Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Well look at this way , you were brushed against numerous times and still didn’t get it

Lyle wrote: »

I'm taking the info for my "wild conjecture" from The Lancet in March and the Annals of Internal Medicine from early May.

"There were 181 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure and symptom onset windows to estimate the incubation period of COVID-19. The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine."

This data is echoed by the WHO, ECDC, CDC, HPSC, etc etc. The list goes on. I'm inclined to go with the elite level scientists behind these studies, and these bodies and agencies, and will continue to base my opinions on academic, peer-reviewed research ahead of some random langer who still thinks this is a bad flu.

Unless you can cite me a paper from the last fortnight that debunks these prior papers? In which case I'll rescind my previous post and will adapt my thoughts based on that new info. Cheers.

py2006 wrote: »

or I could be asymptomatic

snowcat wrote: »

Ok. Im going to skip reading those and go with the practical evidence from countries that have eased restrictions and seen no increase in cases. Ie The rest of Europe

snowcat wrote: »

Ok. Google might help. But look at Austria Switz Germany Netherlands Spain France Sweden Czech Uk Italy Norway Denmark I could go on

biggebruv wrote: »

Is it true the virus is disappearing just read something I sky news about it’s fading away faster than they’d like because they want to make a vaccine

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You are assuming Covid is rampant in the community - that most people in the supermarkets have it? They dont and its not. Its almost eradicated in the community and there is almost no spread if someone has it. So I don't know what all the fear is about. People are consumed by fear! They're driving their cars wearing masks - this virus is not airborne! You need to be in someone's close proximity for 15 minutes to get it, not brushing past them.

This following is an advisory from the HSE.ie (How Covid spreads)
https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/472f64-covid-19-coronavirus-guidance-and-advice/

Covid spreads by spending more than 15 minutes face-to-face contact within 2 metres of an infected person

Close contact does not include someone you passed on the street or in a shop. The risk of contact in that instance is very low.

Most of the discussion around the spread of SARS-CoV-2 has concentrated on the average number of new infections caused by each patient. Without social distancing, this reproduction number (R) is about three. But in real life, some people infect many others and others don’t spread the disease at all. In fact, the latter is the norm, Lloyd-Smith says: “The consistent pattern is that the most common number is zero. Most people do not transmit.”




That’s why in addition to R, scientists use a value called the dispersion factor (k), which describes how much a disease clusters. The lower k is, the more transmission comes from a small number of people. In a seminal 2005 Nature paper, Lloyd-Smith and co-authors estimated that SARS—in which superspreading played a major role—had a k of 0.16. The estimated k for MERS, which emerged in 2012, is about 0.25. In the flu pandemic of 1918, in contrast, the value was about one, indicating that clusters played less of a role.

Estimates of k for SARS-CoV-2 vary. In January, Julien Riou and Christian Althaus at the University of Bern simulated the epidemic in China for different combinations of R and k and compared the outcomes with what had actually taken place. They concluded that k for COVID-19 is somewhat higher than for SARS and MERS. That seems about right, says Gabriel Leung, a modeler at the University of Hong Kong. “I don’t think this is quite like SARS or MERS, where we observed very large superspreading clusters,” Leung says. “But we are certainly seeing a lot of concentrated clusters where a small proportion of people are responsible for a large proportion of infections.” But in a recent preprint, Adam Kucharski of LSHTM estimated that k for COVID-19 is as low as 0.1. “Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread,” Kucharski says.

That could explain some puzzling aspects of this pandemic, including why the virus did not take off around the world sooner after it emerged in China, and why some very early cases elsewhere—such as one in France in late December 2019, reported on 3 May—apparently failed to ignite a wider outbreak. If k is really 0.1, then most chains of infection die out by themselves and SARS-CoV-2 needs to be introduced undetected into a new country at least four times to have an even chance of establishing itself, Kucharski says. If the Chinese epidemic was a big fire that sent sparks flying around the world, most of the sparks simply fizzled out.

Gavlor wrote: »

Agree with most of your post but just to point out that the 3 minute bit is Obviously global and not specific to Ireland.