02-2019 7:55am

Artifacting wrote: »

It would be like saying that two people in your street were able to have nice lifestyles and afford cars and holidays in 1973 and now in 2019 ten people are able to afford cars and holidays. Did you get poorer? No! Of course not.

This seems to be part of the problem - the Brexiteers are very bound up in being "Great" Britain. They are not happy with the UK being an equal in the EU, they think they are rightful leaders, and if they can't lead, they will quit and lead a new club.

In your analogy, they think the neighbours on the street are getting notions, and they are going to move to a poorer street where they will be the top dog again.

In a poorer part of town, and the house is not as nice as the one they are in now, and the garden is tiny, but they can once again be the best on their street.

fash · 27-02-2019 9:14am

youcantakethat wrote: »

Stand on its own two feet, as the sixth biggest economy in the world, and which still exports more outside the EU than to within the EU.

It was 5th biggest not so long ago. Soon to be 7th. Then 8th...

Tell me how · 27-02-2019 9:14am

youcantakethat wrote: »

Was there not a famous Irish politician who went over to England just before the referendum, and he put his foot in it, and his attempt to convince the undecided to vote "Remain" backfired. In the words of some English, they were reminded where some of the tens of billions of pounds of EU contributions had gone. They did not like it (would we like it if an English leading politician come over here a few days before a referendum and told us how to vote) and the vote swung.

Or maybe the vote swung due to something in the wind. Or maybe the electorate remembered that in 1973 when the UK joined the EEC as its eighth member, the EEC the had 31% of world economic output. Two years ago, with a whooping 28 members, the EU just had 17% of world economic output, which underlies the shrinking role of the EU in the world economy.

I'd say this had a more significant impact than some hypothetical about an Irish politician whose name you can't remember influencing 70M people.

Targeted ads.

Facebook has released details of scores of online ads targeted at its users by Brexiteers during the EU referendum campaign.

Questions have been raised over the use of online ads, which can be targeted at specific individuals believed to be susceptible to the message, while passing under the radar of the rest of the electorate.

Also, in terms of the benefit to the UK in joining the EU.

And the growth which UK households experienced in comparison with the US.

Median%20Growth.png

volchitsa · 27-02-2019 9:15am

youcantakethat wrote: »

You should look it up so. Did you know the seasonally adjusted youth unemployment rate in Spain in December was at 32.7 percent. If you were unemployed in Italy or Greece or Spain or Portugal you would have plenty of time to know how the EU does things.

Or Germany at 3%, the Czech Republic (2.2%) or a number of other EU countries with lower unemployment rates than the UK, so what's your point really?

RobMc59 · 27-02-2019 9:18am

fash wrote: »

The only bullies in this process have been the UK - threatening that the EU will be "crushed", " citizens of nowhere", starving the Irish (again), Ireland should know its place, briefing against Ireland throughout Europe, the "UK is a more important than Ireland- surely you are not going to take their economic and political interests above UK's deal preferences" - and their entire world view that rules are for others, etc. etc.

Like all bullies, when their bullying is unsuccessful, they don't know what to do.

The UK's complete ignoring of its obligations in relation to the GFA and its cynical attempts to manipulate the border have been appalling.
How can any person familiar with the long history of the UK's involvement in Ireland could have any sympathy for them in this is entirely beyond me.

Further to imply that it is the French and Germans maintaining the backstop requirement (as you have done here) - and that it is not an Irish concern - or that the French or Germans are "bullying" the UK by acceding to Ireland's interests is frankly insane nonsense.
Aside from that, it clearly is not how the EU works - it is clearly not something run by France or Germany.

But aside from all that, what is wrong with France (due example) "bullying" the UK? Doesn't the UK - 850 years of oppression and genocide in Ireland etc.- deserve it?
Who could blame the French and Germans for all of the unpunished attrocities and crimes against humanity committed by the British over the centuries (E.g. the fire-bombing of the civilian population of Dresden)?
In addition, is the UK a delicate flower that can only survive within the protection of the EU? Are you saying Brexit was a terrible and horrific mistake made by people with delusions of the UK's standing in the world?

I agree with you until the last section when you go totally off subject talking about "unpunished atrocities "and to use events of WW2 as examples is way over the top imo.

ancapailldorcha · 27-02-2019 9:27am

Don't insult other posters please. Post deleted.

fash · 27-02-2019 9:41am

RobMc59 wrote: »

I agree with you until the last section when you go totally off subject talking about "unpunished atrocities "and to use events of WW2 as examples is way over the top imo.

Criticism fully accepted- I was getting overly emotional in responding to a post I particularly disliked.
Although I think there are some parts of that thought that can reasonably stand up:
The UK (as with other countries with a history of power- Germany, France) does have a long list of atrocities which it has committed and suffered- much worse than the "humiliation" of not being given a delusional "have cake and eat it" Brexit. Germany suffered considerably unnecessarily (let's leave aside that which was necessary) - yet they were reasonably happy to let by gones be by gones - it is all part of the rough and tumble of the"real world" outside the EU - the world to which the UK will shortly be returning as a much reduced power potentially in a very weakened state if it leaves with no deal.

Sam Russell · 27-02-2019 9:56am

youcantakethat wrote: »

Stand on its own two feet, as the sixth biggest economy in the world, and which still exports more outside the EU than to within the EU.

It was the fifth biggest economy before they voted for Brexit - so going somewhere in this brave new world - down.

RobMc59 · 27-02-2019 10:02am

fash wrote: »

Criticism fully accepted- I was getting overly emotional in responding to a post I particularly disliked.
Although I think there are some parts of that thought that can reasonably stand up:
The UK (as with other countries with a history of power- Germany, France) does have a long list of atrocities which it has committed and suffered- much worse than the "humiliation" of not being given a delusional "have cake and eat it" Brexit. Germany suffered considerably unnecessarily (let's leave aside that which was necessary) - yet they were reasonably happy to let by gones be by gones - it is all part of the rough and tumble of the"real world" outside the EU - the world to which the UK will shortly be returning as a much reduced power potentially in a very weakened state if it leaves with no deal.

Brexit has brought everything bad about the UK out into the light of day-an over inflated, self delusion of its position in the world and the politicians on both sides putting their own interests before the country-what makes it more depressing is the fact there doesn't appear to be an outstanding voice of reason to bring the UK back from the brink-hopefully one of the independent group may fit the bill.

Leroy42 · 27-02-2019 10:09am

The government released a report yesterday saying that under No Deal, which the government is actively talking about and will actually hold a vote on, will impact the economy by 9% over the coming years. So they will drop a further 9% behind those countries around them.

And the weirdest thing is the lack of an outcry on the media. Hardly a ripple. Yeah some headlines but most of the reporting is written on the view that this will probably not happen rather than asking why the government, having known about this for months, have persisted with such a policy wasting money on preparations for such an avoidable event.

The PM should be dragged back into the HoC to explain when she was made aware of these findings and why she has deliberately withheld them and still continues to allow even the possibility of a no Deal.
The likes of JRM should be handed a copy of the report and demanded that he reassure the country that nobody will lose out, that no jobs will be lost, that the country will be better off in the short, medium and long term from his stated policy of No deal. And if he doesn't accept the finings in the reports, what he he using for an analysis. He should also be asked to explain why it is government policy that GATT 24 is not applicable and what is his plan now.

This phoney war whereby these stories are merely reported as another opinion needs to stop. The UK needs to start taking this seriously.

It appears that many businesses and the public are still under the impression that it will all somehow simply work itself out, no need to do anything as everything will simply be ok. The one way for this to happen, revoke A50, is currently not even being considered.

prawnsambo · 27-02-2019 10:12am

RobMc59 wrote: »

Brexit has brought everything bad about the UK out into the light of day-an over inflated, self delusion of its position in the world and the politicians on both sides putting their own interests before the country-what makes it more depressing is the fact there doesn't appear to be an outstanding voice of reason to bring the UK back from the brink-hopefully one of the independent group may fit the bill.

To be fair, there are a few politicians in Westminster who shine out like diamonds in a dung heap. Jess Phillips for one.

seamus · 27-02-2019 10:13am

Leroy42 wrote: »

And the weirdest thing is the lack of an outcry on the media. Hardly a ripple. Yeah some headlines but most of the reporting is written on the view that this will probably not happen rather than asking why the government, having known about this for months, have persisted with such a policy wasting money on preparations for such an avoidable event.

It seems to me that the entire country, media and population alike, are certain that the UK will not leave without a deal. They can't say how it will be avoided, just that they know for certain that it will. So they refuse to even discuss it.

Maybe they'll be right in the end, but the collective head in the sand is really worrying.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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