Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

kiers47 wrote: »

This prediction is unlikely to pull through after the Qatar racing manager gave him a good mention in an interview to the RP. Still 50s available in a few spots.
Likely to disappear today I'd say.

Race sponsor Sheikh Fahad is set to have two runners in a bid to land the Qipco 2,000 Guineas for the first time – and it was the outsider of his duo, rather than the shorter-priced Roaring Lion, whose praises were being sung by the owner’s racing manager David Redvers on Wednesday.
Speaking at a launch lunch for the two-day Guineas festival at the Rowley Mile, Redvers asked fellow panellist, bet365's Pat Cooney, for an each-way bet on Greenham Stakes fourth Raid.
After being quoted 50-1 for the David Simcock-trained runner, Redvers said: "I'll have £100 each-way as this is the dark horse of the race for me and he worked excellently this morning.
"He was last off the bridle in the Greenham and then blew up in the last 50 yards. David has real confidence in him and I could absolutely see him finishing in the frame."

BIG talk up indeed. 25/1 with Powers and Betfair.

Wonder if he runs really well, will he be supplemented for the Derby as Jerry could not believe he was not entered with a dosage of 0.41.

1.50 Breden 2pt e/w 16/1 into 12/1 with powers
2.40 Masham star 2pts e/w 12/1 into 7/1
3.35 Raid 2pts e/w 50/1

a few quid for the first two bets.

1.50 Breden 2pt e/w 16/1 into 12/1 with powers 5th 20/1

Can't get nearer without collecting, don't like slagging jockey's but Hayley gave that horse an awful lot to do, thought at one stage she would grab 3rd or 4th.

Not to be.



I hope the trainer two entries curse is not about to strike again with Love Dreams.

5.20 Grecian Spirit 2pts e/w 14/1

I like races were the fav wins the race and the second fav is 2nd, when that happens they were mostly true run races. In Grecian's case he was 3rd in races with that senario. He then ran 2nd to a well backed 4/7 shot, infact all three races that Grecian ran in were won by odds on favs.
The step back upto 1m2f looks like it should suit on breeding. The trainer had a very quite year in 2017 with only 34 winners all season, he is however faring much better this season with 10 winners on the board already from 53 runners, he has also had 15 2nd places and 7 3rd places.Thats 32 placed horses from 53 runners albeit lower class races.

Luke morris doing 8st 4, plus the fact Luke won 2 of the 6 richest races this trainer ever won.

14/1 looks fair enough.

Jerry.

the whole year inn wrote: »

Booom nice winner

Yes some losses back from yesterday

5.35 Aussie Valentine 2pts e/w 12/1
AV has humped some weights around Naas in his five years of racing. He finished 3rd in the Lincoln here at Naas. Two years ago he tried to give Marshall Jennings 10LB and was beaten 2 and 1/4 lenghts. Tomorrow Marshall Jennings has to give AV 13LB. thats just the different direction both horses went up and down the handicap. He is also hugely better off at the weights with Katiymann who beat him in Leopardstown when AA was trying to give him 10LB.

Ok he is only 2 wins from 26 races however he was placed in no fewer than 14 of them races. He seems to run well at Naas, he is a strong traveller and hopefully the better ground brings out a small bit of improvement for his recent new trainer Mr McGUINNESS who is a dab hand with handicappers mostly.


On to the Oaks.

Friday 1st June 2018
The Oaks…..Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w

I think this is a seriously good filly. Her 3yr old form reads 131. I am really interested in colts and filly’s who win over the mile distance at the young edge of two.
Her 2yr old form reads 131. She started her career at Yarmouth of all places where she made all and duly won. Comments of race were
Made all, ridden over 2f out, driven over 1f out, going best after and stayed on well, comfortably (op 5/2). The form of the race has not worked out great with only the second horse winning so far.

On to Chantilly for the Prix d'Aumale (Group 3) (2yo Fillies) (Turf) 5 runners. Wild illusion went off 7/2. They decided to give her some cover in the small field of five runners. Two things may have happened that day
1. She hated being held up.
2. She just did not run her race that day for whatever reason.
She was only beaten 1L 3/4L.
They must have went home and realised they did the wrong thing by holding her up. Three weeks later they supplemented her for the Total Prix Marcel Boussac - Criterium des Pouliches (Group 1) (2yo Fillies) (Turf).
Here’s what the post say
However, Appleby has seen an improvement in her form at home and after a meeting with Sheikh Mohammed the call was made to roll the dice and supplement the filly.
Under a positive James Doyle ride, that gamble paid off spectacularly, as the daughter of Dubawi led early in the home straight before staying on stoutly for a 25-1 success over the previously unbeaten Polydream.
“She came forward a lot for her last run and we were delighted with her at home," said Appleby. "I spoke to his highness in depth about her and he said, 'Go for it, if you're happy with the horse'."

Fast forward to the races James Doyle takes the lead as soon as the stalls open, makes all and wins by 1L and ¾ beating France’s big hope, the unbeaten Polydream.

Make no mistake to do what she did at 2yrs old to some very well bred horses over a mile when her pedigree is packed with stamina gives her a big shout in this year’s oaks. Also her win was a second faster than the Oaks fav Happily who is 6/1. Wild Illusion has a dosage index of 0.50 which is excellent.

I am not mad on her for the 1000 Guineas as her stamina at 2yrs of age helped her beat the well bred milers but it will be much tougher as a 3yr old
They say the guineas is the best trial for the Derby and Oaks so let’s see if she tries to make all the running and more importantly will she be passed.

This is an ante post bet if the horse does not run we lose our money.

Jerry


I am not too worried over the result today as I did say her stamina let her handle the milers last year but it would be much tougher against the 3yr olds. I see Powers have pushed her out to 16s while bet365 and w.hills have her at 10s. I don't know how big a field it will be but I hope she gets to make the running.

Jerry.