Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Zubeneschamali · 15-10-2018 5:02pm

Mc Love wrote: »

The peoples vote i believe is allowing the public vote on the deal that will be offered.

and if the People say No?

Working class heroes · 15-10-2018 5:03pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

What exactly is this People's Vote supposed to decide?

Leave/Remain?

Deal or No Deal?

Corbyn or May?

Remain/frying pan/fire?

megatron989 · 15-10-2018 5:07pm

I wonder, as many here have, if the people got a second chance to vote would they vote any differently? Watching these crayon wielding children talk absolute rubbish this last year or so has left me with no confidence in their ability to see what they are walking into. That or they simply don't think anything will happen when it hits the fan.
It might well be true that in this situation they (uk) would do nothing and imagen the world would carry on. But the EU will most definitely do something if no deal wins.
Or is this really all a game and TM knows the play she's making, all laid out ahead of time, stringing along the crayon eaters in the HoC with her lunacy? Madness.

15-10-2018 5:10pm

Bit boring by now. She'll lie and bring the DUP along until the budget is done, and then really let time tick down until a vote when no politician can in good conscience vote for a no deal which would heavily impact their constituents.

There's a lot more to it, but it does feel like a customs union or whatever coming up in the next couple of months. She can't do anything else whatsoever, nor can the country really at such a late stage.

J Mysterio · 15-10-2018 5:12pm

May is literally just giving yes/ no one word answers and referring to previous answers. She has an incredible arrogance given the circumstances.

They are also totally deluded on 'carving away,' or 'breaking' NI off from the UK. Its a nonsense response to a very generous offer. NI is already different in a number of ways for gods sake. No deal is the fastest way to a United Ireland.

flatty · 15-10-2018 5:13pm

I genuinely think she's going all in with a bluffers hand here. She is considering
1 "The hand of history" as pertains to her
2 Her current position
3 The tory party
In that order, and every other consideration is a distant fourth, matter ing only how it will affect any or all of the above three.

RobertKK · 15-10-2018 5:15pm

Angela Merkel says a deal is looking hard again.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1051858448806232064?s=21

CZ 453 · 15-10-2018 5:22pm

Mary Lou speaking very well there on Sky News.

Mr.Nice Guy · 15-10-2018 5:29pm

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1051856391999287296

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1051859147787051009

Looks bad for the DUP.

lawred2 · 15-10-2018 5:41pm

So the Tories will look for other English politicians to vote against the desires of the DUP in a vote that directly impacts the DUP's own constituents in NI.

A lovely Union alright.

One to aspire to.

That's to ignore the fact that the DUP are utterly failing to represent NI as a whole in Westminster.

MrMusician18 · 15-10-2018 5:48pm

lawred2 wrote: »

So the Tories will look for other English politicians to vote against the desires of the DUP in a vote that directly impacts the DUP's own constituents in NI.

A lovely Union alright.

One to aspire to.

That's to ignore the fact that the DUP are utterly failing to represent NI as a whole in Westminster.

They'd obviously argue that the DUP isn't representing the interests of their constituents or the Union in that case.

eire4 · 15-10-2018 5:49pm

CZ 453 wrote: »

She's sticking to the keep the union stance. Can't see any deal now. Temporary backstop shafts us at some point.

No way the EU will agree to a temporary backstop. Given just how intransigent the DUP are I cannot see how a deal gets done any time soon.

lawred2 · 15-10-2018 5:49pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

They'd obviously argue that the DUP isn't representing the interests of their constituents or the Union in that case.

Well neither are any of them so that would fall flat...

Scotland and NI voted to remain.

lawred2 · 15-10-2018 5:51pm

eire4 wrote: »

No way the EU will agree to a temporary backstop. Given just how intransigent the DUP are I cannot see how a deal gets done any tie soon.

The DUP can be sidelined but that would put an end to the billion pound deal

briany · 15-10-2018 6:04pm

megatron989 wrote: »

I wonder, as many here have, if the people got a second chance to vote would they vote any differently? Watching these crayon wielding children talk absolute rubbish this last year or so has left me with no confidence in their ability to see what they are walking into. That or they simply don't think anything will happen when it hits the fan.
It might well be true that in this situation they (uk) would do nothing and imagen the world would carry on. But the EU will most definitely do something if no deal wins.
Or is this really all a game and TM knows the play she's making, all laid out ahead of time, stringing along the crayon eaters in the HoC with her lunacy? Madness.

If there was an option to remain, that would probably win. That would be the side most energised and mobilised in the vote, plus the Leave voters who have looked at what a shambles the whole negotiations have been, or people who felt like they'd been lied to about what Brexit would mean and switch sides, even if not totally happily.

But because Brexit is such a polarising issue, the anger from Leave diehards would be immense, and nobody would bother dealing with the underlying issues that lead to a Brexit vote in the first place. They'd just be happy to have the genie back in the bottle for now, even with the possibility of things exploding even worse later on.

There is no short term happy ending for Brexit. There's just a lot of misery or even more misery, so let's see if the British politicians and public opt just for a lot of misery.

Beechwoodspark · 15-10-2018 6:07pm

CZ 453 wrote: »

Mary Lou speaking very well there on Sky News.

Whatever ppl think of her, she is an excellent media performer. Probably the best of the Irish party leaders.

Call me Al · 15-10-2018 6:10pm

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Whatever ppl think of her, she is an excellent media performer. Probably the best of the Irish party leaders.

Yes she's an excellent media performer. She's never caught on the backfoot. I'd love to see her debate against Farage. That would be fascinating.
And I like the politics of neither.

Nody · 15-10-2018 6:19pm

eire4 wrote: »

No way the EU will agree to a temporary backstop. Given just how intransigent the DUP are I cannot see how a deal gets done any time soon.

Oh I think a temporary backstop for let's say 1000 years will be acceptable to the EU...

ancapailldorcha · 15-10-2018 6:32pm

megatron989 wrote: »

I wonder, as many here have, if the people got a second chance to vote would they vote any differently? Watching these crayon wielding children talk absolute rubbish this last year or so has left me with no confidence in their ability to see what they are walking into. That or they simply don't think anything will happen when it hits the fan.
It might well be true that in this situation they (uk) would do nothing and imagen the world would carry on. But the EU will most definitely do something if no deal wins.
Or is this really all a game and TM knows the play she's making, all laid out ahead of time, stringing along the crayon eaters in the HoC with her lunacy? Madness.

Petty insults are not welcome here. No more please.

murphaph · 15-10-2018 6:34pm

Nody wrote: »

Oh I think a temporary backstop for let's say 1000 years will be acceptable to the EU...

Cue the headlines of the 1000 year Reich. Pick another number ;-)

It sounds like May is preparing to go for a deal the DUP won't like. Could easily go very pear shaped and result in no deal.

Rhineshark · 15-10-2018 6:37pm

murphaph wrote: »

Cue the headlines of the 1000 year Reich. Pick another number ;-)

It sounds like May is preparing to go for a deal the DUP won't like. Could easily go very pear shaped and result in no deal.

How about 800 years? Nice bit of symbolism :P

She seems to be edging for UK-wide time-limited backstop. Aren't both the UK-wide bit and the time-limited bit out of the question? The NI time-limited certainly is but pretty sure temporary UK-wide is also out?

charlie14 · 15-10-2018 6:41pm

briany wrote: »

If there was an option to remain, that would probably win. That would be the side most energised and mobilised in the vote, plus the Leave voters who have looked at what a shambles the whole negotiations have been, or people who felt like they'd been lied to about what Brexit would mean and switch sides, even if not totally happily.
.

Even though it was widely accepted in a recent British poll that the negotiations were a shambles, it was is far from clear if there was an option to remain that it would pass. 47% in favour, 43% opposed and 10% don`t knows.

Mr.Nice Guy · 15-10-2018 6:44pm

Have a listen to John Humphrys interviewing Labour's Keir Starmer on Brexit. From 2:14 in:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/play/m0000qtl

Illuminating what the ordinary British person is exposed to by the supposedly balanced BBC. Humphrys has plenty of form when it comes to, shall we say, questionable objectivity on Brexit.

When you've got alleged impartial presenters saying "you're caving in to Brussels" over the idea of staying in a Customs Union, it's not hard to see how things have become so emotive and toxic.

charlie14 · 15-10-2018 6:50pm

Rhineshark wrote: »

How about 800 years? Nice bit of symbolism :P

She seems to be edging for UK-wide time-limited backstop. Aren't both the UK-wide bit and the time-limited bit out of the question? The NI time-limited certainly is but pretty sure temporary UK-wide is also out?

I would tend towards the view that she is looking for a time limit backstop for NI as she could sell that to the DUP.
If that is the case then isn`t there a possibility that we may come under pressure to accept it with the can just being kicked down the road ?

Rhineshark · 15-10-2018 6:56pm

charlie14 wrote: »

I would tend towards the view that she is looking for a time limit backstop for NI as she could sell that to the DUP.
If that is the case then isn`t there a possibility that we may come under pressure to accept it with the can just being kicked down the road ?

Pressure from the UK, sure, but I don't think there will be pressure from the EU. It's bad for everyone and everyone knows damn well that the UK hasn't been negotiating in good faith. They'd drop it regardless in 2021.

charlie14 · 15-10-2018 7:10pm

Rhineshark wrote: »

Pressure from the UK, sure, but I don't think there will be pressure from the EU. It's bad for everyone and everyone knows damn well that the UK hasn't been negotiating in good faith. They'd drop it regardless in 2021.

I wouldn`t be too sure that there would not be pressure from the EU to accept a time limit on a backstop that has little or no consequence for 26 of the 27.

Especially if, as seems at the moment, the backstop issue has the potential to result in either a hard Brexit or a British general election.

Captain Obvious · 15-10-2018 7:22pm

I wonder would they be so bold as to call a referendum and offer the various options for Brexit but exclude a repeal of the original referendum.

Rhineshark · 15-10-2018 7:26pm

charlie14 wrote: »

I wouldn`t be too sure that there would not be pressure from the EU to accept a time limit on a backstop that has little or no consequence for 26 of the 27.

Especially if, as seems at the moment, the backstop issue has the potential to result in either a hard Brexit or a British general election.

As it has for the last year and more.

There has been no pressure, on the contrary the other EU countries have been in full accord. And you can bet it matters to the smaller countries. If Ireland can be thrown under a bus after all this, they would know that they could be next. If they were going to chuck Ireland, they'd have done it at one of the other main moments that looked like May's gov was going to collapse.

The time limit does not benefit the EU at all. It would render the whole thing an expensive exercise in trust with the UK to delay a problem for two years, squandering the goodwill of smaller countries, playing right into the anti-EU rhetoric and ending up with a border mess anyway.

We'll see by March. But I do not believe that there will be pressure on us from the EU nor do I think it would make sense for the other countries to try apply it now.

Water John · 15-10-2018 7:45pm

Labour MP Bridget Phillipson on Sky saying a Referendum on the deal is essential.
Crispin Blunt MP Con really talking convoluted waffle. Actually cannot write what he wanted to say as it's totally unclear.

Dyr · 15-10-2018 7:45pm

Rhineshark wrote: »

The time limit does not benefit the EU at all. It would render the whole thing an expensive exercise in trust with the UK to delay a problem for two years, squandering the goodwill of smaller countries, playing right into the anti-EU rhetoric and ending up with a border mess anyway.

If you're doing business with someone who's hellbent on bankruptcy it's generally inadvisable to go offering them extended credit. The EU has no idea what kind of a clownshop Britain might be in two years, kicking the can that far down the road ain't an option

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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