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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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    #7172
    yosemitesam1
    Registered Users Posts: 2,948 ✭✭✭yosemitesam1


    minikin wrote: »
    Business Confidence (temporary) V. Dead Parents (Permanent)
    Get a grip the lot of ye.

    The coronavirus recession will be worse than 2008 meaning lots of dead parents because of an overreaction which left no money for more productive health spending


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    #7173
    minikin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭minikin


    Kauto wrote: »
    This lockdown should end immediately. Not likely as we have given Dr Tony and co a free run at things and the political leaders are petrified of making the correct decision.
    How is DR H able to keep a straight face in the press conferences every day whilst announcing less than 20 deaths(majority of whom were dying anyways) and continuing with the lockdown charade?
    I'm off for a weeks holidays down the country from today.

    Deaths are down to 20 a day BECAUSE of the lockdown... how are you not seeing the link here???

    Mad logic... let's remove airbags and seat belts from cars because most people don't die in car crashes.


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    #7174
    minikin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭minikin


    yosemitesam1 wrote: »
    The coronavirus recession will be worse than 2008 meaning lots of dead parents because of an overreaction which left no money for more productive health spending

    There'd be lots of money for 'more productive health spending' if we refused to fund treatment for late stage cancer patients too... or if we just euthanise anyone when they've completed their working lives... or anyone with a disability or chronic condition...

    There's more to life than fumbling in a greasy till - have a bit of humanity will ya?


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    #7175
    Thespoofer
    Registered Users Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭Thespoofer


    vladmydad wrote: »
    The damage being done is staggering. Economic suicide. Everyone now knows we should have just Isolated the vulnerable (nursing homes, immune compromised etc) and allowed everyone else get on with their lives. But we’re so far into this nonsense that governments won’t lose face, so we continue with the charade. In 10 years time this will be known as the biggest overreaction in human history.


    This. I feel they've opened Pandoras box.


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    #7176
    Metroid diorteM
    Registered Users Posts: 303 ✭✭Metroid diorteM


    Lockdown made sense until we knew what we were dealing with.

    Latest research from Korea says this thing doesnt stay long term in the body and that immune response prevents a followup reinfection.

    Get your vitamin D. Dont join crowds or parties for a while but it's time to get back to work.

    Now that we know it doesnt affect kids its time to open schools and creches.

    Anyone at risk wear a mask or one of these:
    https://www.safetycare.ie/Polycarbonate-250Mm-Visor


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    #7177
    Metroid diorteM
    Registered Users Posts: 303 ✭✭Metroid diorteM


    Here's the details on the Korean research that shows it doesnt spread from people who've recovered either:

    https://youtu.be/uATMbGK__Tg


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    #7178
    Redgirl82
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,252 ✭✭✭Redgirl82


    Kauto wrote: »
    We will never come out of lockdown if the medics are making the decisions. There comes a time when economic considerations will have to take precedence. It's crazy the country is still in Lockdown.

    So what economics training have you got?


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    #7179
    Redgirl82
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,252 ✭✭✭Redgirl82


    Metroid diorteM wrote: »
    Here's the details on the Korean research that shows it doesnt spread from people who've recovered either:

    https://youtu.be/uATMbGK__Tg

    Good plan, get everyone sick and whoever is left can go to work


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    #7180
    yosemitesam1
    Registered Users Posts: 2,948 ✭✭✭yosemitesam1


    minikin wrote: »
    There'd be lots of money for 'more productive health spending' if we refused to fund treatment for late stage cancer patients too... or if we just euthanise anyone when they've completed their working lives... or anyone with a disability or chronic condition...

    There wouldn't be, you're talking pennies there. This is many times greater.
    If the figure Harris was throwing out of 3,500 lives saved by lockdown is true, at a cost of €30-50 billion. That's a huge amount of money to add maybe 5 years to those lives. While at the same time families with young children can be forced to fundraise for the cost of life changing treatment that the hse won't fund.


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    #7181
    Stormyteacup
    Registered Users Posts: 986 ✭✭✭Stormyteacup


    minikin wrote: »
    There'd be lots of money for 'more productive health spending' if we refused to fund treatment for late stage cancer patients too... or if we just euthanise anyone when they've completed their working lives... or anyone with a disability or chronic condition...

    There's more to life than fumbling in a greasy till - have a bit of humanity will ya?

    Hate to break it to you but there’s already a max price our system will pay to extend your life. QALY in Ireland is between €20,000 and €45,000 per year.

    Would be fantastic if we could spend unlimited amount to give every sick person the chance to try all treatments available to cure/extend/improve quality of life.

    Not real life though.


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    #7182
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,553 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Metroid diorteM wrote: »
    Lockdown made sense until we knew what we were dealing with.

    Latest research from Korea says this thing doesnt stay long term in the body and that immune response prevents a followup reinfection.

    Get your vitamin D. Dont join crowds or parties for a while but it's time to get back to work.

    Now that we know it doesnt affect kids its time to open schools and creches.

    Anyone at risk wear a mask or one of these:
    https://www.safetycare.ie/Polycarbonate-250Mm-Visor

    The fact of the matter is the world does not know what we are dealing with.

    That is why things are as they are.

    Serious caution needs to be taken with this pathogen which poses a threat that we are both unprepared for and don't know the scope of.


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    #7183
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    padser wrote: »
    Forcing companies to go out of business has a huge economic toll. The notion that if the demand is there so other companies will expand to take the place of those that fail is dangerously simplistic.

    It's true in one sense in the long term - but its simply not true in a 6 / 12 / 18 month window in most industries.

    And that short term impact is huge, and has long term measures - let's imagine it's just hertz and in 3 months Eurocar has expanded to fill the void
    - workers in those companies lose their jobs and are out of work for 3 months. Most people live pay cheque to pay cheque - so those 3 months has a personal impact and hits their spending (they cancel health insurance, the cancel netflix etc)
    - your pension fund (that's your pension by the way in x years time) just had had Hertz default on its debt, so now your pension will be lower when you get it
    - the governement just had to pay 3 months unemployment to that hertz worker before they got hired by Eurocar - that's 3 months of spend that cant buy a new children's hospital
    - you know that netflix account that was cancelled in point 1? That's a new hire that netflix pushes out a month because growth is slower etc etc

    All of that is without evening starting to think about the company infrastructure lost when an industry loses a big player, or the higher prices we all pay when eurocar expands because its major competitor is now gone.

    We simply can't shut the economy down and expect everything to to back quickly to where it was. The economic toll will be enormous.

    Argue the toll is worth paying if you want - don't bury your head in the sand and pretend there is no economic toll.

    Pension funds will recover unless you are retiring this month. You had plenty of time to transfer your pension and investments to cash before this happened.

    Have survived the tach bust, bubble bust and will survive this. Every ten years a down turn happens.


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    #7184
    Redgirl82
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,252 ✭✭✭Redgirl82


    Not sure what the rest of you are up to but I have never been so busy, anyone I am talking to in my industry is booked up around the clock, normally on a Friday we are quietish but working right up till 6 last Friday.....

    Virtual workplace will end up killing em, I want to go back to office for a rest


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    #7185
    faceman
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,587 CMod ✭✭✭✭faceman


    Isnt the rule attack the post not the poster?

    The OP's tone aside, it is a valid concern being raised by many in society. You'd have to have your head in the sand to think that the economic toll coupled with the existing mental strain won't have a potentially huge and long lasting impact on Irish society. That isn't to say that the lockdown was unnecessary, but it is recognising that there is a point where economic and political decision making supercededs medical advice

    I was chatting to a GP friend yesterday. He said his practice has been, forgive the pun, dead for the lockdown. He said that there will be a 2nd wave but it won't be Coronavirus, it will be all the illness and sicknesses people have put off. He also was critical of the stopping of some cancer testing in the country.

    The economic damage of the crisis is going to be the worst we have seen since the Depression. Some industries can never start to recover until a treatment or vaccine is available. Leo is telling us some people will have to re-skill etc. These aren't just flick of the switch asks.

    The challenge with all this is twofold.

    1. It's near impossible to have a rational conversation about this. When we try, you either hear the 'whats more important your job or someone dying' viewpoint or that 'open the lockdown immediately'. Both are extreme views and dont help the discussion.

    2. The government is constantly moving the goalposts. The goal has been to flatten the curve, get the r0 rate below 1. We are now at 0.4, daily cases have been reduced to very low levels, there was no surge, other countries are starting to relax measures yet we are introducing more measures like the new quarantine for travellers. This is creating frustration as it further aggravates the uncertainty. Couple it with condescending comments from ministers like "this is not the time to be dickieing up the curtains" and you are antagonising an already fatigued, mostly compliant society.

    It feels to many that we need more input than just Holohan. Political and economic input on decision making, beyond that of Holohan seems a rationale consideration


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    #7186
    whisky_galore
    Registered Users Posts: 15,861 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    A business can be restarted, not easy or cheap but it's possible.

    Dead people, impossible to reanimate with current technology.


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    #7187
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,553 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    faceman wrote: »
    Isnt the rule attack the post not the poster?

    The OP's tone aside, it is a valid concern being raised by many in society. You'd have to have your head in the sand to think that the economic toll coupled with the existing mental strain won't have a potentially huge and long lasting impact on Irish society. That isn't to say that the lockdown was unnecessary, but it is recognising that there is a point

    I was chatting to a GP friend yesterday. He said his practice has been, forgive the pun, dead for the lockdown. He said that there will be a 2nd wave but it won't be Coronavirus, it will be all the illness and sicknesses people have put off. He also was critical of the stopping of some cancer testing in the country.

    The economic damage of the crisis is going to be the worst we have seen since the Depression. Some industries can never start to recover until a treatment or vaccine is available. Leo is telling us some people will have to resell etc. These aren't just flick of the switch asks.

    The challenge with all this is twofold.

    1. It's near impossible to have a rational conversation about this. When we try, you either here the 'whats more important your job or someone dying' viewpoint or that 'open the lockdown immediately'. Both are extreme views and dont help the discussion.

    2. The government is constantly moving the goalposts. The goal has been to flatten the curve, get the r0 rate below 1. We are now at 0.4, daily cases have been reduced to very low levels, there was no surge, other countries are starting to relax measures yet we are introducing more measures like the new quarantine for travellers. This is creating frustration as it further aggravates the uncertainty. Couple it with condescending comments from ministers like "this is not the time to be dickieing up the curtains" and you are antagonising an already fatigued, mostly compliant society.

    It feels to many that we need more input than just Holohan. Political and economic input on decision making, beyond that of Holohan seems a rationale consideration

    Your point is well made and a perfectly valid one. No one has suggested otherwise. I, for example, am against the travel quarantine because I think it is pointless and needlessly damaging.

    However, I would ask are you prepared to die on that cross you wear because it is highly likely this disease advances in the Autumn/Winter...and when it does no country will have the capacity to handle it.

    My argument here is that it is better to have less onerous but targeted restrictions until the end of the year.

    In a resurgence this would provide us with some latitude and allow everyday life continue so long as we were not overwhelmed. Life elsewhere could continue as normal.

    I really think that is the best play here. It opens us up whilst providing some defence. Not great for everyone but for the vast majority we can go about our lives as normal.


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    #7188
    Dog day
    Registered Users Posts: 190 ✭✭Dog day


    faceman wrote: »
    It feels to many that we need more input than just Holohan. Political and economic input on decision making, beyond that of Holohan seems a rationale consideration

    Excellent post Faceman. Extremist views by their very nature tend to over simplify the complex.

    A more well rounded approach now needs to be taken by our government in order to address the economic impact in addition to protecting the health of the nation.


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    #7189
    silverharp
    Registered Users Posts: 17,849 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    whisky_galore wrote: »
    A business can be restarted, not easy or cheap but it's possible.

    Dead people, impossible to reanimate with current technology.

    there is no non dead people solution, there has to be a balance with trying to compute what unemployment might be in 12 months time, 10% 15% 20%, or what social welfare will have to be switched off next year because the gov will run short of taxes. Will suicide levels explode because peoples lives are disintegrating?

    Even if the state could fine tune this, which it cant as there are too many variables, what is the "cost of a life?" , the HSE would always have been bound by costs of saving a life, for example they wouldn't spend a million euros to save the life of an 80 year old. It seems like the gov. might now, who agreed that?

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



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    #7190
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,467 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    whisky_galore wrote: »
    A business can be restarted, not easy or cheap but it's possible.

    Dead people, impossible to reanimate with current technology.

    Many if not most of those who get covid 19 in nursing homes are not sent to hospital.

    So, they aren't even trying to save a large number of the dying, who unfortunately were not long for this world anyways. And they are not trying to save the economy.


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    #7191
    bilbot79
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭bilbot79


    We were due a recession anyway


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    #7192
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    yosemitesam1 wrote: »
    There wouldn't be, you're talking pennies there. This is many times greater.
    If the figure Harris was throwing out of 3,500 lives saved by lockdown is true, at a cost of €30-50 billion. That's a huge amount of money to add maybe 5 years to those lives. While at the same time families with young children can be forced to fundraise for the cost of life changing treatment that the hse won't fund.

    How do you know this? How do you know the lockdown is saving lives by about 5 years?


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    #7193
    kaymin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,502 ✭✭✭kaymin


    whisky_galore wrote: »
    A business can be restarted, not easy or cheap but it's possible.

    Dead people, impossible to reanimate with current technology.

    Tell that to the people that will die from cancer, heart disease etc that wouldn't otherwise die but for the lockdown


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    #7194
    minikin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭minikin


    Stormyteacup wrote: »
    Hate to break it to you but there’s already a max price our system will pay to extend your life. QALY in Ireland is between €20,000 and €45,000 per year.

    Would be fantastic if we could spend unlimited amount to give every sick person the chance to try all treatments available to cure/extend/improve quality of life.

    Not real life though.

    Hate to break it to you but you've broken nothing new to me. I'm very familiar with the limitations of health spending in the normal course of events BUT, and this might come as a shock to you, this is not the normal course of events. However, even in the normal course of events, it is not always appropriate to use the cost-utility analysis - which is why a cost-effectiveness analysis is used instead.

    This is an emergency situation, much like the banking crisis of 2008. The state had no problem hanging that debt around our necks, it will have no problem doing the same for this existential threat too.

    We will get over it, we will recover in good time, it's only financial debt - we need to grow up and realise all states have debt. Sometimes, such as now, it's a debt incurred for good reason, other times it's not.

    We don't simply quantify the value of a person's life based on a r.o.i. equation - to do so is to renege on the social contract and to forget the contribution that person has made to society up to that point. A lot of these 'bed blockers' have worked their holes off, paying taxes into the system for decades - try to see them as people rather than cost centres.


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    #7195
    Retro.
    Closed Accounts Posts: 89 ✭✭Retro.


    Drug addiction will be a bigger problem after this.

    I know lads that were working full time, now they're on 350 hanging around and using


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    #7196
    Tokyo
    Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 22,655 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tokyo


    Mod: Threads merged. Please read the OP for in-thread rules and restrictions.


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    #7197
    petes
    Registered Users Posts: 8,382 ✭✭✭petes


    Retro. wrote: »
    Drug addiction will be a bigger problem after this.

    I know lads that were working full time, now they're on 350 hanging around and using

    So they weren't using before this?


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    #7198
    yosemitesam1
    Registered Users Posts: 2,948 ✭✭✭yosemitesam1


    owlbethere wrote: »
    How do you know this? How do you know the lockdown is saving lives by about 5 years?

    It's nearly entirely old people (70's-80+) with underlying conditions at risk of death due to covid. These people don't have a massive amount of time left anyway. Maybe it's a few years more or less than 5 but it's not a million miles out either way


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    #7199
    kaymin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,502 ✭✭✭kaymin


    minikin wrote: »
    Hate to break it to you but you've broken nothing new to me. I'm very familiar with the limitations of health spending in the normal course of events BUT, and this might come as a shock to you, this is not the normal course of events. However, even in the normal course of events, it is not always appropriate to use the cost-utility analysis - which is why a cost-effectiveness analysis is used instead.

    This is an emergency situation, much like the banking crisis of 2008. The state had no problem hanging that debt around our necks, it will have no problem doing the same for this existential threat too.

    We will get over it, we will recover in good time, it's only financial debt - we need to grow up and realise all states have debt. Sometimes, such as now, it's a debt incurred for good reason, other times it's not.

    We don't simply quantify the value of a person's life based on a r.o.i. equation - to do so is to renege on the social contract and to forget the contribution that person has made to society up to that point. A lot of these 'bed blockers' have worked their holes off, paying taxes into the system for decades - try to see them as people rather than cost centres.

    Covid is not an existential threats. About 0.5% die if they don't have an underlying condition.

    The economy does matter - what is the life expectancy of a third world country? That's where we will end up if we continue down the current path.


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    #7200
    minikin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭minikin


    kaymin wrote: »
    Covid is not an existential threats. About 0.5% die if they don't have an underlying condition.

    The economy does matter - what is the life expectancy of a third world country? That's where we will end up if we continue down the current path.

    What’s the percentage of those who die who have an underlying condition? Perhaps you don’t but I consider them to still be people too.

    Did we become a third world country in 2008? No, because we had access to funds from the IMF, the EU among others... you’re acting like the same won’t happen again.


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    #7201
    Retro.
    Closed Accounts Posts: 89 ✭✭Retro.


    petes wrote: »
    So they weren't using before this?

    Too much free time now and 350 to spend


This discussion has been closed.
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